Chinese semiconductor industry

weig2000 said:

In many ways, he reminds me of certain people/member, with decades of experience in the semiconductor industry, working in China but not originally from mainland China. He can give you a lot of very professional opinions, generally more pessimistic based on current and/or short term data and facts. These types of people generally don't know how the larger system works in China nor have good visibility of the bigger and more comprehensive picture, and also don't have a very good grasp of the intangibles. People should be respectful of their opinions and professional knowledge, but not necessarily have to agree with their judgement in the longer term, because that simply involves a lot more factors and variables.

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tphuang said:

I will just say one thing about this guy on QQ. His article got referred to me on twitter from a guy that's clearly a Lam employee. Which tells me Leslie himself is a Lam employee. There are clearly part of his commentary that is just divorced from reality and would only make sense from the perspective of an employee of a non-Chinese company (most likely Lam or another American one) that wants China to keep bowing down and buying tools from them.

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tphuang said:

Hmm, I don't know if Huawei is willing to give up that much. Giving up cellphone business is a lot different than giving up cloud, data center and ai. All of which requires a lot of CPU and GPU. I just see a great future for companies that can produce chips for them and aren't concerned about being put on entity list. I think both Moore threads and loongson would do great here. The former already has a good product that smic can produce and is looking to build up. The latter controls all of its own ips so aren't afraid of being sanctioned.

This is what you do in America if you want to cut headcount but don't want to do expensive layoffs. Plenty of people will leave Intel from this.

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european_guy said:

Here some interesting bits (translated with google, sorry)

以目前推进国产设备最积极的中芯国际为例，2021年的新厂中芯京城国产化率只有25%，这还是在近几年花大力气帮所有Vendor做认证的情况下的现状——因为要采购国产设备，得先经过大量测试，认证合格才能采购。另一方面，这两年几乎所有Fab都将认证标准大幅度降低，2023年的新招标，在政府的要求之下，最多也只能将国产化率拉到45~50%，并且这50%都属于相对容易攻克的部分。
Take SMIC, which is currently the most active in promoting domestically produced equipment, as an example. The localization rate of the new factory in Beijing in 2021 is only 25%. Because if you want to purchase domestic equipment, you have to go through a lot of tests and pass the certification before purchasing. On the other hand, in the past two years, almost all fabs have significantly lowered the certification standards. Under the government's request, the new bidding in 2023 can only raise the localization rate to 45-50% at most, and this 50% They are all relatively easy to overcome.

(as it was obvious, Chinese government went in...IMHO it should had done it well before than just the last 2 years)


良率拉升需要时间，以中芯国际为例，其28nm含美线良率在85%左右，实现25%国产化率的非美线良率不到七成，最好的结果是可以拉到75% It takes time to increase the yield rate. Taking SMIC as an example, its 28nm yield rate with American lines is about 85%, and the yield rate of non-American lines that achieves 25% localization rate is less than 70%. The best result is that it can be pulled to 75%

(As I read it, without US suppliers the 28nm line, can reach 75% yield instead of 85%. This is not such a bad result at all, it means that the de-americanized line works, regarding his worries on the production costs I don't see it as a sensible point in this moment and for the next several years too).



中芯国际于去年底采购的30多台用于28nm以上的NXT1970以及1965CI型号DUV浸润式光刻机，将于2024年陆续到货，这30多台光刻机也就是中芯京城，中芯东方，深圳与天津四个新建Fab所需要的设备。More than 30 NXT1970 and 1965CI model DUV immersion lithography machines purchased by SMIC at the end of last year will arrive in succession in 2024. These more than 30 lithography machines are SMIC Beijing, SMIC The equipment needed for the four new Fabs in Dongfang, Shenzhen and Tianjin.

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作者记得2001年第一次踏上祖国土地
The (article) author remembers setting foot on the motherland for the first time in 2001

(maybe he is not from mainland China)

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FairAndUnbiased said:

another thing is that some people just don't think the same way we do.

For some people, when they meet a challenge, their first reaction is, this is interesting.

For some people, when they meet a challenge, their first reaction is, omfg this is sooo hard just pay me and let me go home already.

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Paul, I also connected with you on LinkedIn. I do not want to talk about my work too much on Twitter, but I am right in the middle of US semi equipment business selling to China. Even during pandemic, I visited China three times, visiting the customers there.

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