Chinese semiconductor industry

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pbd456

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I think it's pretty clear from what I've heard so far that there aren't that many Americans working in China. The green card holders can probably be persuaded to give up their green card for another country's PR if the pay is good enough. At the end of the day, there are limited number of jobs, people will go where the money is. There is the short term inconvenience of them not being able to work in China while they get their citizenship/PR status sorted out. There are a couple of chip design startups who probably will suffer big losses, but that really won't change the course for any of the larger/more mature firms that China actually depends on. Of course, FT will post the most alarmist pieces it can find. That's what click-baiting is all about. You don't get high view counts by saying that all will be good with China.

Anyhow, on the EDA from, a short analysis here on Empyrean Technology acquiring XinDa to have a wider portfolio. Looks like they already serve SMIC and Hisilicon. I think it's just a matter of time before the domestic EDAs are up to 5 nm on everything. Would love to see them work with Samsung or TSMC.
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Alright, China's first ETF of local and SK chipmakers. Not sure if there is any significance with this.
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To keep a green card, one requires a continuous presence in US (once every 6 months -- relax to once every year during pandemic). given the travel difficulty back to china, i dont think there are many green card holders in China.
 

tokenanalyst

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I think it's pretty clear from what I've heard so far that there aren't that many Americans working in China. The green card holders can probably be persuaded to give up their green card for another country's PR if the pay is good enough. At the end of the day, there are limited number of jobs, people will go where the money is. There is the short term inconvenience of them not being able to work in China while they get their citizenship/PR status sorted out. There are a couple of chip design startups who probably will suffer big losses, but that really won't change the course for any of the larger/more mature firms that China actually depends on. Of course, FT will post the most alarmist pieces it can find. That's what click-baiting is all about. You don't get high view counts by saying that all will be good with China.

Anyhow, on the EDA from, a short analysis here on Empyrean Technology acquiring XinDa to have a wider portfolio. Looks like they already serve SMIC and Hisilicon. I think it's just a matter of time before the domestic EDAs are up to 5 nm on everything. Would love to see them work with Samsung or TSMC.
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Alright, China's first ETF of local and SK chipmakers. Not sure if there is any significance with this.
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While the China hawks are celebrating this crap they don't realize or worse they wont admit how this rules could backfire. The goverment limiting jobs opportunities make the U.S. less attractive to international talent. A Chinese resident or citizen can still work anywhere in the world including in the U.S. while "U.S Person" is limited by the goverment.
Both the FDPR and the U.S. person rule could limit the jobs opportunities of Americans all over the world. A company like ASML could avoid hiring Americans in the part of their business related to China while at the same time hiring Chinese to work in US based projects due the fact that the Chinese goverment has not enable the same rules.
 

PopularScience

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I think it's pretty clear from what I've heard so far that there aren't that many Americans working in China. The green card holders can probably be persuaded to give up their green card for another country's PR if the pay is good enough. At the end of the day, there are limited number of jobs, people will go where the money is. There is the short term inconvenience of them not being able to work in China while they get their citizenship/PR status sorted out. There are a couple of chip design startups who probably will suffer big losses, but that really won't change the course for any of the larger/more mature firms that China actually depends on. Of course, FT will post the most alarmist pieces it can find. That's what click-baiting is all about. You don't get high view counts by saying that all will be good with China.

Anyhow, on the EDA from, a short analysis here on Empyrean Technology acquiring XinDa to have a wider portfolio. Looks like they already serve SMIC and Hisilicon. I think it's just a matter of time before the domestic EDAs are up to 5 nm on everything. Would love to see them work with Samsung or TSMC.
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Alright, China's first ETF of local and SK chipmakers. Not sure if there is any significance with this.
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YMTC has far more Koreans than Americans.
 

tphuang

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an article on Korea about Samsung and SK Hynix investment in China and the difficulties facing them with respect to continued operations in China and losing ability to buy American equipments.
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It's hard for me to see these companies downgrade and lose the China market. As such, I would imagine they will be really incentivized and have the resources to de-americanize their production line. This should be very helpful for Chinese players.

