Chinese semiconductor industry

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ansy1968

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With much higher costs in TSMC US fabs, a lot more competition from Chinese fabs, and worldwide recession over the next couple of years, TSMC will have a challenge recouping their investments. This may lead to their bankruptcy. At that time, it may be sold to US investors. But China should step in by voiding any takeover by US entities.
Bro TSMC think that this downturn are transitory. ;) I'm not an industry insider so maybe they are right BUT as a consumer why should I pay an overprice American Brand when I can buy a cheaper Chinese one. This week my wife gifted me a Huawei Matebook 14 notebook laptop (I'm using it today typing this post:) ) costing $778 compare to the cheapest Apple laptop at $1,100, so whose the daddy now...lol
 

ansy1968

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Just a final question. Japan has developed EUV light source and they have long time experience in DUV litho systems? Why haven't they produced a EUV litho machine then if they just need to assemble what they can already produce?
From my understanding bro, The American want to exclude the Japanese, DARPA funded the project thru SEMATECH Consortium ( The original members of SEMATECH were IBM, Intel Corporation, Motorola, Texas Instruments, National Semiconductor, Advanced Micro Devices, Lucent Technologies, Compaq Computer Corp., Hewlett-Packard Technology, Conexant Systems, NCR Microelectronics Corp., Harris Semiconductor, LSI Logic Corp., and Micron Technology, ASML and TSMC) to challenge the dominance of the Japanese during the 80's and 90's so yes the American had the final say to whom it can be sold and ASML will have to abide whether they like it or not cause from the American point of view, we funded it we owned it.
 
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tphuang

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A nice year end summary of what LoongSon has done this year. I wish Hygon and Phytium have made similar progress, but looks like they didn't for some reason.

1) 2K1000LA was taped out for industrial control usage

2) 7A2000 GPU

3) Announcement of 2K0500 for various low energy consumption applications that are industrial related.

4) 16 core 3C5000 announced and 32 core 3D5000 has completed verification for large data center and cloud data center.

5) 1C102 and 1C103 taped out for IoT, smart home and MCU

6) 2K2000 taped out, for SoC platform

7) 2K1500 taped out for industrial control

It does seem interesting that since Loongson is the only one doing LoongArch development, it ends up not only developing CPUs, but also IoT chips, MCUs, display chips and GPUs. Unfortunately since it's working on so many things, nothing particularly stands out. I wonder if they can just allow other companies to also do LoongArch chip development and focus on desktop/server CPUs. Otherwise, it's hard for them to compete against Phytium and Hygon.
 

tphuang

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Important note here for everything. Just as we suspected, nothing has impacted CPU delivery for Phytium. It is unaffected by any sanctions.

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6 E2000 industry development boards have been developed for different industrial usage of E2000 CPU.
 

tphuang

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Interesting and detailed article on this key technology for lithography machine.

Few takeaways:

1. US monopoly of Keysight (formerly Agilent) and Zygo has been broken.

2. Harbin Institute of Technology built a total of 10 interferometers, for SMEE and some other institutions

3. Confirmation that exists at least one SMEE prototype for 28nm ("lithography machine prototypes at multiple process nodes from 350 nm to 28 nm")

4. Confirmation that SMEE machine is fully localized. Interferometer from Zygo was considered a critical sub-part of the machine, but now it seems they can do without. We already now RSLaser replaced Gigaphoton as light source.

5. They are now working on the interferometer for next-generation EUV lithography machines
Great summary there. I think all this noise from the past few months indicates that the development of SMEE's Arf scanner is coming to a close and they are getting ready for mass production. Given SMEE has recently been put on entity list, it's probably a good mention that they are fully localized.

Interesting that the Laser Interferometer mentioned here has been mentioned by havok as something they use that's sufficient for a scanner with 1950i performance, but they need something better (grating interferometer) for 2nd gen DUVi scanner. So, they are still probably 2 years away from having a domestic option that's as good as NXT2000i/2050i. Hence the need for SMIC to accelerate its purchase of ASML scanners right now.

All these recent unveils point to 2 things:
1) They are getting closer to building a viable prototype for EUV
2) They are releasing the news to put pressure on Dutch gov't and ASML to not take their monopoly position for granted and buckle under US sanction pressures.

According to havok,the domestic production line at ICRD is only starting volume production of 55nm,28nm is still long way to go

View attachment 104141
Yes, Given the recent news about Arf dry 光刻胶 and 涂胶显影机 and lack of comment about immersion for that (that @tokenanalyst and @PopularScience posted), they are just in the process of testing domestic production line for 55nm. Photoresist for Arfi still needs some time.

I'm expecting the Arf immersion scanner to be testing with SMIC's Beijing de-americanized line. There was that story of SMIC Beijing having 40nm de-americanized line and then getting to 28nm. Given the likelihood of further sanctions, I think they will have production line testing SMEE scanner for 40 nm production and then 28nm production later.

