I respond with humor because it's almost a joke article. How would he know any of that, as yield is proprietary data? either he's a liar or will have a lawsuit incoming soon. What is the process node and die size for 25% yield? Smaller process and bigger die usually has lower yield. So any yield number comes with conditions. Samsung's yield issues for instance were highly specified down to which exact chip was being produced.He said a lot of things in that article. I'm curious how he can claim what he claims. For instance he said the yield for SMIC's deAmericanized line is only 25%. Really?
The US will add Xiaomi, Tencent, Lenovo, etc to the entity list eventually. There is no avoiding fate for the traditional big tech in China. They'll all get Huaweied.
What's required now is leapfrogging and pivoting across the barrier that is the US export controls. Subsidizing the domestic semiconductor industry beyond just able to provide mature tech is a waste of money.
Loongson's newer processors use 28nm and under nodes and Moore Threads use 12nm.
Those processors are made using American, Japanese and Dutch equipment. Therefore they cannot supply Huawei and are vulnerable to sanction.
Huawei cannot work with Longsoon or Moore Threads. Huawei cannot work with any well known domestic architecture. Huawei also cannot work with SMIC because that company's production lines use Dutch and Japanese equipment. What you need is the following: All Chinese equipment including lithography machines (Currently such production lines do not exist for mass production, as far as I know). All Chinese CPU architecture and IP (Must be manufactured on 90nm and lower). All Chinese software ecosystem to support it (Still in infancy, not sure if Chinese OS can take off). And you need it to be competitive in terms of performance. This day has been known and coming since 2020. The mountain is extremely high to climb. It can be climbed, but it will take a long time and the question is whether the will exists. It might be easier for China to pursue leapfrog technologies instead.
There was no coming out. You can't hide when they're looking for you. Huawei was on their shit list as of 2009, how the fuck is that Huawei's problem for "coming out"? The only way Huawei doesn't "come out" is for Huawei to be an unimportant company with no useful IP or market share. Extend that to China as a whole. So how the hell is that better than being sanctioned?Dirty little secret is that companies like bytedance, tencent, alibaba, lenovo etc are heavely invested by western companies/banks/funds, the likely hood of them being ban is less in ordinary circumstance than pure Chinese companies like huawei or companies with lower western investments.
Part of the ban besides knocking Chinas tech and economic ambition , it to also prevent a Chinese attempt to invade Taiwan. As long as there is no war, China will get the consumer chips. China just needs to hide and bide for more time at this point to be self sufficent. IMO, there may have been some miscalulation with "coming out" too soon especially with Huawei then seeing their entire supply chain wrecked.
There was no coming out. You can't hide when they're looking for you. Huawei was on their shit list as of 2009, how the fuck is that Huawei's problem for "coming out"? The only way Huawei doesn't "come out" is for Huawei to be an unimportant company with no useful IP or market share. Extend that to China as a whole. So how the hell is that better than being sanctioned?
You didn't assign responsibility for escalation correctly thus your conclusion is wrong.
The sequence of events is not "Huawei boasted, US sanctioned, thus Huawei is at fault for boasting. The solution is to submit." It is "Huawei did nothing except normal commercial activities. US got paranoid and struck first with sanctions. Thus it is US fault and the solution is to not only recover but to strike back."
IMHO. tools, tools, tools nothing but tools. Between Chinese liberals and gradualist like this author is why Chinese companies are in this situation. semiconductor manufacturing equipment, EDA and semiconductor materials do not develop in vacuum, they need a virtuous cycle to grow and develop, is necessary for local companies to adopt local tools. The government could had forced the use of SMEE frontend machines to spur their development, at least their I-line and Krf line, at least in certain nodes, regardless the opinion of ASML, but they decided for fabs to select their tools on their own or use the bidding system to do that.Did anyone see this post? He's extremely pessimistic:
Did anyone see this post? He's extremely pessimistic: