Chinese semiconductor industry

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FairAndUnbiased

Brigadier
Registered Member
Here some interesting bits (translated with google, sorry)

以目前推进国产设备最积极的中芯国际为例,2021年的新厂中芯京城国产化率只有25%,这还是在近几年花大力气帮所有Vendor做认证的情况下的现状——因为要采购国产设备,得先经过大量测试,认证合格才能采购。另一方面,这两年几乎所有Fab都将认证标准大幅度降低,2023年的新招标,在政府的要求之下,最多也只能将国产化率拉到45~50%,并且这50%都属于相对容易攻克的部分。
Take SMIC, which is currently the most active in promoting domestically produced equipment, as an example. The localization rate of the new factory in Beijing in 2021 is only 25%. Because if you want to purchase domestic equipment, you have to go through a lot of tests and pass the certification before purchasing. On the other hand, in the past two years, almost all fabs have significantly lowered the certification standards. Under the government's request, the new bidding in 2023 can only raise the localization rate to 45-50% at most, and this 50% They are all relatively easy to overcome.

(as it was obvious, Chinese government went in...IMHO it should had done it well before than just the last 2 years)


良率拉升需要时间,以中芯国际为例,其28nm含美线良率在85%左右,实现25%国产化率的非美线良率不到七成,最好的结果是可以拉到75% It takes time to increase the yield rate. Taking SMIC as an example, its 28nm yield rate with American lines is about 85%, and the yield rate of non-American lines that achieves 25% localization rate is less than 70%. The best result is that it can be pulled to 75%

(As I read it, without US suppliers the 28nm line, can reach 75% yield instead of 85%. This is not such a bad result at all, it means that the de-americanized line works, regarding his worries on the production costs I don't see it as a sensible point in this moment and for the next several years too).



中芯国际于去年底采购的30多台用于28nm以上的NXT1970以及1965CI型号DUV浸润式光刻机,将于2024年陆续到货,这30多台光刻机也就是中芯京城,中芯东方,深圳与天津四个新建Fab所需要的设备。More than 30 NXT1970 and 1965CI model DUV immersion lithography machines purchased by SMIC at the end of last year will arrive in succession in 2024. These more than 30 lithography machines are SMIC Beijing, SMIC The equipment needed for the four new Fabs in Dongfang, Shenzhen and Tianjin.

View attachment 106373


作者记得2001年第一次踏上祖国土地
The (article) author remembers setting foot on the motherland for the first time in 2001

(maybe he is not from mainland China)
He's Taiwanese, so he loves being managed by Japanese and other Taiwanese. Author actually replies to random comments from nobodies. If he's actually such a great expert with so much experience, would he care about the opinions of nobodies? So you can tell that this is a hit piece.

An actual SME like @tinrobert doesn't give a shit about the opinions of random nobodies. He has his opinion, take it or leave it.
 

daifo

Major
Registered Member
There was no coming out. You can't hide when they're looking for you. Huawei was on their shit list as of 2009, how the fuck is that Huawei's problem for "coming out"? The only way Huawei doesn't "come out" is for Huawei to be an unimportant company with no useful IP or market share. Extend that to China as a whole. So how the hell is that better than being sanctioned?

You didn't assign responsibility for escalation correctly thus your conclusion is wrong.

The sequence of events is not "Huawei boasted, US sanctioned, thus Huawei is at fault for boasting. The solution is to submit." It is "Huawei did nothing except normal commercial activities. US got paranoid and struck first with sanctions. Thus it is US fault and the solution is to not only recover but to strike back."

Huawei was always on the list because they reverse engineer/stole many of their early wire / optical equipment and software. It was a open secret in the industry and they were able to push out everyone else with super low prices. For the most part everyone still gave them a pass.

They cross the rubicon when they started to directly challenge the US for what they consider national security... Iran, 5 Eyes, higher tier nato countries. Mix in Trump, US politics, public attention span, trade war. and media, Huawei was bound to get a good beating. They could of lost some face and withdrew the bids. You can say it's Huawei right to do this or that... sure but if you don't got the chips, you got no hand to even play.
 

FairAndUnbiased

Brigadier
Registered Member
Huawei was always on the list because they reverse engineer/stole many of their early wire / optical equipment and software. It was a open secret in the industry and they were able to push out everyone else with super low prices. For the most part everyone still gave them a pass.