In general, 1/3 of SK's exports are to China. As such, Samsung may be as incentivized as TSMC to get off the American supply chain.
 

tokenanalyst

Brigadier
Registered Member
an article on Korea about Samsung and SK Hynix investment in China and the difficulties facing them with respect to continued operations in China and losing ability to buy American equipments.
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It's hard for me to see these companies downgrade and lose the China market. As such, I would imagine they will be really incentivized and have the resources to de-americanize their production line. This should be very helpful for Chinese players.

In general, 1/3 of SK's exports are to China. As such, Samsung may be as incentivized as TSMC to get off the American supply chain.
Interesting.
-It could prompt Korea to invest more in their own semiconductor equipment industry.
-It could prompt Korean companies to buy and validate even more Chinese made semiconductor equipment.

Nobody seems to be liking this, we could see a semiconductor tooling investment frenzy in Asia, with the highest activity in China for obvious reasons, Korean, Japan and even in Taiwan. As they scramble to find workarounds.
 

xypher

Senior Member
Registered Member
Interesting.
-It could prompt Korea to invest more in their own semiconductor equipment industry.
-It could prompt Korean companies to buy and validate even more Chinese made semiconductor equipment.

Nobody seems to be liking this, we could see a semiconductor tooling investment frenzy in Asia, with the highest activity in China for obvious reasons, Korean, Japan and even in Taiwan. As they scramble to find workarounds.
Yeah, American temper tantrums are speeding up the tech decoupling... of the world from the US.
 

weig2000

Captain
Not ideal
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The entire western MSM has become a huge propaganda machine against China in this US-China rivalry. Their reporting about China have almost always come with a heavy dose of projection, delusion or simply distortion, these include both FT and Bloomberg. I used to favor slightly FT over WSJ because its European/UK origin and angle, but not anymore. You can tell this not only from their reporting, but also from their readers' comments, which can serve as a window to look into the prevailing mood of these supposedly elites. That being said, they're still useful channels to understand the US/Western side of thinking and information. It's just that they're pretty clueless when it comes to the Chinese side.

As far as the US citizens or green card holders working in Chinese tech firms, let me just say that it'll take a while for the dust to settle and don't get misled by the initial reactions or precautionary actions. For the slightly longer term impact of these "US persons" ban, we can examine them in two primary dimensions: one is the stage and size of the company, the other is the importance and position of the "US persons" within the company.

As some members have already commented, in a big, more established and mature company such as YMTC, any individual employee, even at executive rank or critical technical position, ultimately has a rather limited impact. The FT report tries hard to portrait the situation as if Chinese tech companies are mostly critically staffed with "US persons." That is decidedly not the case, at least when it comes to companies like YMTC. In general, chip design companies or EDA companies turn to have more US-originated persons (either seas turtles or passport/green card holders), but fabs are more likely to have more Taiwanese or South Korean employees than "US persons." This was most likely to be the case when the companies just started, but would be diluted over time. So for YMTC, SMIC, or CXMT, the impact would be very manageable, particularly over longer term.

For tech startups, which include some chip design firms, EDA software companies and a few semiconductor equipment firms, the impact would be appreciably larger, due to the stage and size of the companies. Here, the second dimension kicks in, that is, the said "US persons'" role and position within the company. Firstly, chip design currently is not a bottleneck to the growth of Chinese semiconductor industry. China has very good, even world-class, indigenous chip design companies such as HiSilicon and ZTE's design subsidiary. EDA companies may be affected very differently, with the more established domestic ones minimally while the recent startups potentially affected to various degrees. There are a few equipment firms whose founders are US passport holders (I won't name names, but it's not hard to find out), but they have been established in China for quite some time now (>10 years) and have been quite successful. It's not difficult to imagine what choice they would make when being confronted with one.

In the end, it's a self-selection process: the more successful the companies are, the more critical you're to the companies and therefore the more stake you have in the companies, the less likely you would abandon it and the more likely both the company and you would eventually find a way out of this. It's people who are in the middle that would face a more difficult choice. But then again, it won't be a critical blow if they choose to leave.

Overall, when the dust settles and all is said and done, this "US persons" ban won't cripple the development and growth of Chinese semiconductor industry beyond the short-term. It just can't.
 
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