The views expressed in this article are one reason why US sanctions are being crafted in such a way as to degrade, rather than to destroy, China's ability to pursue high-end chips and AI. This isn't because of any mercy on the side of the US. Rather, it's because if the US imposed a blanket ban on selling chips to China, it would, from their perspective, create the incentive for all-of-society support for the Chinese chip industry over night. That is the key to getting Chinese equipment makers the resources they need to catch up.I think so. It's "win-win" for both,on one hand Western experts assess US sanction as a success,on the other hand it become the essential driver of Chinese semiconductor indigenization.
Just saw this new CSIS article. This is Western experts assessment "skeptical that Chinese equipment firms could supply even 5 percent of the market at the 28nm node within 3 years"
I do however,agree with some of his views,such as these:
All the while, foreign chip makers will suffer catastrophic revenue decline, US's international reputation will take a huge hit for trying to destroy China's economy, and its allies would have a much harder time following through both due to the negative effects on their own economies, as well as the reputation damage from crashing the global economy from secondary effects.
By pursuing the path of degrading China's capabilities, the US is able to avoid much of this fall out. And consequently I don't think the US is doing China any favors or that it's taking a stupid approach to export controls; rather this is the best course of action it can take if it wants to slow down China at all. The alternative - not doing anything - would, sure, result in China being dependent on foreign chips for the time being; but it'd also result in China achieving 4th industrial revolution capabilities faster than the West, which is not acceptable for the US because the US believes it is engaged in an existential race to the technological singularity, and that whoever reaches that first, will dominate the world.