Chinese semiconductor industry

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tokenanalyst

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Jingce Electronics (300567): The order in hand of semiconductor equipment has increased significantly and entered the stage of heavy volume​


The semiconductor & new energy business is rapidly increasing, and semiconductor equipment orders hit a new high. In 2022, the company will achieve operating income of 2.731 billion yuan, +13.35% year-on-year, of which Q4 will be 910 million yuan, +42.03% year-on-year, basically in line with our expectations.

Against the background of the down cycle of the panel industry, the company has performed relatively well, mainly benefiting from the great progress made in emerging fields such as intelligent and precision optical instruments and new displays. 2) Semiconductor industry:

In 2022, the revenue will be 183 million yuan, +34.12% year-on-year, accounting for 6.69% of the revenue, +1.04pct year-on-year. Shanghai Jingtest will achieve an operating income of 165 million yuan in 2022, +49.06% year-on-year, and the volume of semiconductors/testing equipment will increase rapidly. 3) New energy: In 2022, the revenue will be 343 million yuan, +561.64% year-on-year, accounting for 12.56% of the revenue, +10.41pct year-on-year, and it will also enter the performance cashing period.

In 2023Q1, the company achieved operating income of 601 million yuan, a year-on-year -0.39%, which was basically the same. On April 14, 2023, the company announced that Shanghai Jingce had signed an order for semiconductor front-end measurement and testing equipment with customers, totaling 116 million yuan, and semiconductor equipment continued to break through. As of April 23, 2023, the company has about 2.797 billion yuan of orders in hand, including 891 million yuan in the semiconductor field (we speculate that it is mainly the front-end quantity/testing equipment), and 482 million yuan in the new energy field. The orders in hand are relatively full. Support the steady growth of income in 2023.

Comprehensive layout of display, semiconductor, and new energy, fully benefiting from the amount/testing domestic substitution acceleration As a leader in display panel testing equipment, the company is actively deploying semiconductors and new energy fields to open up room for growth. 1) Display panel inspection: The industry is still in a down cycle. The company vigorously promotes new display products such as AOI and OLED, Micro-OLED, Micro-LED, Mini-LED, as well as smart and precision optical instrument business, which is expected to hedge the industry down cycle and realize Steady growth. 2) Semiconductor quantity/testing equipment: We expect the market size of semiconductor quantity/testing equipment in mainland China to reach 29 billion yuan in 2022. KLA is the only one in the field of quantity/testing equipment, with a global market share of more than 50%, and the localization rate in 2022 is still less than 3%, which is one of the links with the lowest localization rate. The escalation of US sanctions has affected KLA's business development, and the industry will usher in the best window for domestic substitution. From the perspective of product layout, the company's quantity/testing equipment fully covers optical and electron beam testing, and it is one of the companies with the most complete product layout in China. It is optimistic that the company's equipment will be accelerated in the introduction of downstream customers, and orders will increase in volume. 3) New energy equipment: As a leader in second-tier lithium batteries, China Innovation Aviation continues to increase production capacity expansion. The target production capacity in 2025 is 500GWh, which is about 25 times the installed capacity in 2022. The company signed the "Strategic Partnership Agreement" with China Innovation Aviation, and will fully benefit from its large-scale expansion of production. The company focuses on the middle and back processes, among which the chemical composition and capacity equipment has been sold in large quantities, and the cutting and stacking machine has received batch orders. At the same time, new products such as lithium battery visual inspection system, battery assembly line and laser die cutting machine are deployed. In addition, the company actively develops cooperative relationships with other well-known battery manufacturers to further open up room for growth.​
 
Phead128

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I don't see the "national security" logic behind urging SK to not fill in the void left by Micron's absence. It appears to be soley about economic competition and market share.

If it is ultimately about economic competition, then SK will hefty demand U.S. compensation for opportunity cost, certain Chinese reciprocity/retaliation against SK, and loss of future sales to SK firms. Unfortunately, US is not in a position to offer ANY market share to offset the loss of China market.

I think if China plays it's cards right, it can effectively divide-and-conquer US-SK and still screw over Micron sales in some form or another.
 
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Eventine

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european_guy said:
Chinese smartphone makers existence is totally dependent on US whims. Qualcomm monopolizes smartphone IC, and what is not Qualcomm is (Taiwan) Mediatek that will promptly fall in line to whatever decision US will take. Even China's Unisoc depends on TSMC for manufacturing.

Chinese smartphones are not presents in US market, so for US is not a big issue to kill them. Their consumers would not be affected. They don't care about the rest of the world.



