Chinese semiconductor industry

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FairAndUnbiased

FairAndUnbiased

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Petrolicious88 said:
Japan is not being forced into this. It initiates and willingly works together with the US on many of these initiatives against China. It is in Japan's own self interest keep China down. Having a powerful China right next door is so good for Japan?
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Japan is in a very bad position with Nikon being squeezed by ASML from the top (logic, memory) and SMEE from the bottom (displays, packaging, power, analog, RF).

They can either pump money into zombie companies, close lithography divisions and lose the tech forever, or enter the Chinese market to immediately displace ASML if ASML gets banned. 2/3 are bad for Japan, 1 is bad for US, guess which option was chosen? Thus they're a vassal.
 
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Overbom

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Petrolicious88 said:
Japan is not being forced into this. It initiates and willingly works together with the US on many of these initiatives against China. It is in Japan's own self interest keep China down. Having a powerful China right next door is so good for Japan?
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As with all matters, this isn't about China vs Japan/Netherlands/S.Korea/UK/Germany/France/Taiwan etc.

Its chess player China vs chess player US. Due to deeper accumulation, the US simply has more (disposable) chess pawns to play. The real opponent isn't the numerous chess pawns, but the one chess player commanding them

IMO Japan joining the sanctions means that Japan's IC industry is destined to be annihilated in the medium-term
 
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Overbom

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Full Western tech war against China is on
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EU to stand with US in ‘depriving China of the most advanced chips’, trade official says​

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  • You will always find Europe by your side when it comes to ensuring our common security in technology,’ Thierry Breton, EU internal-market commissioner, says
  • He also urges a closer EU-US alignment on rare earths to ‘reduce collective reliance on Asia’
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A senior European Union trade official said on Friday that the US had the bloc’s “full” commitment to the goal of choking China’s semiconductor industry.
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“We fully agree with the objective of depriving China of the most advanced chips”, Thierry Breton, the EU’s internal-market commissioner, said at the Centre for Strategic and International Studies. “We cannot allow China to access the most advanced technologies.”
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Breton made his remarks just hours before reports emerged that US President Joe Biden had struck a deal with the Netherlands and Japan to restrict exports of some advanced chipmaking machinery to China
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“You will always find Europe by your side when it comes to ensuring our common security in technology,” Breton added, warning that any action should be “limited to what is necessary from a security point of view”.
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“I see a very strong alignment between EU and the US on this agenda,” Breton said of restricting China’s access to technologies like microchips, quantum computing and artificial intelligence.
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“We worked together on 5G, cybersecurity to remove high-risk suppliers from our networks. And we are following closely the ongoing Chinese investment into European critical infrastructure on semiconductors”.
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9dashline

9dashline

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sndef888 said:
They used to pretend it was about human rights. Now they're going full mask-off.
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Yup, first it was backdoors and spying, something something IP theft, or forced tech transfer allegations.. then it was muh ugyers and hooman rights..

Now they dont even bother... infact it is USA that backdoored the world and spying on everyone, its US that is invalidating patients and forcing ASML and TSMC to tech transfer, and as far as human rights, just ask how that went for the natives and soon ask the Chinese Americans still living in 5eyes what human rights they will have left.
 
tphuang

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Overbom said:
Full Western tech war against China is on
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yeah, but SCMP is trash on stuff like this and saying that you are on board with sanctions can mean a lot of things.
We don't have details of what is sanctioned and frankly SCMP has even less clue. And they are as bad as Bloomberg in sensationalizing things. At end of the day, EU doesn't get to decide anything. The individual countries do. Implementation will take some time because Dutch wants to get cooperation from Germans that they will not supply Chinese chipmakers. That will take sometime. And the Dutch are not in a hurry to push that along.



Anyways, I made a table of what I think China's demand for different types of CPU is based on the domestic market and some exports. I also made some guesstimates on how many wafers will be required to fully fulfill those demands.

This does not include GPUs. My conclusion is that if SMIC gets to 50k wpm of production at SMSC by sometimes in 2024. I don't think too unreasonable estimate, since hvpc thinks that SN1 fully ramped at 35k by end of last year and have enough ASML scanners but are just lacking other tools. I'm guessing 18 months is enough time for them to find some advanced tools to another 15k wpm of advanced node production.

