Chinese semiconductor industry

Status
Not open for further replies.
horse

horse

Colonel
Registered Member
hvpc said:
You underestimate the resourcefulness of those in the semiconductor industry and the US government's ability to obtain information. We are paid to know information before the media.

Do you really think the USG found out about PXW from the media?
Click to expand...

Yes, absolutely.

These people in the link below, are the US government. They found out this info from the press.

That letter they put their John Hancock on, is all the proof we need.

https://www.sinodefenceforum.com/t/funny-stuff-thread-to-loosen-your-day.3096/post-902186

:oops:

Now if we are talking about clandestine services being the US government, then that is neither here nor there.

If CIA knows, then CIA probably will not tell you or us, that they know, because they do not want you or us to know that they know.

But experience has shown everybody that often the American clandestine services really know nothing at all.

An example from this week, is the German visit to China, followed by a speech from the French leader to state that confrontation with China is not a good idea. Then the Dutch would hint in the strongest possible terms, that AMSL should not be subject to American dictates.

The Biden people were clearly blindsided by this. They wanted the Europeans onboard with them, so that they can confront China together. The Europeans want no part of that. The Europeans would like to feel free to pursue an independent China policy. Like who knew, eh?

The Biden people found this out just like the rest of us, through the press and not their CIA buddies.

Give peace a chance.

:)
 
olalavn

olalavn

Senior Member
Registered Member
hvpc said:
You underestimate the resourcefulness of those in the semiconductor industry and the US government's ability to obtain information. We are paid to know information before the media.

Do you really think the USG found out about PXW from the media?
Click to expand...
I have never underestimated the CIA... but I also don't appreciate their Chinese..and PXW is just a small part of the foundry
 
Last edited:
E

european_guy

Junior Member
Registered Member
hvpc said:
: ) Sounds like you agree with me that it's not easy for ASML to replace US origin parts.

If I remember correctly, all ASML scanner's reticle handling, reticle stage modules, optical sensors, wafer stage positioning module, and even some optics are fabricated in their U.S. Connecticut factory. You could check out their website, I'm sure there's some introduction of their manufacturing sites around the world and what they each build.
Click to expand...

IMO for ASML has no sense to replace US origin parts.

This is just to mistake the finger for the moon. Here the moon is that US does not want ASML to sell in China. Even if ASML would succeed in replacing US origin parts, US would abruptly create out of the blue some other rule / limitation / excuse / threat to ban ASML.

ASML / Holland / EU cannot go against US head on. Maybe China can do this, and actually it is already doing it in many fields, but for us this does not work.

What ASML and Dutch govrenment can do, and are doing since 2 years now, is to workaround and water down the US brute force, gaining time, playing with words, do some smoke and mirror, paying lip service, etc. Contrary to what Chinese officials have publicly stated regarding China-US relation, we European have to confront US from a position of weakness. We know that, but we are also used to that. I don't know how it will go with ASML, at the moment the odds are against ASML, but I also think that when and how the ban materialize is an integral part of the target. Is not just part of the negotiation process, is the target too.

Contrary to what many people here may think, for me if SMEE would be already in production today, that would be a huge help for ASML. But unfortunately it is not: you cannot hide too much something that exists, it is easier to hide something that does not exist.
 
A

antiterror13

Brigadier
hvpc said:
You underestimate the resourcefulness of those in the semiconductor industry and the US government's ability to obtain information. We are paid to know information before the media.

Do you really think the USG found out about PXW from the media?
Click to expand...

Sorry about this question, what is "PXW" ?
 
M

Maddy7881

New Member
Registered Member
european_guy said:
IMO for ASML has no sense to replace US origin parts.

This is just to mistake the finger for the moon. Here the moon is that US does not want ASML to sell in China. Even if ASML would succeed in replacing US origin parts, US would abruptly create out of the blue some other rule / limitation / excuse / threat to ban ASML.

ASML / Holland / EU cannot go against US head on. Maybe China can do this, and actually it is already doing it in many fields, but for us this does not work.

What ASML and Dutch govrenment can do, and are doing since 2 years now, is to workaround and water down the US brute force, gaining time, playing with words, do some smoke and mirror, paying lip service, etc. Contrary to what Chinese officials have publicly stated regarding China-US relation, we European have to confront US from a position of weakness. We know that, but we are also used to that. I don't know how it will go with ASML, at the moment the odds are against ASML, but I also think that when and how the ban materialize is an integral part of the target. Is not just part of the negotiation process, is the target too.

Contrary to what many people here may think, for me if SMEE would be already in production today, that would be a huge help for ASML. But unfortunately it is not: you cannot hide too much something that exists, it is easier to hide something that does not exist.
Click to expand...
I think China's most prominent weakness is in story telling. If China had even hinted about restricting lithium exports or rare earth metals to the States, the conventional as well as Internet media would have been saturated by the apparent aggressiveness of CCP or the need to free the world from CCP centered supply chain. BUT today, when the entire Chinese industrial ecosystem is being slowly obliterated, not a single voice of sympathy for the China or the Chinese companies. When the Chinese voice is equated to the opinion of CCP, it's hard to generate sympathy, especially among the European populace.

