Chinese semiconductor industry

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FairAndUnbiased

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In my opinion US goals are the following

1. To cramp China development in Digital Economy. Semiconductor is instrumental, like is AI, data centers, etc. The target is what China calls "Digital Economy Revolution", the foundation of techno/economic power in 21st century. US wants to keep the leadership and slow down and even straight damage China as much as it can.

2. Decouple Chinese Digital Economy from the rest of the world (in the very self-referential western definition of World). Here we are still at the beginning, but much more is expected. Chinese high-tech firms will have a hard time selling their products outside China. At least this is the target IMO.

3. Force the so called allies to be even more loyal and submissive. This is the base for a successful friend-shoring policy. US realizes that full on-shoring is not possible, so the target is to friend-shore: let others (Japan, Taiwan, Korea, etc) to do the hard work and also on the cheap, but ensure they will promptly abide to any new US rule. So they will have their cake and eat it too. One of the strategic ideas behind pushing TSMC, Samsung, etc to open US fabs is to create leverage to better blackmail them when needed.

Of course this does not mean this will succeed. It never succeed in history, like for instance when US itself was blocked from acquiring European technology in 19th century, very possibly (and hopefully) it will not succeed today.
They'll never be able to ban third world countries and Russia from buying Chinese products. If they pulled the "it's us or China" card, they won't like the choices made.
 

ansy1968

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They'll never be able to ban third world countries and Russia from buying Chinese products. If they pulled the "it's us or China" card, they won't like the choices made.
Bro plus the Gulf state and even some European countries, American product are mostly hype, I can't understand especially my own family why they loved Apple so much, heck they always borrow and use my Huawei P30 PRO when taking selfies and picture instead of their Iphone. :mad:
 

ansy1968

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No worries for Intel ,The battle line had been drawn between the US and China, and they're the American Champion vs China SMIC, while the rest are just an afterthought, TSMC maybe a giant today within 10 years, they will be taken over by either of one of them.

For its big comeback, Intel needs to spend money – and it's making less and less of it​

The party's over and the pain begins​

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Sat 29 Oct 2022 // 00:26 UTC

ANALYSIS For a company hoping to make a grand comeback in a few years, things are not looking great for Intel.
On Thursday, it
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plans to lay off staff and cut billions of dollars in spending after its third-quarter revenues fell 20 percent, year on year, and profit plunged 85 percent.
This comes after the American semiconductor giant reported similarly bleak results for the
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, and the main problem areas were the same as they are now: Intel is suffering major losses with its two biggest moneymakers, server and PC chips.
In Intel's PC chip business, the Client Computing Group, revenue dropped 17 percent year-over-year to $8.1 billion in the third quarter while operating income declined 54 percent to $1.6 billion over the same period. As for the Datacenter and AI Group, things were even worse, with revenue declining 27 percent to $4.2 billion while operating income fell by 99 percent to an abysmal $17 million.


The main culprits for the dismal figures: individuals and educational institutions were buying fewer laptops while businesses significantly slowed down server purchases.
Intel made sure to put most of the blame for this behavior on a "deteriorating" economy, beset by "slowing consumer demand, persistent inflation, and higher interest rates," as it explained in its latest
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with the US Securities and Exchange Commission on Friday.
But it's also clear the chipmaker continues to face competitive pressure from x86 rival AMD as well as organizations that are making Arm-based processors, such as Apple, Amazon, and Ampere Computing.
On Intel's earnings call with Wall St analysts this week, CEO Pat Gelsinger admitted his company's server CPU market share was "not where we want it to be," though it was in line with expectations.
The precipitous drop in server and PC chip revenues prompted Intel to lower its forecast for 2022 revenue for the second time this year, from $76 billion
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, to a range of $65 billion to $68 billion
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, to range of $63 to $64 billion in the company's
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.
That means in its worst-case scenario, Intel now expects to record $13 billion less revenue in 2022 than what it projected several months ago, and that's assuming the biz can successfully execute its current plan in the fourth quarter. At $63 billion in revenue for 2022, that would mark a 20 percent decline from the $79 billion Intel took in total sales last year.
These are sobering figures for a corporation that grew steadily and achieved record revenues for the
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, but they are at least partially the result of
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that allowed it to fall behind Asian foundry rivals TSMC and Samsung in next-generation process nodes.
This is what makes Gelsinger's comeback plan all the more urgent and challenging at the same time: the company said it needs to spend several billion dollars over the next few years,
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in February, to surpass its foundry rivals and return to "process performance leadership" by 2025 while facing increasingly immense economic and competitive pressures.
Investors are't keen on how Gelsinger's comeback plan will drag down gross margins and cause Intel to become cash-flow negative this year, then neutral the next two years, before the company expects to truly enjoy the results of its investments. They were, however, happy to hear that Intel now plans to ditch a "meaningful number" of employees and cut loose some products as part of a massive reduction in spending that may reach up to $10 billion annually by 2025.
But this all supposes that Gelsinger's comeback plan will work and that the x86 titan's chips will be much more competitive a few years from now.
For what it's worth, Gelsinger said on Thursday that Intel remains on track to achieve "transistor performance and power performance leadership by 2025." And sentiment already seems to be changing with Intel's latest CPUs for PCs, thanks to meaningful gains found in its just-released
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, also known under the code name Raptor Lake.
This is to say, Intel better hope it can fully execute on Gelsinger's comeback plan in the face of increasing misfortunes. Because if it can't, greater challenges may await. ®
 

