Chinese semiconductor industry

Amidst this influx of negative propaganda and its amplification by trolls here, this is a good opportunity to recap some facts about the state of the industry

• China has stockpiled foreign DUV lithography tools sufficient down to 7nm (as SMIC proved).
• SMEE SSA800 will enter mass production next year and it is capable of 28nm.
• An improvement/successor to the SSA 800 with a more powerful laser capable of 7nm is, according to the most knowledgeable poster in this thread by far, "around the corner."
• SMEE and Huawei are confirmed to be developing EUV lithography tools (and I suspect they aren't alone) and "something"* is expected to emerge by 2025, barring unforeseen delays. So far, no delays of the sort have been noted.
• ICRD is currently testing a completely indigenous 14nm production line.

In conclusion, if everything is cut off from China today, it has enough tools stockpiled to continue until domestic tools can pick up the slack. At worst, some expansion plans will have to be delayed by a year or two.

* What this "something" is, hopefully @WTAN will clarify. The most pessimistic reading of the post I quoted is that this has to do with the EUVL light source (the CO2 MOPA laser and tin droplet assembly). However, since that is the most difficult part of the machine, progress on this front will solve the most critical bottleneck China is facing.

It's almost certain that China is working on other parts of the device in parallel, and I'd speculate that they're farther along given that they can be tested by ICRD in synchrotrons or other non-commercial EUV light sources.

This may be cope, but for what it's worth...

theorlonator said:

This may be cope, but for what it's worth...

https://twitter.com/i/web/status/1602328855460696064

Click to expand...

It's worth nothing. When Japan and the Netherlands announce bans, report them here. Until then, stop spamming this thread with "will they, won't they" trash.

P1 is taken from a very in-depth slide (May 2022) from Founder Securities on China's domestic semiconductor equipment progress: domestic machines' market penetration rate is estimated to be around 20%-30%. Link to the PPT is being shared above. Other sources (P2 from Yunxiu Capital, 2020, P3 from Tianfeng Securities, 2022) share a less rosy picture but still shows progress being made. P4 from Topsperity Securities () from July 2022 that surveys equipment acquisition of 20 domestic fabs in 2020-2022 shows a very optimistic image - domestic substitution is now in full force and irreversible. The biggest weak link is still DUV/EUVs but like previous posters said, things should start turning around in 2023-2024.

Liande Equipment: Pre-won the bid of 136 million yuan BOE AMOLED production line project​

Liande Equipment announced that recently, the company has become the No.

It is understood that the winning bid equipment is vacuum lamination equipment, polarizer placement machine, heat dissipation film attachment machine, and the winning bid price is 136 million yuan.

Liande Equipment stated that if the company can sign a formal project contract and implement it smoothly, it will have a positive impact on the company's future operating performance and will not affect the independence of the company's operations.

China has filed a WTO lawsuit about semiconductor sanctions:

WarAndPeace said:

Currently China and Russia are up to 90nm level. If they cooperate they can get to 28 nm by about 2030. Russia is already working towards that.

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2022 is already ending and the Russian supply chain for the 90 nm semiconductors is not local - almost all of the equipment is foreign-sourced.

China will have domestic 28 nm next year with SSA800, all other parts are already covered.

WarAndPeace said:

They have plan to localize 90nm without depending on the West by the end of 2022.

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2022 is already ending, so where are at least rumors on all the necessary equipment - litho, etching, ion implantation, etc.? Litho grants for 350 nm machines were aimed for 2024, so how local 90 nm can even happen in 2022? Unless "localize" means buying from China.

Update: I checked and the grant was actually for 350 nm machines. The research for 130 nm one is supposed to finish by mid-2026.

ZeEa5KPul said:

Amidst this influx of negative propaganda and its amplification by trolls here, this is a good opportunity to recap some facts about the state of the industry

Chinese semiconductor industry

AFAIK this one-year reprieve refers to Samsung and TSMC fabs in China that still can buy US tools, but it does not mean Samsung can sell advanced foundry services for Chinese AI customers. Samsung in China has a Dram fab. In the original Korea Economic Daily article is written Samsung will be...

www.sinodefenceforum.com

• China has stockpiled foreign DUV lithography tools sufficient down to 7nm (as SMIC proved).
• SMEE SSA800 will enter mass production next year and it is capable of 28nm.
• An improvement/successor to the SSA 800 with a more powerful laser capable of 7nm is, according to the most knowledgeable poster in this thread by far, "around the corner."
• SMEE and Huawei are confirmed to be developing EUV lithography tools (and I suspect they aren't alone) and "something"* is expected to emerge by 2025, barring unforeseen delays. So far, no delays of the sort have been noted.
• ICRD is currently testing a completely indigenous 14nm production line.

In conclusion, if everything is cut off from China today, it has enough tools stockpiled to continue until domestic tools can pick up the slack. At worst, some expansion plans will have to be delayed by a year or two.

* What this "something" is, hopefully @WTAN will clarify. The most pessimistic reading of the post I quoted is that this has to do with the EUVL light source (the CO2 MOPA laser and tin droplet assembly). However, since that is the most difficult part of the machine, progress on this front will solve the most critical bottleneck China is facing.

It's almost certain that China is working on other parts of the device in parallel, and I'd speculate that they're farther along given that they can be tested by ICRD in synchrotrons or other non-commercial EUV light sources.

Click to expand...

Exactly.

This is business as usual. Although this is a rather unique place in time and space.

theorlonator said:

This may be cope, but for what it's worth...

https://twitter.com/i/web/status/1602328855460696064

Click to expand...

It is all disinformation IMHO.

1) It is only Bloomberg reporting the same story. They first reported the anonymous sources, now the same Bloomberg following up on it.

2) The original story said that the Dutch authorities will agree to the ban next month, after two Dutch ministers said the opposite the past two weeks. The problem here is the calendar. For non-white people, we all have to remember that this is the Christmas holiday, and no one in government is going to do any work at all. By suggesting next month, all that is doing is trying to keep this story alive. It could be dead for all we know.

3) Besides, this was done all ass-backwards anyways. The Americans announced their IC bans against China unilaterally, because no one else wanted to go along with it. US officials publicly on record stating no one else is with them at this time, but they expect them to comply later. Surely, attempts were made to have those allies comply now, which were totally rejected. By suggesting there is a ban coming, at this stage of the game, seems more like damage control.