Chinese semiconductor industry

Status
Not open for further replies.

vincent

Grumpy Old Man
Staff member
Moderator - World Affairs
Isn’t this normal way of working? 18months after filing is when most patents are published.

It could very well be true that immersion system is in mass production. But, publication of a patent doesn’t automatically equate to start of mass production. Publication date can’t be used as a validation of mass production.
Sure. Just because Biden keeps on babbling non-sense like the US has 54 states doesn’t mean he is senile.
 
Last edited:

tphuang

Lieutenant General
Staff member
Super Moderator
VIP Professional
Registered Member
Looks like there is another chip design firm doing automotive Soc. SiEngine (with funding from Geely and others) is working a automotive SoC based on 7 nm process. Their second gen chip AD1000 should abe ready for tape out next year and will satisfy the highest requirement of ADAS. Still no idea who is producing their chips.
Please, Log in or Register to view URLs content!
Please, Log in or Register to view URLs content!
Please, Log in or Register to view URLs content!

And secondly, this is kind of an interesting piece of internet news from Hygon. Apparently, there was some panic introduced in China by an "expert" from SI fund manager that Hygon was running out of chips and that people should buy as many as they could get.

Please, Log in or Register to view URLs content!
So a few point from this user's comment. It seems like Samsung and TSMC have since the 21st have temporarily stopped production on certain Chinese chips. We've heard a similar report from digitime that certain 3/5/7 nm chip production have stopped while awaiting clarification from US gov't on whether or not they can be produced. I must say the idea that Hygon CPU production stopping would be strange since they are using older process that SMIC is fully capable of carrying out. And more importantly, SMIC is already producing chips from Hygon as this weibo post mentioned. And more importantly, Hygon had said it stocked enough chips until second half of next year.

Filtering out the noise, I would say that:
1) It is likely that some chip production have stopped temporarily. Seems like Samsung/TSMC are being extra cautious to not get in trouble with US gov't. My guess is that most chips that are not of AI variety or even low end AI would be allowed to continue.
2) Domestic CPU makers likely have already all started production with SMIC on 14 nm process or better.
3) know that sanctions are possible, most Chinese chip design shops have been stocking up chips. We know that Huawei somehow still has Kunpeng chips for sale on major bids in China. As such, it is like firms like Alibaba (w/ Yitian-710), Hygon, Baidu (w/ Kunlun), Biren and others have all stocked up enough chips to last through the period of shifting production from TSMC/Samsung to SMIC.
4) While it is likely most of the chip firms can continue to get their chips produced by Samsung/TSMC, it is always possible that is not the case.
5) As such, Chinese gov't should do its best to help SMIC to expand production of its advanced nodes. Since this is becoming a national security issue, it really is no time to be laisse faire about this.
 

Quickie

Colonel
Isn’t this normal way of working? 18months after filing is when most patents are published.

It could very well be true that immersion system is in mass production. But, publication of a patent doesn’t automatically equate to start of mass production. Publication date can’t be used as a validation of mass production.

Given the stage of the Chip War we are at, I wouldn't be surprised if they have already proceeded with mass-producing it and shipped out a number of units already. How fantastic they will turn out to be we will know soon enough.
 

ansy1968

Brigadier
Registered Member
Given the stage of the Chip War we are at, I wouldn't be surprised if they have already proceeded with mass-producing it and shipped out a number of units already. How fantastic they will turn out to be we will know soon enough.
Bro for me Carl Sagan quote is the most applicable in explaining the Chinese IC development "Absence of Evidence does not mean Evidence of Absence". ;)
 

resistance

Junior Member
Registered Member
Bro for me Carl Sagan quote is the most applicable in explaining the Chinese IC development "Absence of Evidence does not mean Evidence of Absence". ;)
I hope they will mass produce before dutch and Japan joins US sanction due to pressure.
 

ansy1968

Brigadier
Registered Member
I hope they will mass produce before dutch and Japan joins US sanction due to pressure.
Bro I'm known here as the most optimistic of the bunch....lol BUT IF you connect the dot, year 2020 the domestic 28nm line had been established, SMEE SSA800 28nm DUVL had finished it's verification in 2021 with it the 14nm line this year. So my speculation 8 to 12 prototype units will be build this year as a pilot run for mass production next year as major component provider finished their expansion plan.

And you have to look at SMIC expansion plan as proof, yes they will be using ASML machine BUT with 6 FABS under construction simultaneously (Beijing, Shanghai Lingang, SN2, Shenzhen, Chongqing and Tianjin) some of those FABS will be using indigenous equipment and my guess, only Shanghai Lingang and SN2 will be using all ASML.
 

european_guy

Junior Member
Registered Member
Anyways, SMIC/Huahong have their earnings call on Thursday. 11/11 is Friday, which will mean new products and pricing will be unveiled. I expect there to be a lot of news this week.

This is THE event of the week.

We will get a first realistic and reliable evaluation of the actual impact of US sanctions for 2023.

My opinion is that without banning also Japan and ASML, the impact will be limited in the short term, and will be overcome in the medium term. I only have some doubts about KLA replacement, but for AMAT and LAM research I think gap will be closed quite soon.

One point to keep in mind is that China for the time being does not need state-of-the-art equipment, but just 7/14nm and above equipment. This is not a small detail.
 
Status
Not open for further replies.
Top