Chinese semiconductor industry

tonyget said:

Prove it that there is no demand for 14nm in China

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tonyget said:

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And more bad news.

Firstly，compare to the hotly debated topic "domestic substitution" by the public. Chinese semiconductor firms aren't actually so enthusiastic about it. Some of them still have delusions about the US may lift the ban in the future，as stated in the artical below，and some are just satisfied with status quo. Which is the same thing.

Because as the US semiconductor tech advance further in future，they may update the threshold of the ban. And many Chinese firms may just satisfied with status quo of trailing behind the US，satisfied with taking what ever the US allowable，not interest with catching up.



There are domestic equipment manufactures using imported core components，to quickly push put new products，and claim credit for it. When the ban on these core components comes，these domestic equipment will be just as unreliable as foreign ones.

Also，there are fabs loves to talk about how supportive they are to domestic equipment/materials，but it's mere rhetoric，lack real action.

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tokenanalyst said:

Yes, they clearly needed to do two step back to do a jump, A LONG TIME AGO at the time ZTE was added to the blacklist and not become dependent of unreliable companies.

Components is not a big deal as long is not American or made in the US. Locally made components should have the biggest market share, followed by non US components and with the current situation US components should be treated as mercury salts.

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horse said:

Why?

1. Fabs are expensive. 14nm fab should cost more than 28nm. Also, the 14nm chip mostly goes into computing equipment, which i) Chinese firms have been stockpiling, and ii) lots of capacity elsewhere in the world, meaning more competition.

2. It is a moot point too, about American sanctions and bans. The latest round of US sanctions, essentially means there will be no more servicing of equipment. If US personnel are forbidden to help Chinese companies, then those US machines will be not serviced by Americans.

Imagine yourself buying a car, with a law that says no servicing. The American IC company equipment maker was taken out of the entire Chinese market.

If SMIC says they are afraid of US sanctions, not sure which sanctions those would be, because everything has already been sanctioned, literally! LOL.

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theorlonator said:

This whole forum is contained with posts showing that all the domestic equipment companies are increasing their revenue. Just because a person said "domestic companies aren't happy about it and think the US will change" doesn't mean that they're not acting upon domestication.

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olalavn said:

because most of the R&D of mainland chip companies is still 40nm or less, very few companies have the ability to accelerate R&D

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mst said:

If regulations as tough as those for semiconductor equipment are applied to display equipment and materials makers, it is difficult for Chinese companies to receive core materials and equipment for displays. For example, in the glass substrate domain, U.S. company Corning holds a market share of more than 70 percent.

Is glass material a concern? any supplier in China?

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ZeEa5KPul said:

I'm surprised I have to correct you on this. China has fully indigenized 28nm production and the lithography tools will be mass produced next year. ICRD is currently testing an indigenous 14nm line and so far so good. What's unclear is if the SSA800 (the machine that was verified this year and starting mass production next year) can go down to 7nm or if further refinements/a new machine will be required.

That's the picture for indigenous tools. China has a stock of foreign tools it can still use (even without service agreements) and indigenous tools will be ready (even indigenous EUVL) long before these tools are exhausted. So the path down to 7nm is clear.

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