Chinese semiconductor industry

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BlackWindMnt

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KLA estimates up to $900m revenue hit in 2023 from China chip ban​

Latest export curb deals blow to major U.S. chipmaking tool suppliers.

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I think U.S. politicians massively underestimated the effects of this sanctions, I am starting to believe that all of this was politically motivated because the midterm elections like one the poster here said and they really don't understand the industry very well.
The mid term election is at 8 nov and the G20 summit is the week following the mid term election if i'm not mistaken.

Do you guys think the US will move back those sanctions. Given the whole G20 diplomacy vibe they could spin it and save a bit of face by saying we want to compete with China etc instead of killing Chinese tech sector.
 

WTAN

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He lives! My guy... post!

In your view, can we consider 28nm completely indigenized now?
Yes, China now has a fully localised production line for 28nm ICs.
The SMEE 28nm Litho will be mass produced from the beginning of next year.
The Covid lockdowns delayed many things but the suppliers have been expanding production facilities to meet the demand for next year.
The success of ICRD in trialing the fully localised 14nm production line is significant.
It will mean a fully localised production line for 14nm ICs can be developed rapidly if required.
Also bear in mind that much of the equipment for 14nm production can also be used for 7nm production with minimal changes involved.
Here China has killed 2 birds with one stone.
Expect fully localised 7nm production to follow quite soon after.
 

caudaceus

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LMAO how are they going to sanction RISC-V? RISC-V is an open standard, the US can sanction however much they like, but they cant remove an open standard.
Don't underestimate densenes and craziness of NatSec apparatchiks. When China semicon goes hard to RISC-V they will perceive any American tech companies supporting RISC-V as aiding the enemies.
 

BlackWindMnt

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Don't underestimate densenes and craziness of NatSec apparatchiks. When China semicon goes hard to RISC-V they will perceive any American tech companies supporting RISC-V as aiding the enemies.
Well one of the top RISC-V design studios is part of intel that would again be shooting yourself in the foot.
 

daifo

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LMAO how are they going to sanction RISC-V? RISC-V is an open standard, the US can sanction however much they like, but they cant remove an open standard. Also forcing Intel/AMD to not use RISC-V is like the ultimate self-own. While RISC-V may not be used extensively as a main compute chip yet, it is still used extensively as a sub processor or microcontroller for specific applications. Then again, I highly doubt that Intel/AMD will ever go full RISC-V.

Before the mega corps (msft, sco, sun etc) embraced it (or just died off).. they were spending money (including paying off politicians) to get it (open source included) killed off cause national security , communism, copyright blah blah
 

tokenanalyst

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Well one of the top RISC-V design studios is part of intel that would again be shooting yourself in the foot.
RISC-V is just an free specification, a book of some sort on how to build processors circuits to run RISC-V compiled software, the microarchitectural implementation, the IC itself is up to individuals companies. SiFive bought by Intel is one of those companies but also is nuclei, the first Chinese company to join the group.

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tphuang

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The mid term election is at 8 nov and the G20 summit is the week following the mid term election if i'm not mistaken.

Do you guys think the US will move back those sanctions. Given the whole G20 diplomacy vibe they could spin it and save a bit of face by saying we want to compete with China etc instead of killing Chinese tech sector.

No, too late, the hawks Republicans won't let them with out whining, like they always do, so they already lowered the bar and the bar never goes up only down.
Exactly. Not going to happen. Once sanction goes into effect, they are very hard to remove. Besides, GOP is most likely going to win the house this time and they've already boasted about how they are going to be even tougher on China. It's a winning issue to say that you are tough on China.

I do think that KLA/Lam/AMAT still have significantly more to lose in China. So far, they've only lost sales from Chinese fabs. Pretty soon, they are going to lose sales from the non-Chinese fabs also.

Yes, China now has a fully localised production line for 28nm ICs.
The SMEE 28nm Litho will be mass produced from the beginning of next year.
The Covid lockdowns delayed many things but the suppliers have been expanding production facilities to meet the demand for next year.
The success of ICRD in trialing the fully localised 14nm production line is significant.
It will mean a fully localised production line for 14nm ICs can be developed rapidly if required.
Also bear in mind that much of the equipment for 14nm production can also be used for 7nm production with minimal changes involved.
Here China has killed 2 birds with one stone.
Expect fully localised 7nm production to follow quite soon after.
thanks for the update. That's what I figured to. Especially with ICRD having a full Chinese production line.

Do you know about this news? Also @tokenanalyst
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This is from June and Guowang optical is said to only have its new production base ready by 2023. Do they have somewhere else that they are already producing optical systems for lithography machines?

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project 02's head engineer commented on the recent sanctions. Talked about how China had been passive in the global supply chain in the past. Now, it has to be proactive in building its own supply chain and control as much global resources as possible. Doesn't sound like a guy that's panicked at all. In fact, it sounds like he is quite optimistic.
 
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