There is this comment
现在国产DUVi光刻机到底啥进展啊?在测试了吗?
12-29
· IP 属地陕西
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接近交付,只是交付客户不是量产。

For @tokenanalyst
不光华卓,启尔,国望等现在都是靠国家补助研发的,没有补助靠企业自身的盈利哪有钱搞这种研发
仔细看了一下,那个招股书多半说的是财务上的问题,02专项是专款专用,和公司其他项目不掺合
In case you are wondering. Everyone is getting state subsidies to do these developments. 02 project related funding/news are not reported for good reason.

So if I was to summarize this. The new SSA/B/C-800 is dual stage and getting plenty of gov't funding. I think it will replace SSA/B/C-600 line and will actually be commercially competitive. the Arf dry version seems to be more capable and able to handle 55nm production (big improvement over SSA-600 which can only do 90 to 65 nm??). They have now developed full domestic process for up to 55nm that's been tested in production environment at ICRD. Krf and iLine products are ironically not finished development yet due to the greater urgency for Arf production line. Which means, they will likely start mass production of Arf dry scanner soon. Sounds correct??

DUVi has been delivered (probably SMEE and maybe YMTC) since they can use non-Chinese tools for their regular process. They have not started mass production with that. Likely, they are still working on their process. Mass production of DUVi is unlikely to start until the customers are comfortable with the machines. That is unlikely to happen until June at least. @PopularScience where did you see the comment about June for mass production of immersion scanners?
Last year, news came out that SMIC have received the 11 AMSL DUVs for $1.2B. Each one would cost $100M, that indicates its the most advanced version NXT2050, capable of 7nm, but hvpc indicares that ASML wouldn't deliver so many advanced ones in such short time. So , that leads to so what conflcted views. Maybe it could something for your research.
hmm, it was not 11 ASML DUVi for $1.2 billion. They just said they spent that much money without specifying which scanners they bought. It was likely that they bought a few NXT2050i on that order and a lot more of the other scanners. I think they have enough (or will have enough) ASML machines to complete their SN1/SN2 expansion and for some of their Beijing & Lingang lines also.
 

tokenanalyst

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Not only Huazhuo, Qier, Guowang, etc. are now relying on state subsidies for research and development. If there is no subsidy, the company’s own profits will not have the money to do this kind of research and development.
Well U-Precision has other sales, laser annealing equipment, they are developing hybrid bonding equipment for advanced packaging applications and they seem to have good sales in other types of wafer stages for other applications and vibration isolation systems.
Qier electromechanical, does ultrapure water, that is needed in a lot of the stages of the semiconductor manufacturing process. They may have good sales there.
Nata needs no introduction apart for photoresist, they sell a bunch of ultrapure chemicals.
Rslaser and Guowang optical are part of E-Town a big conglomerate and the owners of various semiconductor companies.
There are other companies that developing parts for this project have their own side businesses.
But in general for this kind of moonshot project they need state support no only with subsides but also using China domestic research institutions to cut developing time and costs with the benefit for those institutions coming in the form of patent fees. A lot of support is also needed from Chinese fabs, this kind of SME cannot be develop in a vacuum, needs to be codeveloped with the fabs in mind for debugging and feedback.
 

tphuang

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under comment section of havok 12-08 post
Thanks. Things make a lot of sense after I read through that. Looks like the DUVi that passed certification a year ago was using 4Khz laser, so was not usable by for 28nm node. The 6Khz laser was developed in 2021, so was only integrated and certified with SSA800 this year, which is sufficient for 28nm node. And only when they develop the new inference equipment, can they do the 2nd gen DUVi equipment for 14/7 nm node. It seems he is also uncertain about when mass production will start for this DUVi scanner. Q3 seems like an optimistic case. This would really depend on when customer finishes integration to their production process. My guess is that this will take them until at least Q4 to figure out.

If ICRD is already starting their 55nm production process with SSA800 dry version, then SMEE should be able to get the go ahead for start mass production soon and that will be enough for all the power chip and industrial chip production they need. Good comment to hear about increased production and new production line.
 

european_guy

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I'm expecting the Arf immersion scanner to be testing with SMIC's Beijing de-americanized line.

This approach can help us to sort out this stuff from a different point of view.

There is a lot of discussion about when SMEE 28nm will be ready, but let's look at it from the opposite side!

There are not a lot of 28nm fabs going online in the next 2 years in China, so maybe is easier and more practical to list when the new 28nm lines will be (1) built and (2) put in volume production. Then try to guess for each line if a SMEE machine will be part of the setup.

From there we can infer a much more realistic and milestone bounded plan of SMEE machines introduction.

IOW it is not useful to know if SMEE machine is ready tomorrow, because first fab to use it will not come online tomorrow anyhow.
 
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