The way I see it, China's semiconductor industry is surviving. But it's not enough. SMIC is meant to be China's answer to TSMC, are they really gonna to be happy with mass production of 28nm/14nm chips and extremely limited production of 7nm, even if it's all done with entirely domestic equipment.? And it seems that America purposely doesn't target the low end chips for this reason, they said it themselves, "I don't care about the chips that they use in the airbags of cars". The sanctions are meant to slow down the high end chip development and it has succeeded.
By the time SMIC can get access to EUV in 2025-2030, who knows what node size TSMC and Intel are up to, or if they're even planning to shift to an entirely new architecture and/or material other than silicon to get them below or faster than 1nm. And keep in mind that even by some miracle that the EUV is in mass production by 2025 and SMIC gets like a dozen of them, it could take 1-2 years for them to figure out how to get mass production of sub 5nm chips, Intel has EUV for years and hasn't figured it out 5nm. And this is important years, A.I is developing so fast, a reduction in computing power now could meant a massive lack of progress in A.I development compared to America.
I hope that China's semiconductor industry isn't so focused on surviving and producing "low end chips" that they miss whatever new revolution that will bring us faster computing on a sub 1nm node and have to catch up all over again.
Hell it seems like foresight is a major issue with the semiconductor industry. Huawei 2018 and the EUV ban should have been a wake up call for the entire industry but most firms still went ahead with American chips and equipment. Even the massive subsidies and loans that the government gave the industry went into Fabs and design firms instead of the glaring weakness of semiconductor equipment sector. The EDA and most recent equipment ban seemed like a massive shock to the industry but really shouldn't have been, seeing how bad the relationship between Washington and Beijing is.
SMEE and other semiconductor equipment should have been treated like a wartime scenario of total national importance since the 2018 bans, but instead it's seems like it's only happening now, after the latest rounds of sanctions. I really have no idea what's going on in the heads of top level industry leaders to not expect this level of attack, the sanctions of Russia in early 2022 were an early warning of how much pressure America and her allies can apply if need be, even if it hurts them badly.
And America could do a lot more if they wanted to, even if it means hurting themselves. I hope that they have a plan if America goes for another round of sanctions or goes full scorched earth and puts the entire semiconductor industry on the same level of sanctions as Russia faces, aka, total cessation of all sales of material and equipment to China and a total ban on semiconductors from China.
Hi and welcome to the forum, while you opinion are commendable, I advise you to look at what Liang Mong Song had stated on his resignation letter to the SMIC board. He said that SMIC's 7nm node has already completed full development, and is preparing mass production April 2021. More surprisingly, the designs and most of the development for 5nm and 3nm nodes have already been mostly completed.
The following is the full text of Liang Mengsong's resignation:
Letter to the Board of Directors
Hello, chairman and directors!
I know that we will make a very important personnel appointment decision at this meeting today.
Currently,
is facing various pressures from the United States, leading to serious threats to the development of advanced technology. I believe that today's personnel proposal will inevitably affect the company's prospects.
It has been more than three years since I was appointed as the co-CEO by the board of directors in November 2017. In these more than 1,000 days, I almost never took a vacation. Even in June 2019, when I was experiencing life At the most dangerous moment, I never gave up, and I never let you down.
During this period, I tried my best to complete five generations of technology development from 28nm to 7nm. This is a task that an average company takes more than ten years to accomplish. And these results are obtained by more than 2,000 engineers led by me, working hard day and night. Of course, the trust and support of the chairman and the directors in the past is also a key element of success.
I originally came to mainland China not to seek high-ranking officials, but simply to contribute to the mainland's high-end integrated circuits. At present, 28nm, 14nm, 12nm, and n+1 technologies have all entered mass production, and
the development of 7nm technology has also been completed. Risk mass production will be available in April next year.
The 8 most critical and most difficult technologies of 5nm and 3nm have also been carried out in an orderly manner. Only when the EUV lithography machine arrives, we can enter the full development stage.
It seems that my short-term goal seems to have exceeded expectations and was successfully achieved.
I received a call from the chairman of the board on December 9th, last Wednesday morning: Mr. Jiang is about to become the vice chairman of the company. I was very surprised and puzzled about this, because I didn't know anything about it beforehand. I deeply feel that I am no longer respected and distrusted. I think you should no longer need me here to continue to work hard for the company's prospects. I can rest for a while.
After the company’s board of directors and shareholders’ meeting have approved Mr. Jiang’s nomination, I will formally submit my resignation. But the company should give a comprehensive and fair evaluation of my contribution over the past three years, and I should have the right to accept and appeal.
I solemnly tell you that I do not have the slightest intention to influence your next vote on this personnel appointment, but I think I should let everyone know my true feelings.
My statement hopes that Ms. Guo Guangli, secretary of the board of directors, can be included in the official meeting minutes of this interim board of directors.
Thank you all.
As the letter stated SMIC had mapped out the development of 5nm and 3nm Chips, so they needed an EUVL to verify their progress, BUT there are other tools available like the SSRF in Shanghai and I'm certain that they are testing the mask and photoresist so when a viable Chinese EUVL come on line in late 2024 and early 2025 both chips are production ready. I also speculate by 2025 both China and the US are in a same boat regarding 5nm chips (SMIC 5NM N+3 DUVL) unless TSMC relent and produce their 3nm chips in Arizona.