If 50% of that capacity is used for CPUs and the remaining for smaller chips, GPUs, IoT SoCs and others, then that's still 300k wafer a year. It's enough to cover some phones, most of the desktop market (which are basically workplace desktops that are part of the 50million machine domestic replacement program), 1/3 to 1/2 of server CPUs and laptop. On top of this, more of the server CPUs are likely designed by Chinese chipmakers and produced by TSMC & Samsung. This is terrible news for Intel & AMD. But it becomes bad for even TSMC & Qualcomm. If they go beyond that, then even they can fill more of the tablet, laptop & smartphone market, it would be devastating for TSMC & Qualcomm & Nvidia.
Screen Shot 2023-01-27 at 5.47.22 PM.png
My guess is that 2022 was the start of decline of Intel & AMD in Chinese market. Things will get worse in 2023 and spread to TSMC/Qualcomm/Nvidia by 2024. 2025 is when Huawei whisper expect 7nm 5G chips to be on Huawei phones, so I think that's a pretty good estimate of when Chinese CPUs will make dent in the smartphone market.
 
tphuang

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I warn that we are getting more off track with articles that are high on hyperbole and low on facts. I'm going to start deleting articles that don't offer anything new and self pity posts after that if they continue to get posted.

As Paul said
https://twitter.com/i/web/status/1619110421218340867
Let's wait for more facts to come out since this is going to slowly get unveiled.
 
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paiemon

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tphuang said:
yeah, but SCMP is trash on stuff like this and saying that you are on board with sanctions can mean a lot of things.
We don't have details of what is sanctioned and frankly SCMP has even less clue. And they are as bad as Bloomberg in sensationalizing things. At end of the day, EU doesn't get to decide anything. The individual countries do. Implementation will take some time because Dutch wants to get cooperation from Germans that they will not supply Chinese chipmakers. That will take sometime. And the Dutch are not in a hurry to push that along.



Anyways, I made a table of what I think China's demand for different types of CPU is based on the domestic market and some exports. I also made some guesstimates on how many wafers will be required to fully fulfill those demands.

This does not include GPUs. My conclusion is that if SMIC gets to 50k wpm of production at SMSC by sometimes in 2024. I don't think too unreasonable estimate, since hvpc thinks that SN1 fully ramped at 35k by end of last year and have enough ASML scanners but are just lacking other tools. I'm guessing 18 months is enough time for them to find some advanced tools to another 15k wpm of advanced node production.

If 50% of that capacity is used for CPUs and the remaining for smaller chips, GPUs, IoT SoCs and others, then that's still 300k wafer a year. It's enough to cover some phones, most of the desktop market (which are basically workplace desktops that are part of the 50million machine domestic replacement program), 1/3 to 1/2 of server CPUs and laptop. On top of this, more of the server CPUs are likely designed by Chinese chipmakers and produced by TSMC & Samsung. This is terrible news for Intel & AMD. But it becomes bad for even TSMC & Qualcomm. If they go beyond that, then even they can fill more of the tablet, laptop & smartphone market, it would be devastating for TSMC & Qualcomm & Nvidia.
View attachment 106055
My guess is that 2022 was the start of decline of Intel & AMD in Chinese market. Things will get worse in 2023 and spread to TSMC/Qualcomm/Nvidia by 2024. 2025 is when Huawei whisper expect 7nm 5G chips to be on Huawei phones, so I think that's a pretty good estimate of when Chinese CPUs will make dent in the smartphone market.
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I am surprised that the desktop market is so small but I guess in China the consumer electronics market is more heavily tilted towards mobile and laptop while desktop is more enterprise/government focused so not as much demand. If the local digital ecosystem is reoriented to be optimized around those chips then really its a dead road for x86, ARM, etc unless there are business considerations for working with them due to working with foreign markets, customers, etc. Not that this has any strategic bearing of course, but if Chinese chip designs do end up having to fork away from x86 or ARM gamers will end taking a hit unless those games are optimized (RIP genshin impact players on ps4).
 
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mst

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Dutch PM Rutte: may not disclose result of U.S. chip export control talks​

"Those talks have been going on for a long time and we're not saying anything about it," Rutte said. "It's really in doubt that if something comes out of them, that it will be very visible. We'll have to see."
Rutte said on Friday the talks were ongoing with "many countries" and that they are aimed at maintaining technological leadership, and preventing "the best technology be used in defence systems where you don't want it."
"But also how do you ensure at the same time that you don't damage supply lines," he said.

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