Maybe in 2 years time it will be different, but today banning Micron will expose Chine to huge and devastating retaliation.

Us will not retaliate 1 vs 1, they will retaliate 100 vs 1. They can stop Intel, Nvidia, AMD, Qualcomm, etc to sell to China with devastating effect.

The "unfair" ban of Micron by the "ugly and bad" China will provide US the narrative to make this step acceptable to Americans...and US industry will have to accept that. Geopolitics is above economy.

I know this may be controversial here, but IMHO China today is not in a position to provoke US with unilateral chip bans.
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This is one reason Chinese smart phone makers’ market share globally has largely stagnated. Strong growth today is mostly limited to the premium range as cheap phones’ margins are razor thin and the market is declining. But Chinese phone makers are too dependent on foreign technology to differentiate themselves at the high end. There’s no moat between them and the likes of Samsung, Apple, & Google because everyone uses the same hardware sources, so to create a major price or performance advantage is nearly impossible. As such, you don’t hear much about Chinese phone makers any more as Samsung & Apple continue to dominate premium phones.

That was the main difference between Huawei and the rest; they had the beginnings of what was a major technological moat via faster 5G integration (since they also build the base stations) and their own chip designs like Kirin. But the US destroyed Huawei’s phone business and the rest of the Chinese companies lack the vision and technical talent to replace it, it’s really a lesson in the need to gain technological superiority and self reliance, not just rely on cheap labor which most of the competitors now also have via Vietnam, India, etc.
 
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tokenanalyst

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Invest 500 million! Penumbra Optical Lithography Reticle and Micro-nano Optical Devices Project Signed in Nantong​


On April 21, Penumbra Optical (Nanjing) Co., Ltd. signed an investment agreement with Jiangsu Nantong Haimen Development Zone to plan and construct micro-nano optical devices and semiconductor photomask production projects, with a total investment of 500 million yuan.

According to news from Haimen Development Zone, Penumbra Optics (Nanjing) Co., Ltd. is mainly committed to the design, production and service of diffraction components, CGH, gratings, photomasks and other products. The photomask products produced by the company have made technological breakthroughs. The path of traditional nanoimprinting to make optical devices simplifies the process flow, and it is also the only company in China that has mastered the use of semiconductor technology for mass production of pure quartz structured optical products.

According to the news from Tianyancha, Penumbra Optics was established on October 29, 2020, with a registered capital of 863,158 yuan, and has received multiple rounds of financing. Investors include Yida Capital and others.

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tphuang

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Crystal growth & energy (jingsheng)
晶升股份为国内较早开展半导体级单晶硅炉产品研发及产业化的公司之一，实现了12英寸半导体级单晶硅炉国产化，
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realized domestic 12-inch semiconductor-grade monocrystalline silicon furnaces
S-TECH Co.,Ltd.等国外晶体生长供应商占国内硅片厂商采购份额的比重约为70%左右；国内晶体生长供应商主要包括公司、晶盛机电及其他供应商，合计占国内市场份额仅为30%左右。晶升股份12英寸半导体级单晶硅炉的市场占有率约为9.01%-15.63%，在半导体级单晶硅炉国内供应商中市场占有率较为领先。
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silicon manufacturers in China buy mostly foreign monocrystalline growth equipments (70%). Domestic 30%. Crystal growth account for 9 to 15.6% of 12 inch market
预计北方华创占国内碳化硅厂商采购份额的比重为50%以上；公司产品市场占有率约为27.47%-29.01%，在国内市场占据较为领先的市场份额。
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For silicon carbide, NAURA account for over 50% of market share. Crystal growth has 27 to 29% market share
据悉，晶升股份半导体级单晶硅炉主要应用于8-12英寸半导体硅片制造，完整覆盖主流12英寸、8英寸轻掺、重掺硅片制备，生长晶体制备硅片可实现28nm以上CIS/BSI图像传感器芯片、通用处理器芯片、存储芯片，以及90nm以上指纹识别、电源管理、信号管理、液晶驱动芯片等半导体器件制造，28nm以上制程工艺已实现批量化生产。
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equipment mainly used for 8 & 12 inch silicon production
can achieve 28nm wafers for CIS/BSI image sensor chips, general processor chips, memory chips, and semiconductor devices such as fingerprint recognition, power management, signal management, and liquid crystal driver chips above 90nm, and mass production has been achieved with processes above 28nm.
因设备技术能力具有先进性，晶升股份的产品生长晶体品质达到COP-FREE水平，可满足28nm工艺技术节点要求，领先于国内竞争对手，与国外竞争对手仍存在一定差距。S-TECH Co.,Ltd部分产品已可满足14nm工艺技术节点要求、PVA TePla AG产品已可满足14nm以下工艺技术节点要求。
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for future development. looking to create product that can produce wafers for 14nm process or below.
晶升股份碳化硅单晶炉包含PVT感应加热/电阻加热单晶炉、TSSG单晶炉等类别产品，主要应用于6英寸碳化硅单晶衬底，下游应用完整覆盖主流导电型/半绝缘型碳化硅晶体生长及衬底制备。
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TSSG furnace for 6-inch silicon carbide also

