Chinese semiconductor industry
- Thread starter Hendrik_2000
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He is an idiot. China is the largest semiconductor market in the world. The demand will make it happen. The only question is when.
You just have to look at the industry. China at one point did not even have their own DSPs, FPGAs, etc and now they do. SMIC is on track to be #2 in the foundry space in terms of wafers produced over the next two years. SMIC has also proven they can be leading edge in terms of process when they have access to the proper tools. They already have better process technology than their competitors GlobalFoundries and UMC. They are only behind in process technology to TSMC and Samsung and that is only because they are not allowed to buy EUV machines. China has a weakness in the semi tools sector but given their existing know-how in precision optics, lasers, precision machining tools, etc there is no reason why they cannot catch up given enough time and investment.
Gigaphoton in Japan can produce EUV lasers for lithography machines and so can Trumpf in Germany.
Seems to me that Paul Triolo is a consultant. He is an important person, because his clients are the people in Washington DC who pay to listen to his advice.
If his advice is wrong, or simply nutz, well then ...
Guess he will be in line for a Gordan Chang award.
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Let's not be too hostile as long as the other side is not a China hawk. One may have a disagreement without calling names.
RTP equipment assembly
antiterror13
Brigadier
Even if the "inefficiency cost" were $300B a year in China ... actually doesn't really matter, as most of the $300B would be spent inside China which would encourage economy in that sector. Also the "inefficiency" could be considered R & D cost anyway, part of learning, kind of "trial and error"
I think only Cymer and Gigaphoton produce EUV sources which is probably what he meant (speaks volumes about his expertise though). Trumpf is also a supplier to ASML but of CO2 lasers. There are also companies like Ushio (JP) who make less powerful EUV sources.
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In my opinion US goals are the following
1. To cramp China development in Digital Economy. Semiconductor is instrumental, like is AI, data centers, etc. The target is what China calls "Digital Economy Revolution", the foundation of techno/economic power in 21st century. US wants to keep the leadership and slow down and even straight damage China as much as it can.
2. Decouple Chinese Digital Economy from the rest of the world (in the very self-referential western definition of World). Here we are still at the beginning, but much more is expected. Chinese high-tech firms will have a hard time selling their products outside China. At least this is the target IMO.
3. Force the so called allies to be even more loyal and submissive. This is the base for a successful friend-shoring policy. US realizes that full on-shoring is not possible, so the target is to friend-shore: let others (Japan, Taiwan, Korea, etc) to do the hard work and also on the cheap, but ensure they will promptly abide to any new US rule. So they will have their cake and eat it too. One of the strategic ideas behind pushing TSMC, Samsung, etc to open US fabs is to create leverage to better blackmail them when needed.
Of course this does not mean this will succeed. It never succeed in history, like for instance when US itself was blocked from acquiring European technology in 19th century, very possibly (and hopefully) it will not succeed today.
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we should remember China is still a developing country... they can afford to develop high-end chips from 2025... the goal of the US to hold China back to let Intel engineers train in TSMC... but I think it's useless.
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