BlackWindMnt

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Bro plus the Gulf state and even some European countries, American product are mostly hype, I can't understand especially my own family why they loved Apple so much, heck they always borrow and use my Huawei P30 PRO when taking selfies and picture instead of their Iphone. :mad:
Apple products are status symbols and the Apple ecosystem is good like real good. Shit just works and integrates to the point like wtf are Microsoft even doing with their windows ecosystem.

After having used my Macbook Pro arm M1 variant there is no way im ever going back to something having an intel or AMD cpu in it.
My macbook actually allows me to just couch program again without frying off my balls or sounding like a fighter jet taking off when i do something cpu intense.
 

ansy1968

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Apple products are status symbols and the Apple ecosystem is good like real good. Shit just works and integrates to the point like wtf are Microsoft even doing with their windows ecosystem.

After having used my Macbook Pro arm M1 variant there is no way im ever going back to something having an intel or AMD cpu in it.
My macbook actually allows me to just couch program again without frying off my balls or sounding like a fighter jet taking off when i do something cpu intense.
I know bro, my son and my wife want to gift me an Iphone and I refuse, maintaining my vow of either a Huawei or no way....lol I will remained loyal and wait for its return hopefully by 2023. :)
 

ACuriousPLAFan

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They'll never be able to ban third world countries and Russia from buying Chinese products. If they pulled the "it's us or China" card, they won't like the choices made.
When you have countries choosing Huawei over F-35s , you can understand the kind of an uphill battle they have .
I think the bigger problem for those so-called "upholding free and open market" countries is that China is capable of offering BOTH Huawei AND F-35-equivalent fighters (i.e. J-31/J-35, or cheaper alternatives like J-10, JF-17 or JL-10) simultaneously at affordable prices - Something that those countries are largely incapable of doing the same.

I know bro, my son and my wife want to gift me an Iphone and I refuse, maintaining my vow of either a Huawei or no way....lol I will remained loyal and wait for its return hopefully by 2023. :)
Try OPPO or Xiaomi next?
 

Weaasel

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In the long run, meanwhile, the U.S. may have given up what would have been, thanks to the sheer amount of cost and learning curve distance involved, a permanent economic advantage. Absent politics there simply is no reason to compete with TSMC or ASML or any of the other specialized parts of the supply chain; it would simply be easier to buy instead of build. Now, though, it is possible to envision a future where China undercuts U.S. companies in chips just like they once did in more labor-intensive industries
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Governments, states, and societies do not rigidly adhere to the law of comparative advantage, otherwise, there will be countries that would seek to remain fully agrarian - and that would not bring about socio economic development and modernity. There is no way that most of the power elites of a country like China would be satisfied with not having the comprehensive capability to produce semiconductor and IC chip manufacturing equipment of all kinds. The logic of the least cost does not always and should NEVER always guide the interests of the leaders of any country.
 

Weaasel

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Paul Triolo isn't Blob or Pundits but he's kind of sceptical of total indigenization
While he does make valid points, given the extreme hostility of the United States and its efforts to ensure that foreign countries do not supply any sophisticated chips and manufacturing equipment to China, and its great ability to influence other countries not to do so, China MUST comprehensively establish sophisticated chips manufacturing and equipment manufacturing enterprises within China and have an entire domestic local supply chain that cannot be interdicted by the United States or any other hostile country.
 
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