Chinese semiconductor industry

paiemon said:

I am surprised that the desktop market is so small but I guess in China the consumer electronics market is more heavily tilted towards mobile and laptop while desktop is more enterprise/government focused so not as much demand. If the local digital ecosystem is reoriented to be optimized around those chips then really its a dead road for x86, ARM, etc unless there are business considerations for working with them due to working with foreign markets, customers, etc. Not that this has any strategic bearing of course, but if Chinese chip designs do end up having to fork away from x86 or ARM gamers will end taking a hit unless those games are optimized (RIP genshin impact players on ps4).

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Actually, I took the worldwide market (60 million desktop & 280 million laptop I think) divided by 4 and added a little more since Lenovo and others do export quite a bit. Just looking in my life, basically nobody buys desktop for personal use anymore. That's why Chinese gov't's order to replace desktops at gov't, SOEs, education, healthcare and basically all major industries will eventually represent a huge portion of the desktop market. Workplace computer also don't have requirement for gaming & just need to have those basic work place applications, so lack of ecosystem and being a little slower doesn't really matter that much. After all, people at work often just use a thin client to access cloud computing resources.

If they can fully replace non-personal desktops with domestic computers, then that's a huge win for domestic chipmakers and software developers. Once you get to that place, laptops using fully domestic chips and software will also be a lot more competitive, since everyone is building ecosystems for domestic hardware. That means huge wins for Hygon, Loongson, Phytium, Huawei & especially Moore Threads.

tphuang said:

I warn that we are getting more off track with articles that are high on hyperbole and low on facts. I'm going to start deleting articles that don't offer anything new and self pity posts after that if they continue to get posted.

As Paul said

https://twitter.com/i/web/status/1619110421218340867

Let's wait for more facts to come out since this is going to slowly get unveiled.

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It is not unreasonable to now expect an ever tighter tech embargo, regardless of what proclamations come from countries that are part of the US Alliance.

Weaasel said:

It is not unreasonable to now expect an ever tighter tech embargo, regardless of what proclamations come from countries that are part of the US Alliance.

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I think it is unreasonable, because it is a practical question of what is there left to ban?

It's no joke, but it is still really funny.

That probably was the primary reason the US Congress banned Huawei 10x to 20x times, because they ran out of Huawei things to ban, so re-banned Huawei again and again.

In this particular case, of IC equipment, they do not want the Chinese to fab a 7nm chip. So they want those machines and tools not sold to the Chinese.

The weird thing there, is that the Chinese already fab a 7nm chip, over a year ago. So any new ban can only influence expansion, and not current capabilities or know-how gained. It may pose a problem servicing machines, but that is still an open question.

Bans on China regarding 14nm chips and up seem to be redundant and pointless at this point in the game. In short, there is not much left to ban in IC, as all of it is under some sort of US ban already.


As for future bans from the US to tighten the tech embargo, that is unrealistic.

There is not much more left to ban, if they can find anything else to ban.

Space? There is a law in the US already prevent Sino-US space engagement.

Arms? The EU arms embargo is still on the books, while during that time, China built the world's biggest navy and 4th gen figthers and even 5th gen fighters.

Telecom? Huawei banned again.

IC? Looks like they banned almost everything that China is not domestically capable of doing themselves.

I think it is very difficult to enforce more bans because everything has been banned already.

LOL! Tech decoupling is not a future thing, is it a current thing.

Maybe that is why they want to go after TikTok, they want to ban that too. But why? Cat videos? Bust a move?

tphuang said:

View attachment 106032
btw this is now going around Chinese social media and causing people to get alarmed which is also trigger articles like this

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Based on what can decipher from what people have been saying, the troubles at YMTC are real and they are suffering from not just losing access support for the American tools they bought but also losing orders like the apple one. When you ramp up production with the expectation of certain order, it stinks when the orders are not there. If we factor in the current market downturn in memory chip prices, YMTC is definitely have a hard time here.

