Chinese semiconductor industry

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gelgoog

Lieutenant General
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The US has a really weak hand on this one. China can just claim that Micron was pushing around JHICC to stifle competition, and then either slap a massive fine on Micron, or enforce a massive embargo on their products.

Also, good luck convincing SK Hynix and Samsung to embargo China. SK Hynix has basically all their production capacity in China, they are building new fabs in South Korea but they are not operational yet, and Samsung has quite a substantial part of fabrication in China as well. If they try to embargo China in DRAM and Flash, China can just claim they are an illegal cartel, arrest their fabrication assets in China, and give them to Chinese DRAM and Flash companies so they can operate them.
 
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tokenanalyst

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Puyuan Jingdian (RIGOL): At present, the company can already feel the changes of industrial recovery​


Puyuan Precision Electronics pointed out that the focus is on three areas, namely communications, new energy, and semiconductors. For Puyuan Precision Electronics, in terms of market growth, it is necessary to see the development of old markets and the development of new markets. These three sectors correspond to relatively large market space.

The growth of consumer electronics and industrial electronics is certain. From the perspective of test and measurement, although the market prosperity cannot be directly linked to sales volume, it is certain that it will drive the increase in industry demand. We have already sensed these signs of recovery and obtained new business opportunities. This year's industrial market and technology sector are relatively positive and positive for the business growth of Puyuan Precision Electronics.

Puyuan Jingdian said that there will be some differences between the recovery of the capital perspective and the industry perspective. The semiconductor industry is a booming industry in China, and its industrial layout and industrial scale are expanding year by year. In the field of colleges and universities, the School of Integrated Circuits, the School of Microelectronics and the School of Micro-Nano have clearly expanded their investment budgets in the field of education. Therefore, from education to scientific research to industrialization, from semiconductor technology research to integrated applications of semiconductor chips, for electronic measurement The instrument industry will have a positive impact.

According to Puyuan Jingdian, the three fields of AI, semiconductors, and communications are all very hot fields, and the scale of the industry is very large. Related to the technology sector, instruments are essential, such as AI, from computing power, to CPU, GPU, servers, data transmission, high-speed optical fiber communication, and high-speed wireless communication. From the perspective of semiconductors, there are many categories, but all semiconductors have to be tested. After the application of semiconductors, there will be scalable and integrated testing solutions, so the requirements are very diverse, such as semiconductor testing machines, There are many kinds of ATE equipment, and the differences are huge.

Puyuan Precision Electronics itself does test and measurement. In the test unit, there are already related applications, including third-generation semiconductors, high-speed storage testing, and DDR testing. High-end products can better match the needs of customers. Therefore, there is no doubt that it is related to AI, semiconductors and communications, and it will be involved in everything from technology research and development to product production.

From the perspective of industrial recovery, the purchase volume of some communication customers has gradually increased since the second half of last year. There is a saying that in the recovery of the industry, the equipment comes first. At present, the company can already feel the corresponding changes.

In the future, the company will still adhere to the high-end product strategy. The significance of the company's listing on the capital market science and technology innovation board is to pursue technological breakthroughs and innovations. This year, we will focus on high-bandwidth + high-resolution products at the same time, and will launch high-bandwidth digital oscilloscopes above 10GHz and 12bit high-resolution digital oscilloscopes with 6GHz bandwidth.

Puyuan Jingdian pointed out that the launch of high-end digital oscilloscopes above 10GHz this year is certain, and the company's overall R&D progress is progressing in an orderly manner, but there is no doubt that last year we were affected by logistics transportation and delayed delivery brought about by the complex external environment , the company's R&D team overcame the relevant difficulties after recovery, and followed the rigorous IPD integrated product development process to ensure the deliverability and progress of the product launch. The bandwidth above 10GHz is a high-end digital oscilloscope sequence recognized by the global industry, and we are challenging the new highest milestone in the Chinese industry.

It is reported that with the gradual improvement of the grade of Puyuan Precision Electronics products, the proportion of our optional accessories is also increasing at the same time. In 2022, it has reached about 11% of the main business income. The software includes not only software for specific protocol testing, but also platform software, which is more aimed at the needs of customers for overall solutions.

The company is currently making some breakthroughs at the hardware level, and our "technology + market" two-wheel drive strategy requires us to focus more on the actual application of customers. For example, in many industrial measurement field applications, what customers need is a test system with high density, small size, programmable, and self-built.

At present, the company's microwave and radio frequency products and digital oscilloscope products are all high-margin product lines, especially digital oscilloscopes. With the release of dividends from the self-developed core technology platform, the digital oscilloscope product line has grown from a level lower than the company's average gross profit rate. One of the most important engines for improving the company's gross profit margin. Taking the information disclosed in the company's annual report as an example, the company's gross profit margin for digital oscilloscopes in the fourth quarter of 2022 has reached more than 58%. We believe that microwave radio frequency products and digital oscilloscope products will continue to maintain the current high gross profit status in the future.

Puyuan Jingdian said that the high-end products of the company's digital oscilloscope product line are two platforms of 2GHz and 5GHz. In 2022, the sales revenue will increase significantly, and the revenue scale has reached more than 100 million yuan. This part will continue to grow in the next few years, further driving Continuous optimization of digital oscilloscope product structure.

