Ehhhhhhhh the only reason the US hasn’t gone this direction already is because their own companies would lose so much revenue it would tank their stock prices. It’s not like China doesn’t have alternatives at that point. The alternatives aren’t as good but they’re also not unusable, and all that money going to Chinese firms instead of foreign firms would dramatically change the balance of long term trajectories. Mind which tree gets watered not which tree is bigger.
Chinese semiconductor industry
- Thread starter Hendrik_2000
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Micron is the company that instigated the US Government to start the restrictions on Chinese semiconductor companies. The US has blacklisted hundreds of entities and he will continue regardless. They are not interested in compromises or economic benefits they just aim for the annihilation of the Chinese tech sector. This has to be stopped. In memory China has a strong hand to play now. YMTC products have reached world class level and they are ramping up production with domestic tools. In Dram China is not self sufficient yet but SK Hynix produce the majority of its Dram in factories located in China. If it stops selling Dram to China the Chinese government can easily retaliate so SK Hynix would commit suicide just to prove its loyalty to the US. It is true that the US can retaliate in other areas but so can China ( a ban on Apple in China, order phone makers to ditch Qualcomm for Mediatek, stop buying Boeing and buy Airbus instead). So I think China should go ahead with total ban on Micron.
I didn't say that SK companies should be rewarded for anything. I agree with you.
I think that China just does not have to ban them akin to Micron because frankly the likes of SK Hynix did not actively lobby the sanctions on Chinese industry unlike Micron. If they decide to comply with regulations and stop selling to China, then their loss - there will be *some* shortage in the near future but later YMTC will replace them and these companies will forever lose the largest memory market in the world. SK Hynix and Samsung also shouldn't expect that their fabs will be allowed to work if they don't export to China, of course. If they grow some balls, then they can still operate and if that route also causes tensions with the US, it is even better - make the US coerce those companies into complying so that they also hop onto the de-Americanization train. In both cases, China will be fine.
This sounds like to be a case of total capitulation, if we consider it beyond the simplistic headlines.
It is the Americans who are forcing the South Koreans to capitulate.
If South Korea does not capitulate to the China market now by choosing China, then who knows what is next for them.
Nothing will replace the China market for their goods from Samsung and Hynix.
If they do not capitulate to the China market now, then they will have to capitulate to the China market later. Provided they survive.
After all these years, you still think the US needs justification to ban exports to China or add new Chinese companies to the sanctions list? If they could afford to ban all semicon companies from China, they would have done it long time ago. For example, Qualcomm makes 2/3rd (!!) of their revenue from China - you think they can survive a ban? US destroying their own companies would be a huge present for China - yes, the current Chinese offerings are worse but with demand and captive market these companies will be able to iterate much faster. That would also solve the issue of software support as developers will have to optimize for Chinese hardware if they don't want to lose profits.
So yeah, the US did not ban them because they can't do that without destroying their own industry in return. That's why the only suggested US response so far has been to coerce Korean companies to take it for the "team".
Please blur or delete the image sections which contain your products' Serial Number
i think the fact that Biden admin has shown its hands through its FT contact by pressing South Koreans show how weak their hand is here. I'm sure they are facing huge blowbacks right now from SIA over measures that are killing them in the midst of an industry wide slowdown.
It's important to also not overstate what America can do to a "peer adversary". Stopping Qualcomm sales to China would kill Qualcomm. At this point, most Chinese phone makers should have a year of CPUs in stock and can continue to buy from Mediatek. Getting other countries on board takes time. Any Chinese phone makers without emergency plans for a full ban scenario will get what they deserve. If China ends up losing Xiaomi in exchange for America losing Qualcomm, Nvidia & AMD, that's a fine exchange.
The issue with China's smartphone buildup is the lack of solid foundation. Rebuilding that smartphone top layer for China is easy. Rebuilding the upstream supply chain for America will be much harder.
btw, here is Micron situation
revenue down 53% YoY on its most recent quarter
Have fun losing another 1/4 off that for being a sleazy company
If Chinese gov't found something entirely inappropriate with Micron, do you think they should do nothing about it or expose their actions to the world?
antiterror13
Brigadier
I think we need to make some assumptions on how much Americans would be willing to escalate if China bans Micron.
Given the recent news about the US pressuring the Koreans to stop them from selling to China, I think we can say that the maximum response could be a total ban of Korean memory exports to China.
Even if the fabs are in China, if the Chinese government seized them, although justifiable, it would be very bad publicity and send a bad signal to foreign investors
I think the gov should cover its bases first before going for a total Micron ban. Alternatively, China could go for a limited scale ban which would allow both countries to better control the escalation-response ladder
The escalation-response ladder is already here. We can see that the Chinese goverment is not willing to talk with Amerians any more. We need win-win relationship. And if it is going to be only one will lose, it is better to be a lose-lose one. Anyway , let's be prepared for a better world. In the history, the cold-war time is good for most engineers, works, farmers etc. All we have to do is to go through the hard time at the beginning. The decouple process will be painful for both side. But China will not let American take adavantanges any more , unless US make some meaningful retreat, which we cannot see.
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