Chinese semiconductor industry

olalavn said:

if it comes out in time with the 193nm ARF-I it can produce 5nm... but their photoresist system is still not up to the 5nm level... 7nm can do it

Click to expand...

That's good news, but as I understand it the SSA800 did not meet all of Project 02's goals and is on the level of ASML's 1980i and not more advanced scanners. From what I gathered, the laser power needs to be raised from 60W to 90W and a dual stage workpiece is required. @WTAN, @FairAndUnbiased, or other knowledgeable users can correct me if I'm wrong here.

horse said:

Why?

1. Fabs are expensive. 14nm fab should cost more than 28nm. Also, the 14nm chip mostly goes into computing equipment, which i) Chinese firms have been stockpiling, and ii) lots of capacity elsewhere in the world, meaning more competition.

Click to expand...

There is a lot more 28nm capacity than 14nm in the world

horse said:

2. It is a moot point too, about American sanctions and bans. The latest round of US sanctions, essentially means there will be no more servicing of equipment. If US personnel are forbidden to help Chinese companies, then those US machines will be not serviced by Americans.

Imagine yourself buying a car, with a law that says no servicing. The American IC company equipment maker was taken out of the entire Chinese market.

If SMIC says they are afraid of US sanctions, not sure which sanctions those would be, because everything has already been sanctioned, literally! LOL.

Click to expand...

That's what basically SMIC said，implicitly，they are afraid of US sanctions. So they always stress that they comply with US regulation，Huahong said the same thing.

tonyget said:

The new US ban seems to caught many Chinese companies by surprise，and they have to rush to get as many US equipments as possible before deadline. It just shows how naive these Chinese companies are，do they still not get it that the US and China are in a tech war，that supply from the US is so unreliable which could be cutoff anytime？

They don't seem to have learned anything from all the blacklisted companies，it only when themself get bite do them feel the pain.

Click to expand...

Maybe they thought they had more time, I mean the latest controls were pretty unprecedented given that there was no coordination, industry feedback, etc that usually happens. As prev posters have pointed out, SMIC and others are localizing as fast as they can but domestic companies have 12 month long back-orders so if you want to address your short term expansion to meet customer needs you have to buy from the US/Japan/Europe. If you have the choice of expanding your 28nm production now with American equipment or waiting 1+ years for local equipment to be available in volume I think you pick your battles. The reality is the American companies have the capacity, and if you want something sooner they are the only game in town right now.

Also, you can't just flip a switch and start buying domestic. Nobody will buy and deploy equipment in volume from a new vendor (local or otherwise) until they have had time to evaluate, qualify and validate for their use. They will get small quantities for that to pilot and once they are satisfied with results, will they begin to order in volume. There is a lag between when we hear about it and when it actually will translate into actual output. That and this is big capital equipment, it requires install, training, etc.

It's not naviety, they are being pragmatic following a dual track approach: you have to work with the US for the near future for business continuity because there are needs to be met, but it doesn't preclude you from working on parallel paths to go beyond what they limit you to.

paiemon said:

Maybe they thought they had more time, I mean the latest controls were pretty unprecedented

Click to expand...

I recall one or two month before this new ban，the US already said they are preparing to release a new round of control on semiconductor export to China，though they did not mention what would it be at the time. But the US did give Chinese companies early warnings，so you cannot say it's out of nowhere and no time to react

Semiconductor is in downturn cycle at the moment，many fabless withdraw their order，many fabs paused their expansion plan. So I don't think Chinese fabs are in a hurry to get the production start.

tonyget said:

There is a lot more 28nm capacity than 14nm in the world


That's what basically SMIC said，implicitly，they are afraid of US sanctions. So they always stress that they comply with US regulation，Huahong said the same thing.

Click to expand...

Bro, SMiC is already banned from US parts, whats there to comply anymore? Common sense mate.

Most Chinese companies will appear submissive to bide their time. Its the classical Chinese strategy, how many times did China managed to suprise people?

1) we were supposedly to have been destroyed by the trade war.
2) by covid in 2020,end up the whole world got fcked for 2 years while we thrive then. Now in 2022,jist because of a 2.5 lockdown we are the villain again while 80k Americans died since then. I am no proponent of zero covid but Chinese government is not stupid.
3)Huawei is still alive and earning billions.
4)

tonyget said:

I recall one or two month before this new ban，the US already said they are preparing to release a new round of control on semiconductor export to China，though they did not mention what would it be at the time. But the US did give Chinese companies early warnings，so you cannot say it's out of nowhere and no time to react

Click to expand...

