Japan finally revealed the extent of chipmaking equipment export restrictions. Not too detailed yet but it is clear that Japan has decided to jump on the bans bandwagon. However, I would expect Japanese companies would try everything they can to drag their feet and delay the implementation of such restriction as Japan desperately needs China for competing against Dutch and the US.
Chinese semiconductor industry
- Thread starter Hendrik_2000
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the only one that matters is lithography, and even then, all it means is that ASML becomes a monopoly and Nikon/Canon are gone.
Do you think China has a TEL replacement by now? If so which specific companies are they (other than AMEC and Naura)?
From my mind.'
Naura on its own has a lot.
AMEC in the etching market
Mattson in oxidation and RTP.
LeadMicro in ALD.
Piotech in deposition.
KingSemi and now ACM research in the track market.
ACMR and PNCS in the cleaning tools.
Huafeng micro, Capcon and others in the bonding-debonding market.
Huaying Micro on the edge trimming market.
Semitronix, ACCOtest and others in testing equipment.
CETC.
U-Precision in the hybrid bonding market.
Japanese companies can say goodbye to the Chinese market for good. They will never again regain the share of the Japanese market that they once had.
"Japan said it would impose export controls on six categories of equipment used in chip manufacturing, including cleaning, deposition, lithography and etching."
Not clear if metrology is also in the group. Regarding materials and chemicals, the real danger, it seems they are saved from export control. This is good news for China.
Lithography aside, China can already localize or will do this year most of Japan stuff up to 28nm, and within 2024 maybe also up to 14nm. NAURA and AMEC are going to be the AMAT and LAM of China.
The only weak point in equipment (apart from lithography) is metrology, where there is still not a Chinese KLA. Several Chinese companies make metrology equipment, but they are still far from KLA and also from Japan Advantest, Hitachi and similar.
As I wrote earlier, the real long-term and effective ban was done in 2018 on EUV litho, instead these ones by Biden administration are only effective for a short time span, say a couple of years at best, and arrive very late. The same bans 3 years ago would have been hugely impacting, today much less so.
Japanese are just shooting themself in the foot and probably they know it.
There are Chinese companies in CD SEM and EBI already. I've heard of another company doing X-ray metrology too. However, the big missing piece is optical metrology, which to me is inverse problem black magic. I don't understand it.
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