Chinese semiconductor industry

So that is the philosophical question.

Is those Bloomberg reports of a ban a real tech story or a propaganda story?

Right now, no one knows.

The only thing we can say with certainty, is that they kicked the can down the road.

Like, big deal, you know what I mean.

They should just go ban Huawei again.

Well, if this IC bans are going the way of Huawei bans, we know what the end of this story will be.

tphuang said:

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Korean IC industry now have 900 billion RMB of semiconductor stored up and not delivered. China represents Korean IC industries's main export market, 60% in fact. So, it's a huge problem for Korea that China is needing to import less chips.

I do wonder about some of these optimistic statements about semi industry turning around the inventory backlog reducing by second half of 2023. Is the economy getting any better? What is that based on? Sure, there is non stop demand in China for domestic tools and chips due to sanction fears. But for companies that exported into China, they already have a huge backlog that need to be cleared up and the market size is shrinking by the day for them. Where else is this market opening up for them?
And for all of them that have been using China sales to reinvest into R&D and new projects, where is that funding going to come from now?

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900B RMB semiconductor is huge money, especially for SK .. have you got a link about that?

tphuang said:

I mean this is kind of what we expected. No real announcement because Dutch want other european countries to sign on also. Going to take months to implement which makes sense because they just want to get the Americans off their back and they now need to go through their legal process in Europe.

We will have to see which immersion model gets banned but my guess is anything more advanced than 1980i.

And pretty sure this will not affect after service support.

As for Japan, I think they will retaliate against them. This will be an excuse for them to hurt Japanese industries. Remember this isn't about revenge. This is about helping Chinese industries.

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My guess is from 2050i up ... so 2000i is fine

ZeEa5KPul said:

We need to take a step back and first establish that this is happening anywhere outside Bloomberg's private reality. Unless someone else with some credibility reports it like - loathe as I am to admit it - The Wall Street Journal, this is fake news.

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Bloomberg is unreliable when they report on the progress of talks or anything like that. However when they say, deal is done, I would think that should be ok.
After all, Western media have some very specific and well known ways of misleading/lying to the world, which is usually not by making definite statements like that (e.g Deal is done)

PeoplesPoster said:

Perhaps, but punishing Japan or any other US vassal in the end only helps accomplish the US goal of decoupling from China. The US pushes it's vassals to sanction China, China then turns around the sanctions the vassal, in the end it just makes it that much easier for them to shut down business with China. Smarter play may be to do targeted sanctions against Japanese companies that work with US defense or space agencies etc, claims its for national security.

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In your argument, any countries can sanction China without consequences. If other countries see that they can get away without retaliation because China is reluctant to do anything, what would they do after that. In the end of the day, there would be more restrictions and more countries would follow the US footsteps.

Targeting Japanese companies in defense and space agencies are meaningless. It won't hurt Japan. Japan might not even care. China should and must target Japan in a way that would hurt Japan and make it felt the pain but at the same time would do the least amount of the damage to China.

Being Vassals mean these countries don't have independent foreign policies. That means China doesn't need to concern and care about these countries because it is the US that makes the decisions for them not the other around.

If Japan wanted to decouple from China, it is perfectly fine. Japan's economy is in a very bad shape at the moment. A real decoupling would hurt Japan more than it would ever hurt China. Let Japan be the example for messing with China. Set Japan as an example to deter other countries from following the Japan footsteps. Appeasement has no place in a zero sum game. Japan makes its choice and should deal with the consequences.

Just a few weeks ago, both Japan and SK were the first countries to humiliate China by placing restrictions on Chinese tourists when most other countries didn't. I just don't understand why some people are still delusional enough to think China should court Japan, what for. I just think it is this kind of Confucius appeasement policies that bred weak and inferiority complex among the Chinese population that prevent China from realizing its full potential.

ZeEa5KPul said:

We need to take a step back and first establish that this is happening anywhere outside Bloomberg's private reality. Unless someone else with some credibility reports it like - loathe as I am to admit it - The Wall Street Journal, this is fake news.

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Something is happening, we just do not know what.

What is certain, is that the United States want the Netherlands and Japan to enact similar bans on IC that are uniform.

The United States have been trying to persuade Netherlands and Japan for over a year now to no result.

Now, the news (if we can call it that) maybe something has changed.

Logically, we could think of it this way.

1. Before, the Netherlands and Japan, refused to negotiate with the United States over bans on IC pertaining to China.

2. Now, the Netherlands and Japan, may be open to negotiate with the United States over bans on IC pertaining to China.

But, I do not think point 2 is important, logically speaking.

Point 2 needs the Netherlands and Japan, to negotiate with the United States in good faith, over bans on IC pertaining to China.

Will the Netherlands and Japan negotiate in good faith is the question of point 2. But the answer to that, seems to be point 1.

And the dynamics of point 1 has been existing well over a year.

Overbom said:

Bloomberg is unreliable when they report on the progress of talks or anything like that. However when they say, deal is done, I would think that should be ok.
After all, Western media have some very specific and well known ways of misleading/lying to the world, which is usually not by making definite statements like that (e.g Deal is done)

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They could be exaggerating the extent to anything that may have been discussed. They could not even provide a name to the negotiators.

Usually we need a name to know if something is real.

PeoplesPoster said:

Perhaps, but punishing Japan or any other US vassal in the end only helps accomplish the US goal of decoupling from China. The US pushes it's vassals to sanction China, China then turns around the sanctions the vassal, in the end it just makes it that much easier for them to shut down business with China. Smarter play may be to do targeted sanctions against Japanese companies that work with US defense or space agencies etc, claims its for national security.

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Japan is not being forced into this. It initiates and willingly works together with the US on many of these initiatives against China. It is in Japan's own self interest keep China down. Having a powerful China right next door is so good for Japan?

Petrolicious88 said:

Japan is not being forced into this. It initiates and willingly works together with the US on many of these initiatives against China. It is in Japan's own self interest keep China down. Having a powerful China right next door is so good for Japan?

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Forget it, take that out your brain. The US is the one pulling the strings here, they don't said in public but the mantra is probably "do it yourself expect that we like it or we will force you to do it" "and it will be more painful for both of us if we force you to do it".
If Japan was on board on this they would accepted months ago, in fact they will do it on their own months or years ago, like the did with the South Koreans. Japanese politicians are under the incredible pressure from their own industrial groups not to follow the US on this because it could result on the loss of their market share in China by Chinese companies. Lets see Nikon. If they can't successfully enter the Chinese market they would be better off closing their money losing lithography division. You think Japanese politicians don't know this? that they are fools? Nikon is probably counting on China to save them from irrelevancy, that is probably only a few years in the future. A huge Chinese market dominated by China own lithography companies: Dry, immersion, EUV, nanoimprint. and the global market dominated by ASML. Will be doomsday for Nikon, unable to enter the Chinese market and unable to compete with ASML. Is over.

The once proud lithography company that dominated the semiconductor industry, is dying in a slow and painful way. The Japanese know it. They are not fools. The cure will be that after the Dutch ban immersion in China they take over with their own system, fast, before SMEE take that market share. but the Dutch rather disobey their masters in DC than allowing Nikon to take market share.