Looks like NAURA is the biggest domestic player for the furnaces
 
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tokenanalyst

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Generation of the small tin-droplet streams with a manipulable droplet spacing via the forced velocity perturbation​

Luo Jun (罗俊)
Lyu Shengnan (吕胜楠);
Qi Lehua (齐乐华);
Li Ni (李霓)


Research and Development Institute of Northwestern Polytechnical University in Shenzhen, School of Mechanical Engineering, Northwestern Polytechnical University

In extreme ultraviolet (EUV) sources, small tin droplets are scattered into the tin mist/disk under the irradiation of the pulsed laser to produce the EUV light. Small droplet size and large droplet spacing are required to suppress debris production to protect expensive collector mirrors. To this end, a tin-droplet generator with a capillary glass nozzle was designed and built to produce uniform tin-droplet streams with the droplet diameter less than 50 μm. Meanwhile, a forced perturbation, generated by a sandwich piezoelectric transducer, was loaded into a liquid tin jet to manipulate the droplet spacing through a stepped rod. The mono-sized tin-droplet streams with an average diameter of 42 μm were successfully produced in both the Rayleigh and the forced jet breakup regimes. A two-dimensional (2D) axisymmetric model was proposed to reveal the influence of the velocity perturbation amplitude on jet breakup patterns at different wavelengths. An F*–λ* (The dimensionless perturbation velocity amplitude F*–The dimensionless wavenumber l*) map was built, and five different droplet breakup patterns were identified based on simulations. Numerical simulations indicated that the droplet spacing could be increased by providing extra momentum to droplets from the forced velocity perturbation. Finally, by increasing the velocity perturbation amplitude, the droplet spacing was increased from ∼9Dd (droplet diameter) to ∼19Dd without significantly increasing the droplet size. This work provides a novel approach to obtaining small mono-sized tin-droplet streams with manipulable droplet spacing.

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european_guy

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latenlazy said:
Ehhhhhhhh the only reason the US hasn’t gone this direction already is because their own companies would lose so much revenue it would tank their stock prices. It’s not like China doesn’t have alternatives at that point. The alternatives aren’t as good but they’re also not unusable, and all that money going to Chinese firms instead of foreign firms would dramatically change the balance of long term trajectories. Mind which tree gets watered not which tree is bigger.
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I don't see it as a black or white case. Until today China did not retaliate and US mainly shoot themselves in the foot with a "progressive" export control that is not enough to stop China but is enough to make red alert ring loudly in China and push to accelerated localization, so more ore less the worst of both worlds from a US point of view.

But if China starts to ban US firms things can escalate quickly and China has no interest in escalate because compared to 2019 when the China 2025 target was considered fairy tale level, today we are a world apart in localization and coverage of needed technologies. Volumes still lack, but will ramp up in the next 2 years. And if I have to put a number on this, I would say 20% thanks to made in China 2025 policy and 80% thanks to US push.

No need to change players while winning.

tphuang said:
If Chinese gov't found something entirely inappropriate with Micron, do you think they should do nothing about it or expose their actions to the world?
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The World? Well, western world will know nothing, at best a side article with blurred and distorted info that will last a couple of days (do you remember nord-stream pipeline blowup?). Rest of the world? At the moment they don't play an active role in semiconductors and US never cared about opinion of rest of the world BTW.

Punish Micron because they make something inappropriate does not make sense in a war. I'm learning now with Ukraine that in war words (and concepts) like fair, wrong, right, lawful, etc have no value. At the end of the day the winner will (re)write the narrative anyhow. What it makes sense are words like useful, convenient, in our interests, etc. IMO using the Micron case to escalate is not useful to China today. Current policy pays off already, hence US hysteria.

