And again, those here would down play the significance of not having access to 3nm today, 2nm in 2025, 1.4nm in 2027. And the western expert would argue otherwise. So perhaps this is a "win-win" for both sides?? Both sides could claim victory on achieving what both sides think is important.
I think so. It's "win-win" for both,on one hand Western experts assess US sanction as a success,on the other hand it become the essential driver of Chinese semiconductor indigenization.
Just saw this new CSIS article. This is Western experts assessment "skeptical that Chinese equipment firms could supply even 5 percent of the market at the 28nm node within 3 years"
In the equipment space, Chinese equipment firms will likely supply a majority of the new equipment for fabs producing at the 90nm node or above, according to CSIS discussions with industry executives. However, the executives were skeptical that Chinese equipment firms could supply even 5 percent of the market at the 28nm node within 3 years.
I do however,agree with some of his views,such as these:
one U.S. semiconductor executive told CSIS in an interview that the Chinese government’s actions matter less than those of the United States: “The Chinese government doesn’t even need to have a ‘no American chips’ policy,” the executive said. “The U.S. government’s actions are plenty frightening to persuade Chinese firms that they should avoid buying American unless they absolutely have to.”
In reality, China’s leading lithography company, the Shanghai Micro Electronics Equipment group (SMEE) is only producing prototype machines equivalent to what ASML was producing at scale a decade and a half ago.