They cross the rubicon when they started to directly challenge the US for what they consider national security... Iran, 5 Eyes, higher tier nato countries. Mix in Trump, US politics, public attention span, trade war. and media, Huawei was bound to get a good beating. They could of lost some face and withdrew the bids. You can say it's Huawei right to do this or that... sure but if you don't got the chips, you got no hand to even play.
So Huawei should withdraw bids... And then what? They can get triggered by Huawei participating in standards selection too, stop R&D? They can get triggered by Huawei doing literally anything except closing. So best choice is just to preemptively close Huawei? How about if they say if China doesn't arrest Xi Jinping and send him to the US for trial they'll sanction even more, is the solution to arrest Xi Jinping?

Huawei submitted their source code to the UK for testing, that is 99% of the time sufficient. Microsoft did the same for China. There's nothing more to do.

One thing I learned in my life is that you don't need to try to understand the reasoning behind a bully's behavior because bullying is not rooted in logic and thus impossible to rationally understand. You can only deter a bully by inflicting more damage than they can tolerate.
 

bzhong05

New Member
Registered Member
Here some interesting bits (translated with google, sorry)

以目前推进国产设备最积极的中芯国际为例,2021年的新厂中芯京城国产化率只有25%,这还是在近几年花大力气帮所有Vendor做认证的情况下的现状——因为要采购国产设备,得先经过大量测试,认证合格才能采购。另一方面,这两年几乎所有Fab都将认证标准大幅度降低,2023年的新招标,在政府的要求之下,最多也只能将国产化率拉到45~50%,并且这50%都属于相对容易攻克的部分。
Take SMIC, which is currently the most active in promoting domestically produced equipment, as an example. The localization rate of the new factory in Beijing in 2021 is only 25%. Because if you want to purchase domestic equipment, you have to go through a lot of tests and pass the certification before purchasing. On the other hand, in the past two years, almost all fabs have significantly lowered the certification standards. Under the government's request, the new bidding in 2023 can only raise the localization rate to 45-50% at most, and this 50% They are all relatively easy to overcome.

(as it was obvious, Chinese government went in...IMHO it should had done it well before than just the last 2 years)


良率拉升需要时间,以中芯国际为例,其28nm含美线良率在85%左右,实现25%国产化率的非美线良率不到七成,最好的结果是可以拉到75% It takes time to increase the yield rate. Taking SMIC as an example, its 28nm yield rate with American lines is about 85%, and the yield rate of non-American lines that achieves 25% localization rate is less than 70%. The best result is that it can be pulled to 75%

(As I read it, without US suppliers the 28nm line, can reach 75% yield instead of 85%. This is not such a bad result at all, it means that the de-americanized line works, regarding his worries on the production costs I don't see it as a sensible point in this moment and for the next several years too).



中芯国际于去年底采购的30多台用于28nm以上的NXT1970以及1965CI型号DUV浸润式光刻机,将于2024年陆续到货,这30多台光刻机也就是中芯京城,中芯东方,深圳与天津四个新建Fab所需要的设备。More than 30 NXT1970 and 1965CI model DUV immersion lithography machines purchased by SMIC at the end of last year will arrive in succession in 2024. These more than 30 lithography machines are SMIC Beijing, SMIC The equipment needed for the four new Fabs in Dongfang, Shenzhen and Tianjin.

View attachment 106373


作者记得2001年第一次踏上祖国土地
The (article) author remembers setting foot on the motherland for the first time in 2001

(maybe he is not from mainland China)
The author (Leslie Wu) is from Taiwan and has worked for TSMC. I would be slightly suspicious about his assessments as he posted this very same article on Zhihu a few times in the past but has contained a lot of self-contradictions and misjudged claims (that are still present in this version) including claims that the US would not bother sanctioning China's SMEE because it produces what he calls "low-end" DUV technology so there is no need to use national security as an excuse to not disclose its development progress, yet it was placed on the BIS list last year along with ICRD nonetheless - if they're not making progress, then why bother sanctions? He also said that 28nm domestic production will "only likely" begin in 2030, but he later said China could make 7nm chips in 2030, which again is a glaring contradiction. Interesting still, even the most pessimistic analysts like him put advanced production at around 5-7 years.

But he definitely made good points on investment semiconductor tools - but again, these are points largely based on hindsight. Calls for indigenous production would be considered heretical in 2014 because it was all about good ol' globalization and comparative advantage.
 

henrik

Senior Member
Registered Member
The first quantum chip production line in China

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Equipments I'm able to identify from the video

Mask Aligner from SUSS Germany
View attachment 106362

Thermal process machine from Ultech Korea
View attachment 106368

ALD machine from Yunmao China
View attachment 106363

Heating Microscope from Hesse-instruments Germany
View attachment 106367

Microscope from Olympus Japan
View attachment 106366

Those foreign machines need to be localized rapidly.
 