China should be frank and let the industry leaders to express their opinion about how the semiconductor sanction is meant to impoverish the Chinese and indirectly starve the billions of people. Because , isn't it? Chinese industry leaders be it Jack Ma or Ren Jengfei or Pony Ma or other well known figures can convince the wider population that semiconductor ban isn't about military capacity building at all. Since the military hardware requirement can be nearly fulfilled by localized supply chain and won't be affected. Also, China should tell how it's carbon peaking is going to be affected by the ban. Replace the wolf warrior diplomacy, keep very low profile and open up the economy for Global south and immediately prepare for RMB based trading system. Because , tech was was enivetable after trade was loss and there will be financial war if the hegemon loses the tech war. China cannot win by trying to localize everything, because after some time, even the lithium , iron, petroleum and even soyabean exports to China will be targeted.
 
A

ansy1968

Brigadier
Registered Member
Maddy7881 said:
I think China's most prominent weakness is in story telling. If China had even hinted about restricting lithium exports or rare earth metals to the States, the conventional as well as Internet media would have been saturated by the apparent aggressiveness of CCP or the need to free the world from CCP centered supply chain. BUT today, when the entire Chinese industrial ecosystem is being slowly obliterated, not a single voice of sympathy for the China or the Chinese companies. When the Chinese voice is equated to the opinion of CCP, it's hard to generate sympathy, especially among the European populace.

China should be frank and let the industry leaders to express their opinion about how the semiconductor sanction is meant to impoverish the Chinese and indirectly starve the billions of people. Because , isn't it? Chinese industry leaders be it Jack Ma or Ren Jengfei or Pony Ma or other well known figures can convince the wider population that semiconductor ban isn't about military capacity building at all. Since the military hardware requirement can be nearly fulfilled by localized supply chain and won't be affected. Also, China should tell how it's carbon peaking is going to be affected by the ban. Replace the wolf warrior diplomacy, keep very low profile and open up the economy for Global south and immediately prepare for RMB based trading system. Because , tech was was enivetable after trade was loss and there will be financial war if the hegemon loses the tech war. China cannot win by trying to localize everything, because after some time, even the lithium , iron, petroleum and even soyabean exports to China will be targeted.
Click to expand...
Bro the Chinese are facing an opinionated voice from the Collective West, the only way to change those so called opinion is to go thru the domestic route. I'm happy that the Collective West implement a partial ban and even full restriction, because from now on any Chinese tech success is their owned not by some white man. ;)
 
M

mmbro

New Member
Registered Member
Maddy7881 said:
Because , tech was was enivetable after trade was loss and there will be financial war if the hegemon loses the tech war. China cannot win by trying to localize everything, because after some time, even the lithium , iron, petroleum and even soyabean exports to China will be targeted.
Click to expand...
Don't worry much about financial war, or other items to be targeted. China should localize its semicon industry. Short term is no worry as China has solutions and workarounds - like a 2-year buffer!
When financial war comes in or other restrictions piling up China does have many countermeasures.
 
M

mmbro

New Member
Registered Member
ansy1968 said:
Bro the Chinese are facing an opinionated voice from the Collective West, the only way to change those so called opinion is to go thru the domestic route. I'm happy that the Collective West implement a partial ban and even full restriction, because from now on any Chinese tech success is their owned not by some white man. ;)
Click to expand...
After Huawei was targeted, months/years later China bought zero Boeing plane. Eh how many billions is that?
 
E

european_guy

Junior Member
Registered Member
Maddy7881 said:
the semiconductor sanction is meant to impoverish the Chinese and indirectly starve the billions of people.
Click to expand...

China is unstarvable now!

Maddy7881 said:
Replace the wolf warrior diplomacy
Click to expand...

I see it has already been replaced. How China approached the last G20 + APEC is clear proof of it.

Maddy7881 said:
there will be financial war if the hegemon loses the tech war.
Click to expand...

Very sensible comment, I agree 100%. I also expect that few years down the road. It will be the final battle, because if US loses dollar hegemony it loses all.

US has more than 1 trillion $ per year trade deficit with the rest of the world. It means the World works and produces stuff that sends to US in exchange of printed dollars. If one day someone in some far away land says "look, I don't want your paper for my bananas", it's the end of the road for US.

Maddy7881 said:
China cannot win by trying to localize everything, because after some time, even the lithium , iron, petroleum and even soyabean exports to China will be targeted.
Click to expand...

China will not localize everything, China is betting on the other 7 billion people that live on this planet to collaborate with. What China is doing is to move up the value chain, in what has always been the exclusive territory of Western World. What China is doing is to offer the world an alternative. This is China's unforgivable sin. The narrative by US of China closing the gap and eventually surpass US, is just that, a narrative for its people, to keep them scared and angry. But the real nightmare for US is that the world would have an alternative. This is and will always remain unacceptable for US.
 
Last edited:
Status
Not open for further replies.
Top