You are right they did get warnings, most recently and over the past few years with what's been happening hence all the news on localization and working more with non-US vendors but unless localization has reached the point where there are warehouses full of domestic equipment ready to replace the existing installed production lines and planned expansion, I am hard pressed to see what SMIC and its peers can do for their operations in the meantime. Counting time until domestic comes out in full force is not a realistic scenario, so why not make the most of what they can? Its not like what they are buying from the US is wasted, there is demand for the products at those nodes in China. And from what others have described they probably have some third party companies who can provide servicing or spare parts similar to what the OEMs would normally do, so even a full cutoff is not the end.

Han Patriot said:

Bro, SMiC is already banned from US parts, whats there to comply anymore? Common sense mate.

Click to expand...

Nope，they can still buy US equipments，with restrictions，just like Huawei. Huawei is still complying with US rules，did you know that？Huawei refuse to provide Russia new telecom equipments，even as the Russians urge them to，as Nokia and Ericsson left Russia.

theorlonator said:

This whole forum is contained with posts showing that all the domestic equipment companies are increasing their revenue. Just because a person said "domestic companies aren't happy about it and think the US will change" doesn't mean that they're not acting upon domestication.

Click to expand...

Well the first step to solve a problem is recognizing that you have a problem yo begin with.

tonyget said:

The new US ban seems to caught many Chinese companies by surprise，and they have to rush to get as many US equipments as possible before deadline. It just shows how naive these Chinese companies are，do they still not get it that the US and China are in a tech war，that supply from the US is so unreliable which could be cutoff anytime？

They don't seem to have learned anything from all the blacklisted companies，it only when themself get bite do them feel the pain.

Click to expand...

tonyget said:

Nope，they can still buy US equipments

Click to expand...

They can't anymore, the new guy doesn't care about profits (his words) and the Hawks republicans are watching over him, is probably that SMIC will no receive licenses anytime soon. IF they have receive any.

tonyget said:

So it's clear now. The reason SMIC only build new 28nm fabs but not 14nm fabs，is that SMIC still needs（or wants）to comply with US regulations.
I remember earlier in this thread，I said that SMIC keep building new 28nm fabs but not 14nm fabs，is a sign that SMIC cannot get US equipment for 14nm process. A lot of people disagree，they say that SMIC don't build 14nm fabs is because there is no demand for 14nm in China，and SMIC isn't interest in building 14nm fab. They also claim that SMIC can totally build new 14nm fab without US equipments right now.
Well now SMIC made it loud and clear，the reason their newly expanded 28nm capacity isn't affected by the new US restriction，is NOT because they don't need US tech for 28nm fab anymore. Rather，it is because their technology is below the threshold set by the US.

Click to expand...

Except for some of the more enthusiastic here you won't find a lot of people claiming otherwise in this place.

SMIC cut their plans to boost 14nm and lower production a couple years back when they were hit with sanctions the first time. SMIC had ordered an EUV machine from ASML and the US got the Dutch government to block the sale. It is also quite likely that 7nm and lower, even if possible to implement without an EUV machine, will not be cost effective because of the huge amount of extra processing steps required. It was also widely known, back then, that the US government commission headed by Eric Schmidt wanted to block sales of 14nm capable equipment to China. So SMIC changed focus from 14nm and lower to expanding production of 28nm and higher processes. Dr. Liang Mong Song, the head of the team who developed 28nm and 14nm for SMIC, was against changing focus to older processes and threatened to leave the company. To placate him they had to give him a higher salary and better position. Still, work continues on improving 14nm and lower processes at SMIC within their existing production facilities.

Right now the best production facilities China can build with only its own made tools would use dry ArF i.e. 300mm wafers at 65nm. A lot of Chinese companies are working on the 28nm and 14nm and lower process tools which will require immersion lithography and improvements to the other machine tools. If you read the news folks have been posting here a lot of the other tools, other than lithography, are already 28nm capable, and some are even 14nm or even 7nm capable. There are all sorts of claims about the current capability of the Chinese immersion lithography tool prototype, or lack of capabilities, but the thing is AFAIK Chinese ArF tools of any kind are not used in mass production anywhere in China yet. Even the Chinese dry ArF lithography tools seem to be used by basically no one after being produced. SMEE has only sold some KrF lithography tools and not that many at that. The problem is SMEE's DUV excimer laser tools are not as efficient as the alternatives available outside of China so of course fabs won't buy them unless they have to. And to mass produce the immersion lithography tools will require new fabrication facilities which are planned to only begin production in 2025.