FairAndUnbiased

Brigadier
Registered Member
The author (Leslie Wu) is from Taiwan and has worked for TSMC. I would be slightly suspicious about his assessments as he posted this very same article on Zhihu a few times in the past but has contained a lot of self-contradictions and misjudged claims (that are still present in this version) including claims that the US would not bother sanctioning China's SMEE because it produces what he calls "low-end" DUV technology so there is no need to use national security as an excuse to not disclose its development progress, yet it was placed on the BIS list last year along with ICRD nonetheless - if they're not making progress, then why bother sanctions? He also said that 28nm domestic production will "only likely" begin in 2030, but he later said China could make 7nm chips in 2030, which again is a glaring contradiction. Interesting still, even the most pessimistic analysts like him put advanced production at around 5-7 years.

But he definitely made good points on investment semiconductor tools - but again, these are points largely based on hindsight. Calls for indigenous production would be considered heretical in 2014 because it was all about good ol' globalization and comparative advantage.
So he has essentially no idea what is going on inside SMIC or any of the tool plants.
 

henrik

Senior Member
Registered Member
He's Taiwanese, so he loves being managed by Japanese and other Taiwanese. Author actually replies to random comments from nobodies. If he's actually such a great expert with so much experience, would he care about the opinions of nobodies? So you can tell that this is a hit piece.

An actual SME like @tinrobert doesn't give a shit about the opinions of random nobodies. He has his opinion, take it or leave it.

@tinrobert is just some guy who copies information from here, for the purpose of writing his articles elsewhere.
 

tokenanalyst

Brigadier
Registered Member
Huawei was always on the list because they reverse engineer/stole many of their early wire / optical equipment and software. It was a open secret in the industry and they were able to push out everyone else with super low prices. For the most part everyone still gave them a pass.

They cross the rubicon when they started to directly challenge the US for what they consider national security... Iran, 5 Eyes, higher tier nato countries. Mix in Trump, US politics, public attention span, trade war. and media, Huawei was bound to get a good beating. They could of lost some face and withdrew the bids. You can say it's Huawei right to do this or that... sure but if you don't got the chips, you got no hand to even play.
Iran was just an excuse, any other company would have just got a big fine and whatever that have "stolen" could have been settle in court with patent lawsuits in Europe and the US were Huawei had a big market share. The real issue was:
- the US didn't have a competitor in the market.
- If Huawei gained too much market share of the telecom market because Huawei being a Chinese company would have been difficult to make them collaborate in "intelligence activities".
-And the biggest sin of all, they enter the US market being a Chinese company and for the Chicken Hawks in the US that is a worst crime that disrespecting the 2th amendment. At the point the fate of Huawei was sealed in 2014.
 

bzhong05

New Member
Registered Member
The author (Leslie Wu) is from Taiwan and has worked for TSMC. I would be slightly suspicious about his assessments as he posted this very same article on Zhihu a few times in the past but has contained a lot of self-contradictions and misjudged claims (that are still present in this version) including claims that the US would not bother sanctioning China's SMEE because it produces what he calls "low-end" DUV technology so there is no need to use national security as an excuse to not disclose its development progress, yet it was placed on the BIS list last year along with ICRD nonetheless - if they're not making progress, then why bother sanctions? He also said that 28nm domestic production will "only likely" begin in 2030, but he later said China could make 7nm chips in 2030, which again is a glaring contradiction. Interesting still, even the most pessimistic analysts like him put advanced production at around 5-7 years.

But he definitely made good points on investment semiconductor tools - but again, these are points largely based on hindsight. Calls for indigenous production would be considered heretical in 2014 because it was all about good ol' globalization and comparative advantage.
He also said in the article that the BIS knows "a hundred times more" than what we know on the internet and that all of China's technological progress is widely known to the US so there is really need to keep China's backwards technology secret - again, why bother sanctioning SMEE or ICRD then?

I don't think anyone has the absolute, full picture of the industry because the supply chain is so sophisticated and there are a lot of communication barriers between fabs, fabless, equipment companies, and even material suppliers. I would be extremely suspicious of anyone who claims they know the whole picture. In an article he previously wrote (link here -
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), he claimed that no one on the internet knows more about the industry than he is, which raises some eyebrows as his Zhihu account not only covers semiconductors but from economics and geopolitics and in almost all of his answers he likes to claim to be an expert in said realm and look down on other answers, calling them unprofessional or lacking insight (
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).
 
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