There is definitely rumors of people leaving YMTC due to the tough circumstances. My sense is that the second fab is definitely not starting production anytime soon. But they do need to find customers to pay for first fab.

The other sentence here is too dramatic. The Chinese gov't will not let YMTC go bankrupt.

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I don't think YMTC ever relied on export. Apple was preparing to use YMTC products，but that plan never materialize. So it has no impact on YMTC existing sells. It's not like YMTC has been rely on Apple for years and suddenly lost a big client.

I don't think market is a problem for YMTC，remember China still imports lots of NAND chips，so the domestic market has more than enough room for YMTC. The only obstacle YMTC facing is from production side

horse said:

I think it is unreasonable, because it is a practical question of what is there left to ban?

It's no joke, but it is still really funny.

That probably was the primary reason the US Congress banned Huawei 10x to 20x times, because they ran out of Huawei things to ban, so re-banned Huawei again and again.

In this particular case, of IC equipment, they do not want the Chinese to fab a 7nm chip. So they want those machines and tools not sold to the Chinese.

The weird thing there, is that the Chinese already fab a 7nm chip, over a year ago. So any new ban can only influence expansion, and not current capabilities or know-how gained. It may pose a problem servicing machines, but that is still an open question.

Bans on China regarding 14nm chips and up seem to be redundant and pointless at this point in the game. In short, there is not much left to ban in IC, as all of it is under some sort of US ban already.


As for future bans from the US to tighten the tech embargo, that is unrealistic.

There is not much more left to ban, if they can find anything else to ban.

Space? There is a law in the US already prevent Sino-US space engagement.

Arms? The EU arms embargo is still on the books, while during that time, China built the world's biggest navy and 4th gen figthers and even 5th gen fighters.

Telecom? Huawei banned again.

IC? Looks like they banned almost everything that China is not domestically capable of doing themselves.

I think it is very difficult to enforce more bans because everything has been banned already.

LOL! Tech decoupling is not a future thing, is it a current thing.

Maybe that is why they want to go after TikTok, they want to ban that too. But why? Cat videos? Bust a move?

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And Yellen expect Xi to help the US by buying more US Treasury notes....lol China have ways of retaliating, when it happen the suffering will be immense and long lasting to the Collective West as a whole, cause IF the US suffer, they will suffer more especially Japan and EU.

mst said:

Dutch PM Rutte: may not disclose result of U.S. chip export control talks​

"Those talks have been going on for a long time and we're not saying anything about it," Rutte said. "It's really in doubt that if something comes out of them, that it will be very visible. We'll have to see."
Rutte said on Friday the talks were ongoing with "many countries" and that they are aimed at maintaining technological leadership, and preventing "the best technology be used in defence systems where you don't want it."
"But also how do you ensure at the same time that you don't damage supply lines," he said.

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I guess we will never get any clear answer from the Dutch. Just keep an eye on new biddings，see if there are new ASML machines being purchased

Not surprising that the Dutch caved to US coercion, but it's disappointing that it took less than a month for the Dutch trade minister to eat his defiant words.

Regardless, I don't see how restricting exports of rare earth materials will be anything but a short term win, but then again I don't know the extent of China's dominance in that market.

In my opinion, the best thing to do would be to continue encouraging local semiconductor companies to work with each other and make it harder for hostile nations to sell their semiconductors machines, equipment and chips to the Chinese market i.e. raise import tariffs, renegotiate joint ventures, etc.

horse said:

Something is happening, we just do not know what.

What is certain, is that the United States want the Netherlands and Japan to enact similar bans on IC that are uniform.

The United States have been trying to persuade Netherlands and Japan for over a year now to no result.

Now, the news (if we can call it that) maybe something has changed.

Logically, we could think of it this way.

1. Before, the Netherlands and Japan, refused to negotiate with the United States over bans on IC pertaining to China.

2. Now, the Netherlands and Japan, may be open to negotiate with the United States over bans on IC pertaining to China.

But, I do not think point 2 is important, logically speaking.

