Chinese semiconductor industry

tacoburger · Mar 10, 2023

theorlonator said:
Congress already backed off on a bill to stop purchases of things containing Chinese chips iirc

Yeah because they're convinced that this approach of banning high end exports will work to massively slow China down or stop development all together. It's when this kind of technological roadblocks stop working than congress will get desperate and try other methods. I imagine some massive new sanctions weeks after the news that China got their own DUV and even more after they get their EUV.

Probably why it's so important to keep things secret. Even if China got EUV today, they will probably never announce it, even if it's catheric to rub it in to the West. You'll just infer it from the sudden amount of high end chips coming out of chinese products suddenly.

Quan8410 · Mar 10, 2023

Why should China need to be scared of the US sanctions when they got EUV. The west is the one that need to be scared. They are not the only one that know how to sanctions. If China bans rare earth and Russia ban Neo gas, the whole chip industry will be China + Russia only and western tech will collapse. China will not be silenced when they got EUV, just like they was silenced when they got space station and just gave the middle finger to the US.

FriedButter · Mar 10, 2023

Quan8410 said:
Why should China need to be scared of the US sanctions when they got EUV. The west is the one that need to be scared. They are not the only one that know how to sanctions. If China bans rare earth and Russia ban Neo gas, the whole chip industry will be China + Russia only and western tech will collapse. China will not be silenced when they got EUV, just like they was silenced when they got space station and just gave the middle finger to the US.

I don’t think we will hear any news until the production of EUV and maybe even the DUV is already deep into mass production. They aren’t going to rock the boat preemptively so the West launches an overreaction that will cause headaches for short term plans.

tacoburger · Mar 10, 2023

Quan8410 said:
Why should China need to be scared of the US sanctions when they got EUV. The west is the one that need to be scared. They are not the only one that know how to sanctions. If China bans rare earth and Russia ban Neo gas, the whole chip industry will be China + Russia only and western tech will collapse. China will not be silenced when they got EUV, just like they was silenced when they got space station and just gave the middle finger to the US.

Because China sells a lot of their semiconductor outside china. Imagine if America passes a law saying that they will sanction, ban or fine any product that has a chinese chip in it. That's very much on the more drastic side of things but there's about a thousand other things that can make chinese companies life a lot harder.

And yes, China can punch back, but that just means that both sides will have a black eye. It's not like America has proven that it willing to hurt itself as long as it hurts China more. Not to mention that as much as China to doing to wean itself off America techologny and reliance, America is doing the same to China/Russia. By 2025-2030, whenever the EUV comes online, both countries will be much less reliance on each other. It's hubris to think that America can't replace rare earth suppliers over time, much like how China is replacing it's semiconductor industry with domestic options.

siegecrossbow · Mar 10, 2023

tacoburger said:
Because China sells a lot of their semiconductor outside china. Imagine if America passes a law saying that they will sanction, ban or fine any product that has a chinese chip in it. That's very much on the more drastic side of things but there's about a thousand other things that can make chinese companies life a lot harder.

And yes, China can punch back, but that just means that both sides will have a black eye. It's not like America has proven that it willing to hurt itself as long as it hurts China more. Not to mention that as much as China to doing to wean itself off America techologny and reliance, America is doing the same to China/Russia. By 2025-2030, whenever the EUV comes online, both countries will be much less reliance on each other. It's hubris to think that America can't replace rare earth suppliers over time, much like how China is replacing it's semiconductor industry with domestic options.

Easy, just establish firms in South East China and claim that they are made in Vietnam. Folks in the U.S. will be more than happy to pay for those, just like they do for other electronics.

theorlonator · Mar 10, 2023

tacoburger said:
Because China sells a lot of their semiconductor outside china. Imagine if America passes a law saying that they will sanction, ban or fine any product that has a chinese chip in it. That's very much on the more drastic side of things but there's about a thousand other things that can make chinese companies life a lot harder.

And yes, China can punch back, but that just means that both sides will have a black eye. It's not like America has proven that it willing to hurt itself as long as it hurts China more. Not to mention that as much as China to doing to wean itself off America techologny and reliance, America is doing the same to China/Russia. By 2025-2030, whenever the EUV comes online, both countries will be much less reliance on each other. It's hubris to think that America can't replace rare earth suppliers over time, much like how China is replacing it's semiconductor industry with domestic options.

I don't see any American investment or industrial policy into refining rare earths. It's not just mining.

tacoburger · Mar 10, 2023

siegecrossbow said:
Easy, just establish firms in South East China and claim that they are made in Vietnam. Folks in the U.S. will be more than happy to pay for those, just like they do for other electronics.