In addition to the continuous development of high-end products, DHO series products are also worthy of attention, which will rapidly expand the company's market share in the economical market, and at the same time complete the replacement of old products in this end of the market.

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Overbom

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It's not like we are in a huge memory chip recession or anything. I'm sure there are just huge China sized market everywhere for Micron, Samsung & SK to go to. Oh wait, there is only one China. If they want to hand China to YMTC, then YMTC will gladly ramp up its production to 300k in a couple of years and have 20% world market share. YMTC should be working on plans for its next mega 200k wpm fab.
China should be 100% prepared before it pulls the trigger on Micron because we all know that S.K companies will then be banned by the US from selling to China.

That means that when the ban happens, YMTC should have enough production capacity to supply all the chips required by the Chinese market. No, YMTC can't supply the market wait for new fabs in a few years, thing.

The bottom line should be that no significant disruption of chips happens in the Chinese market. In addition, Chinese market regulators should be watching YMTC like hawks in case it tries to be brave and goes for monopolistic high-prices on its products
 

Moonscape

Junior Member
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Part of the problem could be that Micron makes both DRAM and Flash, while YMTC only makes Flash. CXMT is the manufacturer that makes DRAM, but it's relatively more behind the state-of-the-art compared to YMTC. I don't think CXMT is producing DDR5 in large quantities yet, for example.

So there might be a DRAM shortfall if China bans Micron entirely.

A Flash-only ban on Micron could make more sense at this point, and there's probably more US government shenigans possible with Flash, which stores data long term and has a controller with
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, than with DRAM, which only stores data temporarily.
 
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PopularScience

Junior Member
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Part of the problem could be that Micron makes both DRAM and Flash, while YMTC only makes Flash. CXMT is the manufacturer that makes DRAM, but it's relatively more behind the state-of-the-art compared to YMTC. I don't think CXMT is producing DDR5 in large quantities yet, for example.

So there might be a DRAM shortfall if China bans Micron entirely.

A Flash-only ban on Micron could make more sense at this point, and there's probably more US government shenigans possible with Flash, which stores data long term and has a controller with
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, than with DRAM, which only stores data temporarily.
50% of SK Hynix output is in China. Maybe they should ban America instead.
 

Overbom

Brigadier
Registered Member
A Flash-only ban on Micron could make more sense at this point, and there's probably more US government shenigans possible with Flash, which stores data long term and has a controller with
Please, Log in or Register to view URLs content!
, than with DRAM, which only stores data temporarily.
You have to be ready for anything. China might want a Flash-only ban but that doesn't mean that the US has to play with China's logic. It could decide to retaliate by banning DRAM sales to China

That's why you should have all your bases covered before pulling the trigger
 

antiterror13

Brigadier
The US has a really weak hand on this one. China can just claim that Micron was pushing around JHICC to stifle competition, and then either slap a massive fine on Micron, or enforce a massive embargo on their products.

Also, good luck convincing SK Hynix and Samsung to embargo China. SK Hynix has basically all their production capacity in China, they are building new fabs in South Korea but they are not operational yet, and Samsung has quite a substantial part of fabrication in China as well. If they try to embargo China in DRAM and Flash, China can just claim they are an illegal cartel, arrest their fabrication assets in China, and give them to Chinese DRAM and Flash companies so they can operate them.

The US would just compensate all the losses of Samsung and SK Hynix of not selling the DRAM to China .... easy peasy, right ? or not?
 

european_guy

Junior Member
Registered Member
The people that spoke about Micron case in China are convinced that Chinese gov't has strong proof that Micron is doing something shady and this will end up in a full ban for any Micron products in China. If Samsung & SK aren't allowed to replace NAND and DRAM on iphones, then Apple can make use of YMTC and CXMT product. If they don't want to or can't do that, then they don't have to sell phones in the greater China area. Chinese smartphone makers will gladly take over Apple's market share.

Chinese smartphone makers existence is totally dependent on US whims. Qualcomm monopolizes smartphone IC, and what is not Qualcomm is (Taiwan) Mediatek that will promptly fall in line to whatever decision US will take. Even China's Unisoc depends on TSMC for manufacturing.

Chinese smartphones are not presents in US market, so for US is not a big issue to kill them. Their consumers would not be affected. They don't care about the rest of the world.

It's not like we are in a huge memory chip recession or anything. I'm sure there are just huge China sized market everywhere for Micron, Samsung & SK to go to. Oh wait, there is only one China. If they want to hand China to YMTC, then YMTC will gladly ramp up its production to 300k in a couple of years and have 20% world market share. YMTC should be working on plans for its next mega 200k wpm fab.

Maybe in 2 years time it will be different, but today banning Micron will expose Chine to huge and devastating retaliation.

Us will not retaliate 1 vs 1, they will retaliate 100 vs 1. They can stop Intel, Nvidia, AMD, Qualcomm, etc to sell to China with devastating effect.

The "unfair" ban of Micron by the "ugly and bad" China will provide US the narrative to make this step acceptable to Americans...and US industry will have to accept that. Geopolitics is above economy.

I know this may be controversial here, but IMHO China today is not in a position to provoke US with unilateral chip bans.
 
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