Point 2 needs the Netherlands and Japan, to negotiate with the United States in good faith, over bans on IC pertaining to China.

Will the Netherlands and Japan negotiate in good faith is the question of point 2. But the answer to that, seems to be point 1.

And the dynamics of point 1 has been existing well over a year.

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And the end result will be the same" CHINA WILL eventually be SELF SUFFICIENT"





18 hours ago — Sanctions move China to replace chips supply chain. ASML CEO says what needs to be said about US pressure on the lithography front.

Bloomberg is a known bad faith actor at this point. Their new article has a lot of unnamed resources again. The Dutch PM's words indicate the opposite of what they say. There is no deal yet.

ansy1968 said:

And the end result will be the same" CHINA WILL eventually be SELF SUFFICIENT"

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Yup, I hear you brother.

You know, still this this whole recent story about the Netherlands and Japan joining in on these new United States ban on IC for China, that is all bullshit.

It is only interesting from a political fight type of angle, but otherwise, it is not interesting at all. It is all bullshit.

First of all, I do not believe the Netherlands and Japan agreed to this ban, so I believe that is false.

However, that is not even important.

It is the timeline of how things are done. It is apparent to me that most people who write these stories and the politicians who comment on such matters, never been inside a factory in their whole life. Although I never been inside a fab, a factory still operates in a predictable manner.

It is all about production, keeping their factory systems running, sales, and maintenance of equipment. There is more, but that roughly is the main concern of the factory or fab, production.

New equipment, you buy it when the time comes. That is standard practice. You don't buy it, when you don't need it.

However, due to the extraordinary circumstances due to the trade war and tech war, we were hearing news that the Chinese were stockpiling the actual tools to make these chips two years ago.

They were preparing for war, to borrow a figure of speech.

If these new bans are real, and I don't believe they are, but suppose they are, then what difference will it make?

You buy this machine, set it up inside factory, integrate it with everything else, then it comes to production.

So an order for an ASML machine, when they pickup that phone or make that fax or whatever they do now to issue the purchase order, it will conceivable that it be 1 to 2 years after that purchase order before the factory is using that ASML machine in production.

So if that ASML machine is banned, that means it will be not available to the factory in 1 to 2 years time. At which time, it could obsolete.

Another thing to keep in mind about factory equipment, is that you buy it, use it, then ditch it. Best to use that factory equipment for a few years before a new machine.

Therefore, that is essentially the real story here, and that is why this ban is bullshit, regardless if this ban is true or false.

This ban affects future purchases of ASML machines (provided if it is true), and this ban would thereby affect future production.

This ban will not affect current production. This ban does not appear to affect current expansion too, because those machines already in possession of the fab or on delivery.

Of course, a few years from now, 2 or 3, the time comes to buy a new machine. If ASML is not available, then maintain the old ones, keep them up and running. See what domestic players have to sell in 2 or 3 years.

Since production is increasing in Chinese chip output, we know that by decreasing chip imports into China (confirmation eh), and they are building more fabs in China (meaning expansion, cap-ex,) and you don't build a fab if you don't have the equipment, well, this ban affects the future, and NOT the present.

But when the future comes, there are options available for China, maintain the current old machines or see what SMEE has in stock.

Still, the same goal remains, which is lower nodes powered by the zap your ass EVU SSMB caontraption!

All in all, though this issue is important, it is tough to see how this can materially affect the Chinese chip industry at the current moment, and we have to see the future holds in terms of the potential of the IC industry in China.

This ban does not affect the future of the Chinese IC industry, because no one was willing to help out with the EUV to begin with, so this ban, if true, only affects a very specific section of the IC industry in China.

In short, it does not affect the EUV projects because that already is banned. It does not affect the very mature nodes, because China may not need foreigners for that production. It could affect that 14nm, but that is future production and not current production. Looks like decoupling in IC is almost complete.

Blah blah blah.

I think the Americans making this shit up are really clueless. LOL.