On other semiconductor fronts, has there been any news on photonic/optical chips and other semiconductor materials? Quantum computing already has its own thread, so the news on the former is greatly appreciated.
Chinese semiconductor industry
- Thread starter Hendrik_2000
- Start date
- Status
YMTC was getting ready for a second plant and that requires additional orders, which a big client like Apple would bring. But once you lose all the American clients at the same time + see lower prices across the board, then it's going to be tough.
Things are already tough from the point of view of servicing your American tools. Then you factor in losing your oversea clients and memory market prices collapsing, not a great time for YMTC right now.
I do agree with that Bloomberg is a terrible source at this point since their comments have repeatedly been contradicted by the Dutch. It seems like administration is using Bloomberg as a leak to pressure Dutch & Japanese. I also do think it's likely they've agreed to a framework on something which will happen over time. There is no reason at this point to think all DUVi are banned or that after service support or people clause have been incorporated, since the Dutch have been explicit that they only want this to be about advanced chip production and cause no disruption to the regular supply chain (which would happen I think if 28nm production DUVi are blocked). And frankly, that would go beyond what even US sanctions have done (which is just 16nm).
The fact that ASML says no expected change to its 2023 China revenue says a lot. No reason to expect things will change immediately. Now, the Dutch have effectively pushed the ball to the court of EU since they need to get the Germans to sign on also and passed through EU.
I don't think it's needed. This thread is a good place to get all the knowledge on semiconductor related stuff.
The fact that the Dutch and the Japanese don't want to disclose the details suggests that there is a lot of fine print in the deal.
We'll have to wait and see with time what it actually means in practice. If past announcements are any indication, it suggests a lot of loopholes and special conditions.
That said, Europe and Japan are both colonies of the US. They may resist a bit but in the end they will always capitulate. China needs to support SMEE and other litography companies on a war-footing.
Finally, it's not clear what other things the US can do against China now. Litography is their most powerful card to play, but it's also the last one of any serious impact.
We'll have to wait and see with time what it actually means in practice. If past announcements are any indication, it suggests a lot of loopholes and special conditions.
That said, Europe and Japan are both colonies of the US. They may resist a bit but in the end they will always capitulate. China needs to support SMEE and other litography companies on a war-footing.
Finally, it's not clear what other things the US can do against China now. Litography is their most powerful card to play, but it's also the last one of any serious impact.
antiterror13
Brigadier
Yeap, they have used all the cards ... and China haven't even started yet (no major retaliations or banning yet)
Other card that I can think of probably civilian aircraft engine, and probably (not 100% sure) ultra highly advanced CNC machine ?
do you guys think that "SWIFT" is another card that the US haven't used?
The CNC machine should be a dead end.
I was thinking something like medical devices or laboratory equipment. But that is kind of like small fish. Besides, some of that stuff probably banned already too.
The financial card of SWIFT would be self-defeating. China already has a electronic currency, no need for SWIFT there. Also China establishing currency arrangements with other countries, who share the same suspicions towards American intentions.
What can the Americans do next, what else can they ban, nothing really comes to mind. Nothing that really could make an impact or get noticed.
They could start to restrict people to people contact, that would be a weird one.
The Americans boast that they welcome immigrants and that is how they will beat China because they have a larger pool of talent, in their minds the whole world, to recruit talent from. Seems to me half of these candidates come from China, and not domestic or international affirmative action programs. The same China that they want less contact with. It's like they want slaves to work in the laboratory and do basic search.
So I expect nothing else to really happen for a few months, or even years, other the endless droning of propaganda and ignorance with the media and politicians.
They just want a better deal and if Bloomberg is right it seems they got their deal. Probably a deal that the US will not completely kill those prestige sectors in the Netherlands and Japan. Because outside of ASML im not sure what household high tech brand we own over here that gives international prestige.
Being more involved in math/crypto and newbie in semiconductors can say that most math competitors from America are Chinese, just look at IMO teams where two Chinese teams compete for 1st place but still the mainland being better. Suppose this might be also the case for chips design as well. That said I have friends from China and they said most Chinese dream to study you know where
Can you link nice beginner's lithography book for newbies to understand better what you are talking about, and do you know what ppl can do to support independent technologies like RISC V, products/companies working/selling outside of China (know it's too early but still..) ? Like for instance using open source Linux distros Vs proprietary OS.As far as know there isn't yet a RISC V version of a raspberry pi or at least not one know internationally?Being more involved in math/crypto and newbie in semiconductors can say that most math competitors from America are Chinese, just look at IMO teams where two Chinese teams compete for 1st place but still the mainland being better. Suppose this might be also the case for chips design as well. That said I have friends from China and they said most Chinese dream to study you know where
Once they can create and push something like a RISC V raspberry pi the open source community might jump in fast and start porting software just so they can start tinkering on those boards.
The book i ordered "The essential guid to semi conductors" from Jim Turley from what i gathered its old like 2 decades old but it is allegedly a nice introduction to the subject. Haven't had the time to read it yet.
Upper tier engineering grad schools are 1/2 Chinese 1/2 Indian, with token white student here and there. Not too unusual for TAs to receive and answer questions after class in Mandarin. More difficult for Chinese PhD students nowadays bc hard to get funding.
If the US can get more engineers from India they will be more willing to drop/ban international Chinese. We'll see how that goes for them.
- Status