This is a very deep and long-term process that is at the base of current and future China semiconductor localization and growth. It is the fuel that allows China IC to grow and overcome US blockades.
US cannot block it, actually any push for decoupling will only foster it even more. A smart US (like SIA and industry guys) would have aimed at keeping their dominant position in China semi market. An ideological and blindly raging US (like Washington think tank guys) instead went exactly the other way...
I would say your last statement could be a bit subjective. Most on this forum and those in China will probably agree with you that the latest American back fired and is fueling the growth of Chinese semiconductor industry. On the other hand, those you called "think tank guys" are also happy the sanction is working as they intended, which is to stunt and slow China's attempt at catching up to the leading edge nodes.
And again, those here would down play the significance of not having access to 3nm today, 2nm in 2025, 1.4nm in 2027. And the western expert would argue otherwise. So perhaps this is a "win-win" for both sides?? Both sides could claim victory on achieving what both sides think is important.
Right, all part what I would call supply chain security to move away from unreliable foreign suppliers. On the call, they specifically talked about Chinese chip design houses making advances with new designs that are now winning market share in Chinese supply chain. That fundamentally hurts not only the Western fabless studios & IDMs but also TSMC & Samsung.
@hvpc might know about this, but I wonder what % of 28/40nm chips in Chinese supply chain are not fabbed in China or fabbed in China by TSMC. I would guess a pretty large chunk. IIRC, TSMC has a 40k wpm fab in Nanjing.
At the moment, tsmc & UMC's fab in China do have the majority of actual 28nm wafer output (65K wpm). There's also huge amount of 28nm capacity available outside of China; quite bit of those 28nm chips do end-up in Chinese industry & consumer's hands. Up to 1Q23, SMIC's 28nm actual output has been not very significant. But I am happy to hear SMIC announce during their investor call they have finally qualified new fabless guys that are trying to roll out new innovative products in the established non-leading edge market and the partnership is resulting in the fabless guys claiming marke tshare from the incumbent western-bloc fabless guys. As these fabless guys rush to roll-out new innovations, SMIC is surely to be rewarded rushed wafer orders with higher profit margin.
From the sound of things, SMIC also expects more new fabless guys to enter the picture and SMIC will then have themselves group of solid partners to utilize the large wafer capacity expansion planned for the next five years. The bifurcation of Chinese fabless/SMIC vs. the "western" fabless/foundry will, I'm sure, bring forth more innovation and competition in the mature node, specialty application segments. Competition is a good thing for the industry and the consumers, as well as for the Chinese semiconductor ecosystem. China may not have access to leading edge in the short term, but establishig a solid presence in the "mature" nodes is still a big technological step-up for China. Exciting times ahead.