BoraTas said:
Two major problems in this post

1- The US doesn't need any justifications to crack down on Chinese semiconductor corporations. If they can find nothing, they will accuse companies of selling products to PLA or aiding in genocide in Xinjiang. Remember what happened to Huawei and Hikvision. They were literally accused of aiding genocide.

2- Such a ban would kill American corporations. China consumes a quarter of the world's electronics and manufactures more than half of them. Many American tech corporations would lose 90%+ of their manufacturing in case China or US issues a blanket ban. And that would take a decade to recover from.
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1- It depends, is not black or white. To fully embargo China a good excuse is needed even by US. I agree to ban single companies Uighur's narrative is enough.

2- People in Whashington DC do not care about economic, at least I didn't have this impression. They gladly push some US firms under the bus if this hurts China....but because real world outside US think tanks do care, they need some good excuse to act...and bad China banning an heroic and freedom-loving US company is a good one.
 
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latenlazy

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european_guy said:
I don't see it as a black or white case. Until today China did not retaliate and US mainly shoot themselves in the foot with a "progressive" export control that is not enough to stop China but is enough to make red alert ring loudly in China and push to accelerated localization, so more ore less the worst of both worlds from a US point of view.

But if China starts to ban US firms things can escalate quickly and China has no interest in escalate because compared to 2019 when the China 2025 target was considered fairy tale level, today we are a world apart in localization and coverage of needed technologies. Volumes still lack, but will ramp up in the next 2 years. And if I have to put a number on this, I would say 20% thanks to made in China 2025 policy and 80% thanks to US push.

No need to change players while winning
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China hasn’t been adapting well because the export bans were progressive, but because they’ve had the capability to supply alternatives already built. The speed at which bans come impacts the amount of short term disruption and pain Chinese industry will feel. But they really have no bearing for overall substitution capacity and if anything harder bans just encourage faster substitution. Banning Micron and letting the US retaliate with further restrictions on their own companies at this phase mostly just speeds up adoption of Chinese solutions at this point while depleting the revenues of US firms, even if they’re not perfect substitutes .
 
In4ser

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Junior Member
China doesn’t need to ban Micron but discourage purchases. As a condition for government support, China can create a list for preferential suppliers and put Micron on the bottom to only buy from if there are no alternatives. Prioritize domestic companies, then Korean and Japanese with American last. China should also make it a point to negotiate harsh cancellation penalties.

That way, China can say it didn’t ban Micron and if Micron isn’t being purchased, it is because it’s an untrustworthy supplier. If the US retaliates by forcing Koreans to stop selling to China, then the US will get blamed and China gets compensated for breach of contract.
 
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tokenanalyst

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european_guy said:
I don't see it as a black or white case. Until today China did not retaliate and US mainly shoot themselves in the foot with a "progressive" export control that is not enough to stop China but is enough to make red alert ring loudly in China and push to accelerated localization, so more ore less the worst of both worlds from a US point of view.

But if China starts to ban US firms things can escalate quickly and China has no interest in escalate because compared to 2019 when the China 2025 target was considered fairy tale level, today we are a world apart in localization and coverage of needed technologies. Volumes still lack, but will ramp up in the next 2 years. And if I have to put a number on this, I would say 20% thanks to made in China 2025 policy and 80% thanks to US push.

No need to change players while winning.



The World? Well, western world will know nothing, at best a side article with blurred and distorted info that will last a couple of days (do you remember nord-stream pipeline blowup?). Rest of the world? At the moment they don't play an active role in semiconductors and US never cared about opinion of rest of the world BTW.

Punish Micron because they make something inappropriate does not make sense in a war. I'm learning now with Ukraine that in war words (and concepts) like fair, wrong, right, lawful, etc have no value. At the end of the day the winner will (re)write the narrative anyhow. What it makes sense are words like useful, convenient, in our interests, etc. IMO using the Micron case to escalate is not useful to China today. Current policy pays off already, hence US hysteria.



1- It depends, is not black or white. To fully embargo China a good excuse is needed even by US. I agree to ban single companies Uighur's narrative is enough.

2- People in Whashington DC do not care about economic, at least I didn't have this impression. They gladly push some US firms under the bus if this hurts China....but because real world outside US think tanks do care, they need some good excuse to act...and bad China banning an heroic and freedom-loving US company is a good one.
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I don't think they will ban Micron as whole but more like they are going to "review" in the name of "national security" (because its take two to play tango) some of Micron products. But is likely that the Chinese are no pretty happy about Micron lobbying against Chinese memory companies.
 
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