Modern US sanction laws cover those sort of loopholes. It's one of the oldest trick in the book. Even if it does work, it still involves a lot of work and there's always the possibility of said loopholes getting patched out and your company being cut off overnight.

theorlonator said:
I don't see any American investment or industrial policy into refining rare earths. It's not just mining.

There are. Not a lot of movement now, but will probably ramp up as relationships between China-America get worse. Also, it's not like it needs to be America, they can easily get one of their client states to do it for them. Russia thought that Europe won't be able to find replacement to their oil and gas too....

siegecrossbow · Mar 10, 2023

tacoburger said:
Modern US sanction laws cover those sort of loopholes. It's one of the oldest trick in the book. Even if it does work, it still involves a lot of work and there's always the possibility of said loopholes getting patched out and your company being cut off overnight.

There are. Not a lot of movement now, but will probably ramp up as relationships between China-America get worse. Also, it's not like it needs to be America, they can easily get one of their client states to do it for them. Russia thought that Europe won't be able to find replacement to their oil and gas too....

They will keep the loop holes open because there will be no substitution otherwise. If they can roll back regulations on solar panels, they can roll back regulations on chips. You forget that anti-China reeing is political brownie points only. When it actually starts hurting they'll weasel out of it with some madeup excuse.

olalavn · Mar 10, 2023

tacoburger said:
Bởi vì Trung Quốc bán rất nhiều chất bán dẫn của họ bên ngoài Trung Quốc. Hãy tưởng tượng nếu Mỹ thông qua luật nói rằng họ sẽ xử phạt, cấm hoặc phạt bất kỳ sản phẩm nào có chip Trung Quốc trong đó. Đó là rất nhiều về khía cạnh quyết liệt hơn của mọi thứ nhưng có khoảng một nghìn thứ khác có thể khiến cuộc sống của các công ty Trung Quốc khó khăn hơn rất nhiều.

Và vâng, Trung Quốc có thể đáp trả, nhưng điều đó chỉ có nghĩa là cả hai bên sẽ bị đen mắt. Nó không giống như Mỹ đã chứng minh rằng họ sẵn sàng làm tổn thương chính mình miễn là làm tổn thương Trung Quốc nhiều hơn. Chưa kể đến việc Trung Quốc làm gì để loại bỏ sự phụ thuộc và công nghệ của Mỹ, thì Mỹ cũng đang làm điều tương tự với Trung Quốc/Nga. Đến năm 2025-2030, bất cứ khi nào EUV đi vào hoạt động, cả hai quốc gia sẽ ít phụ thuộc vào nhau hơn. Thật kiêu ngạo khi nghĩ rằng Mỹ không thể thay thế các nhà cung cấp đất hiếm theo thời gian, giống như cách Trung Quốc đang thay thế ngành công nghiệp bán dẫn của họ bằng các lựa chọn trong nước.

because China has banned the export of rare earth manufacturing technology... rare earths are available all over the world.... but the production technology is very few countries that possess it comprehensively..

I just tell you... Huawei's high-end Kirin is back... U.S will automatically understand China has EUV..

you said China sells a lot of chips to the international market.... but you forgot the China market?

CMP · Mar 10, 2023

theorlonator said:
I don't see any American investment or industrial policy into refining rare earths. It's not just mining.

That's because mining is the easy part. The US and Australia subsidize the mining and then ship the ores to China for processing. The high value added part.

tacoburger said:
Modern US sanction laws cover those sort of loopholes. It's one of the oldest trick in the book. Even if it does work, it still involves a lot of work and there's always the possibility of said loopholes getting patched out and your company being cut off overnight.

There are. Not a lot of movement now, but will probably ramp up as relationships between China-America get worse. Also, it's not like it needs to be America, they can easily get one of their client states to do it for them. Russia thought that Europe won't be able to find replacement to their oil and gas too....

Europe still hasn't. They're paying 4-5x for American LNG, the pricing of which is causing Europe to deindustrialize rapidly (and most of those factories are never coming back). Some of those factories have gone to the US and others have gone to China. Macron has already complained about this to the US, but I doubt the US intends to reverse a trend that benefits itself.

And then beyond that vastly overpriced American oil and gas, of which there is only very limited supply, the shortfall of imports to Europe is being made up by Russian oil/gas that goes through processing in China and India first. Hence, it's Chinese/Indian, not Russian. In other words, just a technicality and loophole. It takes some of the value added work away from Russia, but demand still exceeds supply, so the Russian oil/gas is selling for near-Brent prices.

Chinese semiconductor industry

tacoburger

Junior Member

Quan8410

Junior Member

FriedButter

Colonel

tacoburger

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siegecrossbow

General

theorlonator

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tacoburger

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siegecrossbow

General

olalavn

Senior Member

CMP

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