Chinese semiconductor industry

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european_guy

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What is your way of outsmarting

My way of outsmarting is:

1. Analyze the current balance of forces in IC industry with objectivity and clear eye and no nationalism spirit. This a drug that can only lead to wrong judjment.

2. Try to gain time, gain as much time as possible delaying things. US is pushing to speed up and escalate, China should de-escalate with the aim of gaining time. US has a sense of urgency because is well aware that time is gold here.

3. US bans have an effect on the so called US "allies". China should take advantage of it and try to divide them even more, attracting and engaging US allies. Instead an attack on US allies will only enforce unity among them, with great US joy.

I don't think he means now to ban ASML DUV, but when domestic options are available.

As for the C919, yes it contains a large amount of foreign parts, but while replacing those parts with domestic parts is not trivial, it's easier than mastering the skills and tech required as a designer and integrator, just like Boeing and Airbus.

Of course starting from scratch, a successful project like C919 is a big step toward tech independence. But I disagree that China IC industry is behind C919. I think they are ahead of C919 project regarding industrial base, supply chain, level of independence and, of course, commercial success and market penetration.
 

FairAndUnbiased

Brigadier
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Develop mature nodes first, then ban mature nodes from the US and its allies. Doing it before domestic capabilities exist would be a strategic mistake for obvious reasons. The US has its hands tied on banning the supply of mature nodes - which would be the "counter" move to maximize damage to China's industries - because it doesn't want its companies to implode over night. However, you can bet there are people in the US who'd be willing to make that trade because they figure it'd hurt China even more, so the arms race to see who could remove their reliance on the other is on. The strategy for the US and its allies would be to move electronics manufacturing out of China and invest in other markets like India; then they could shift the gravity of chips demand and in so doing, make a ban on mature nodes much easier.

China wins if it builds up 28 nm+ capacity before US companies can successfully disengage. China loses if the US and its allies successfully disengage before it's able to build up mature node capacity, because then the collapse of Chinese tech. companies on the world market will happen any way.

Companies like Xiaomi, Oppo, Huawei, ZTE, DJI, etc. are nothing without chips. Even the electric vehicle companies, the green energy companies, and the quantum computing and biological technology companies will be devastated if China does not secure mature nodes capacity before the US and its allies pull the plug. This is how dangerous this ultimately is - the vulnerability China has to a chips embargo is acute and this is why it needs to be an all of society effort.
I'd classify it as which capabilities China can master.

If China develops EUV first, then all bets are off. Least likely though.

If China has immersion ArF manufacturing capability, mobile and desktop is safe.

If China has dry ArF manufacturing capability, advanced industrial and supplies are safe. You can even make 2012 level server chips at
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, which is possible with dry ArF double patterning. So IMO, fully mastering dry ArF should be the bottom line goal as once you have server chips, you can keep your IT industry developing, and keeping the IT industry alive is the key.

If China has only KrF manufacturing capability, then only industrial chips like power/analog/MCU are safe. This is the worst scenario because it means that China's IT industry is vulnerable to enemy sanctions and it will appreciably slow down China's rate of innovation, not just eliminate some companies.
 

ACuriousPLAFan

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I'd classify it as which capabilities China can master.

If China develops EUV first, then all bets are off. Least likely though.

If China has immersion ArF manufacturing capability, mobile and desktop is safe.

If China has dry ArF manufacturing capability, advanced industrial and supplies are safe. You can even make 2012 level server chips at
Please, Log in or Register to view URLs content!
, which is possible with dry ArF double patterning. So IMO, fully mastering dry ArF should be the bottom line goal as once you have server chips, you can keep your IT industry developing, and keeping the IT industry alive is the key.

If China has only KrF manufacturing capability, then only industrial chips like power/analog/MCU are safe. This is the worst scenario because it means that China's IT industry is vulnerable to enemy sanctions and it will appreciably slow down China's rate of innovation, not just eliminate some companies.
So which level is China at, as of now?
 

Weaasel

Senior Member
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Have to point out that most customers of Korean semiconductor equipment in China are Korean companies. Otherwise they're in a similar situation as China, but worse.
China has a significantly more advanced semiconductor manufacturing equipment industry than South Korea does. From the equipment used to refine silica into silicon through to wafer production equipment, all the way to equipment used for deposition, ion implantation, and lithography as well. I would also add that when it comes to ancillary materials and substances that are or critical importance in IC chips manufacturing, China is also more advanced than South Korean. Nanta Opto, for example, can produce photoresists that can be utilized for even the highest resolution DUVi lithography...

