More likely just general market stuff. ASML 1 Week/Month chart is almost identical to the Nasdaq, Dow Jones, and the S&P. If it was more of a high single digit or double digit drop within a day then it would be pointing to something else.
Chinese semiconductor industry
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More likely just general market stuff. ASML 1 Week/Month chart is almost identical to the Nasdaq, Dow Jones, and the S&P. If it was more of a high single digit or double digit drop within a day then it would be pointing to something else.
A quick comment on that sentence in the article.
The sentence said it was a $xxx business, and not $xxx company. If it was the latter, then obviously it is referring to what it is worth. If it was the former, then it could be both, which we should assume they mean revenue. Because if they mean what it is worth, then just use the correct word.
But there is curious point. Why the article even bother bringing it up? Probably just out of laziness.
Tech valuations in the stock market is a little crazy. ASML could be worth 50% more or 50% less in 6 months, and probably their sales to the same cartel will not be too different.
So I feel, that if the article wanted to give us an idea of what ASML business is like for the reader, better to state revenue than a stock price.
Lastly, the article was about Huawei and their potential EUV patent. Huawei revenue is 5x times more than ASML. Does that mean Huawei is a trillion dollar company? Who knows. Does it matter? Probably not.
Huawei is a $100 billion USD company in sales. Read 50 articles on Huawei from Western media, and maybe that is mentioned once or twice.
That is why it never occurred to me why they would state the value of ASML as a company, in a Huawei article. Two years of Huawei revenue is already the current value of one ASML. Makes ASML look small, like really small fish.
That's the thing, eh?
If we do not read Western media, we do not even know there is a tech war, lol.
I think I want to indulge, and say two things, as to why this tech war seems like a dud. The Americans made at least 2 or 3 or more strategic errors.
1. They had no clue about the internal Chinese IC industries.
2. They made a fundamental mistake about their understanding of value chains, in how the economics of that work.
The first point, is self-explanatory, with Sun Tzu teaching about knowing the enemy, a 100 battles a 100 wins. Here, is it clear, the Americans always knew nothing about China.
The second point, is more complicated and subtle, and the Americans flunked that test too.
Best way to explain it, is compare ASML to Huawei. Why is the latter 5x times bigger than the former? There could be many explanations, but the general principle is that the company at the end of the value chain, will make more money.
For example, the producer of raw materials from a mine, will not make as much money as the companies who take that raw material and transform it into more amazing products. That is the general principle.
The further we go up the value chain, the more money is being made.
That point, the American government did not understand, and thought it was all equalized, when it is not, or they assumed that they were on the top end of the value chain. Who knows.
Just seems to me, they had a wrong perception of the battlefield.
ASML revenue is about $20 bn let's say. Huawei revenue is $100 bn. So what? It is the next question, what is the R&D budget? LOL! It seems that Huawei R&D budget is like somewhere between $15-$30 bn per year, varies. Geez, Huawei R&D is the size of ASML sales.
The US government, wants ASML to sanction China, and thereby take on the likes of Huawei?
They want the lower end of the value chain to fight the higher end of the value chain. Then in the same breath, say that they have the technological advantage.
This thing is gonna collapse!
They want the lower end of the value chain to fight the higher end of the value chain. Then in the same breath, say that they have the technological advantage.
This thing is gonna collapse!
That seems like a real paradox here.
If anyone asks me, I would say, that the tech to make a chip is more sophisticated that what anything Huawei is doing. Do not know if that is completely true, but the premise is that we all can agree on, that this is very complicated stuff. At the minimum, the tech is equalized.
But in economics, the chip is just a means to an end, so Huawei is on the high end of the value chain, while ASML is on the low end of the value chain.
So who wins?
The answer is the Americans win, because historically everything they did was at the high end of the value chain.
bro to add on your excellent analysis, Huawei is gaining massive revenue from patent licensing fee...lolThat seems like a real paradox here.
If anyone asks me, I would say, that the tech to make a chip is more sophisticated that what anything Huawei is doing. Do not know if that is completely true, but the premise is that we all can agree on, that this is very complicated stuff. At the minimum, the tech is equalized.
But in economics, the chip is just a means to an end, so Huawei is on the high end of the value chain, while ASML is on the low end of the value chain.
So who wins?
The answer is the Americans win, because historically everything they did was at the high end of the value chain.
ASML- why I didn't think of that?....lol ( in the future they might do it, if the Chinese produce a viable EUVL.
)Huawei collected more from patent licensing than it paid out for the second straight year
PUBLISHED: DEC 25, 2022, 4:25 PM
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No matter how hard the U.S. tries to punish Chinese manufacturer Huawei for being a threat to national security, the company keeps fighting back. After losing access to its U.S. supply chain in 2019 and forced to abandon the Google Mobile Services version of Android, Huawei developed HarmonyOS with version 3.0 of the software running the Mate 50 series. The following year, the U.S. forced chip foundries using American technology to produce chips to stop shipping cutting-edge silicon to Huawei.
Huawei's EUV patent could eventually help China manufacture cutting-edge chips
Right now, has permission to use 4G versions of Qualcomm's top Snapdragon chips, and while China's largest foundry is unable to match TSMC and Samsung when it comes to producing the most powerful and energy-efficient chipsets, this could eventually change. Huawei has a patent to develop its own Extreme Ultraviolet (EUV) lithography machine. The EUV is used to etch circuitry patterns on wafers and with billions of transistors inside chips these days, these patterns must be a fraction of the width of a human hair.
Strong demand for the Huawei Mate 50 Pro has the company feeling good these days
The top EUV lithography supplier is a Dutch firm called ASML and it is not allowed to sell these machines to China. Since the invention of the EUV helped take chips to a 7nm process node and lower, Huawei's patent could help China's SMIC eventually compete with TSMC and Samsung Foundry. Right now, SMIC is believed to be able to produce 7nm chips for cryptocurrency mining but is limited to a 14nm process node for smartphone chips.
Even with Huawei handicapped, the company continues to innovate and according to , in 2022 it will generate more patent income from royalties than it pays out to license other firms' patents. This will be the second consecutive year that Huawei has achieved this. Steven Geiszler, the company's U.S. chief intellectual property counsel, said that Huawei signed or renewed 20 patent licensing deals this year.
Some of the companies reaching an agreement with Huawei on these deals were non-U.S. automakers seeking to improve the communications capabilities of their cars. These firms include Mercedes-Benz, Audi, Porsche, and BMW. Geiszler pointed out the advantages to Huawei of making these deals when he said, "By getting a return on our R&D investment, it allows us to re-invest and re-invent."
This is a cycle that Huawei might be able to ride for some time even with the restrictions placed on it by the U.S. As Geiszler points out, the technology included in the patents that Huawei is licensing isn't subject to U.S. restrictions. That's because the technology is publicly disclosed.
Because it's producing fewer devices, Huawei is getting paid on some cross-licensing deals
Huawei also agreed to extend its licensing deal with Nokia which collected revenue from Huawei when the deal was first signed in 2017. While Huawei has generated $1.2 billion from patent licensing over the last three years ending in 2021, it still has a long way to go to catch up with a company like Nokia which took in $1.59 billion in patent licensing revenue in 2021 alone. Huawei's full-year 2022 patent licensing revenue won't be computed until some time next year.
The money generated by patent licensing still doesn't make up for the billions of dollars in sales Huawei lost from the U.S. restrictions. However, the U.S. actions have helped Huawei become more aggressive when licensing its own patents. And with some cross-licensing deals, the company is getting money back from companies on the other side of the deal since Huawei isn't producing as many devices as it used to.
Huawei saw plenty of excitement earlier this year when it released the Mate 50 smartphone line using its homegrown Xmage photography system. One of the new features on the Mate 50 Pro is called the Low Battery Emergency Mode. When the phone is down to 1% battery, it will deliver up to 12 minutes of phone calls or put the phone on standby for up to three hours.
Thanks!
So what is the timeline of SMIC's Beijing and Lingang fabs?
IIRC these fabs should be capped this year and go into production in 2024? Right?
Huawei/PXW fab is even not started, so it is a 2024 fab at best, correct?
ICRD is more a R&D institute like IMEC, so I would leave it out. They have already some SMEE prototype, but their role is to mainly debugging it out.
Can we say, apart from IRCD, SMEE litho machines for 28nm are required to be installed at soonest late 2023, early 2024?
If this is the case, SMEE seems to have some more time for debugging out the prototypes.
Huawei/PXW's fab it hasn't started yet.. but other Huawei fabs are ready... PXW's fab will be finished at the same time as Hisilicon's new R&D center in Shanghai..
China has multiple companies playing in this space, with Huawei apparently trying to leap-frog into EUV.
Litography is arguably the hardest part of the chip ecosystem bottleneck to solve. I don't know why people expected SMEE to perform miracles.
If SMIC had access to ASML's EUV machines, then they would probably be on par with TSMC already or at least very close. China has already proven it could produce top SoC's with Kirin - before was knee-capped.
No country has ever been able to master the entire litography supply-chain for itself before China's contemporary attempts. The amount of foreign suppliers ASML has is staggering and many of them are non-European. China is trying to achieve a herculean task and people should set their expectations accordingly. I'm still a relative optimist in the long-term but some of the hysteria here over SMEE's understandable struggles strike me as a tad overdone.
game over.
China conquered basic DUVi technology. SSA800 serial production will begin this year. soon after more advance variant coming.
EUV core technologies breakthrough has achieved as well.
China is the only country on planet earth to have luxury to build entire semiconductor supply chain by themselves.
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