South Korea had, until Japan placed sanctions on it following the South Korean supreme Court ruling against Mitsubishi Heavy Industries, been content just doing fab work through Samsung Electronics and SK Hynix. The Japanese 2019 restrictions and controls placed on it for etching chemicals, fluorinated polyamides, and photoresists was the kick up the butt that made them greatly increase their attention towards having a greater involvement in the semiconductor and IC chip supply chain besides just fabs ..
 

Strangelove

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South Korea chip sales to China almost halve in January under US pressure

By GT staff reporters Published: Feb 02, 2023 09:37 PM


Visitors gather at the booth of Samsung at the Consumer Goods exhibition area during the third China International Import Expo (CIIE) in Shanghai, east China, Nov 7, 2020. A significant number of companies participate for three consecutive years in the CIIE.Photo:Xinhua

Visitors gather at the booth of Samsung at the Consumer Goods exhibition area during the 3rd China International Import Expo (CIIE) in Shanghai, on November 7, 2020. File photo:Xinhua

South Korea's semiconductors export to China, its largest trade partner, almost halved in January, impacted by the US' stepped-up chip war against China. But Chinese experts said South Korean chipmakers can't afford to lose the massive Chinese market.

They urged South Korea not to follow the US government in tightening chip export controls, and should continue to maintain global industrial and supply chain stability together with China.

The Ministry of Trade, Industry and Energy announced on Wednesday that South Korea's exports in January fell 16.6 percent year-on-year to $46.3 billion. Chip sales, the country's top export item, plunged 44.5 percent to $4.8 billion.

"Prices of core semiconductor components like DRAM, NAND and memory chips plunged as demand weakened and backlogs piled up, heavily damaging overall chip exports," it said in a press release on the South Korean government website.

In January, South Korea's total exports to China tumbled by 31.4 percent to $9.2 billion, the eighth consecutive monthly decline.

Sales of semiconductors to China slid 46.6 percent, while exports of petrochemical products to China dropped 22 percent, according to the South Korean ministry.

Along with falling chip exports came higher inventories at leading chipmakers including South Korea's Samsung and SK Hynix. US chip export curbs disrupted global chip supplies while global demand for consumer electronics plunged amid recessionary expectations in some developed countries, Xiang Ligang, a veteran telecom industry observer, told the Global Times.

In the fourth quarter of 2022, SK Hynix posted a loss for the first time in 10 years, according to a press release the company sent to the Global Times on Wednesday. Revenues stood at 7.699 trillion won ($6.3 billion), while the net loss was 3.524 trillion won.

Regarding exports of US semiconductor equipment to China, the company said during third-quarter earnings call in October that it would work closely with governments, customers and partners to prepare against external uncertainties and ensure business continuity, according to a transcript of the meeting.

South Korean chip firms may have difficulty in restoring lost export shortly whatever measures they take, Xiang said, and their operations may face greater challenges if they lose the Chinese market.

Chipmaking is an industry that requires close global cooperation. The US takes the lead in chip design, European companies such as ASML provide advanced manufacturing equipment, Japan has many upstream materials like photoresist, while South Korea is an important memory chip producer and the island of Taiwan dominates the foundry market.

However, South Korea faces increasing pressure from the US to join a chip circle excluding China. Japan and the Netherlands reportedly agreed to a chip control deal with the US.

Some South Korean firms have facilities for making NAND flash memory chips in China while a large proportion of dynamic random access memory (DRAM) chips are produced in South Korea and then exported to China, according to Han Xiaomin, general manager of Jiwei Insights in Beijing.

South Korean chipmakers may relocate their manufacturing to other countries such as Singapore and Vietnam so as to continue supplying China to maintain their share in the Chinese market, Han said, adding that "this would affect South Korea's foreign trade and local employment.
 

tokenanalyst

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1. "if the US were to block 20% of advanced process products [i.e. advanced chips], we would reciprocate by blocking 80% of mature process products"
(...and make US happy in the process. US target is the technological decoupling of US and their vassal states from China, this will only make their job far easier)
I think he is saying " If you are not going to sell your best we are not going to allow you to monopolize what we already produce". China would not be in this situation if their tools makers had a bigger market share of their own home market at least in the mature older nodes or if China was 100% independent in the 90nm to 250nm nodes. The first thing that US overpaid think tankers pointed out as a reason for exports controls was the monopoly of US tools companies in China. In other words the pointed to use China own home market as a weapon against China.

I don't think China needs to go 100% independent. But a least the need to be closer 90% in old nodes, sensors, mems and photonics. Closer to 70% in newer nodes 28 or below and they should definitely de-Americanize their semiconductor supply chain no because "US hatred" but because is too risky.

I don't think Chinese goverment have to do much policy here, because the most of same tools used for mature nodes are the same tools used for newer nodes below 28nm. US tools companies are not going to get export licenses anytime soon as long Estevez is in power, remember he doesn't care about profits or jobs, his words.
 
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