Chinese semiconductor industry

tphuang said:

Thanks a lot for this. And to @PopularScience
Here is the part that really got to me looking at that chart.

SMIB (I assume that's SMIC Beijing) had revenue of 1.284 billion
SMNC had revenue of 970 million.

Going by this document, the maximum capacity of SMIB is 60k wpm and of SMNC is 100k wpm.

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Even if we assume they reached the 60k wpm and even exceeded a little bit for first half of the year, that would still probably only mean 400k 12-inch wafers for SMIB and probably 450k 12-inch wafers for SMNC.

That would mean $3200 per wafer at SMIB and $2150 per wafer at SMNC.

SMNC makes sense based on PopularScience's chart, since they are probably producing a healthy mix of 28, 40, 55 and 90 nm wafers (with more focus on 40/55/90 nm process).

SMIB makes less sense to me, because that is right in between 28 and 20 nm process. I thought they are doing mostly 55/65 nm wafers. Is it possible that they are also doing some 14 nm process?

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Maybe the chart is wrong. SMIB is an old fab for 55/56nm.

PopularScience said:

Maybe the chart is wrong. SMIB is an old fab for 55/56nm.

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It's possible that the type of wafers that SMIB is producing right now was in demand in H1, so they can fetch higher prices.

A couple of more things. I think it's the American companies themselves that are probably most aware of their Chinese competitors. And you can see how desperate they are to get around these sanctions. For example, here is an Caixin article where Nvidia founder basically says they are going to try to sell a version of H100 that will be sanction proof. I find that a rather dubious claim and also don't think Chinese data centers will have trust toward this. They should steam ahead with transitioning to domestic players. Nvidia really does not want any competition for its products You can be that this applies to Qualcomm, Intel and AMAT also.

Just browsing through Biren website and they listed this article on how AI helps with medical imaging. The important part here is that AI has implications across many industries in developing new technology. That's why people like Eric Schmidt is so obsessed about this.

I think Chinese gov't can probably label all American semiconductor imports as unreliable and recommend Chinese companies to avoid them when possible. That kind of order will affect companies like TI and Analog Devices. But in reality, what will kill them is probably all the mature node capacity that is coming online in China in the next 3 to 4 years

AMEC stock down today 19.4%, NAURA 10%, SMIC 4%, Kingsemi down 16.9%, GigaDevice down 8.8% etc. Is it time to buy? Shouldn't Chinese semiconductor equipment makers become more valuable now that they'll have the whole market to themselves?

Can US citizens can still work in hongkong? According to the latest ban

horse said:

Agree and disagree. The disagree is far more stronger than the agree part for me. I explain why.

The article was quite good, in the way they tried to explain things. What AI equipment or chips were needed. What the motivations were. What kind of trends are developing in the industry.

That is quite good, because he tries to explain.

To people who do not follow tech on a regular basis, then this article should be considered good.

I don't this article because it is atypical American echo chamber.

echo chamber ... echo chamber ...

So I would think a lot of people in this thread, would say the article makes a few points, but still a bad article.

For example, these two paragraphs were written.




At least they kind of know what is going on.

But ... like ... big hairy deal. Everyone kind of knows this.

The article says there is a convergence of AI and HPC. Meaning artificial intelligence is using high performance computing.

Like duh! What else will AI need? But faster and better machines?

(For faster and better machines, we need faster chips! And better and innovative ways of linking them to work together, which China has demonstrated considerable skill in doing that).

In the end, I did not like this article, although it has merit, I did not like it because that is what people discuss everyday here in this thread, and in more detail.

In the end, the article did not offer anything new either.

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Agree they are too much focused on western high high end components.

The fastest super computer in 2020 and 2021 was the Japanese one using their own fujitse a64fx made on 7nm. As far as I know the Japanese super computer doesn't use any western cpu and gpu.
This super computer got "beaten" by china's own secret super computer.

Just thinking out loud too me the only thing western component cpu and gpu allow a better compute per watt and square meter ratio on paper at least.

Minm said:

AMEC stock down today 19.4%, NAURA 10%, SMIC 4%, Kingsemi down 16.9%, GigaDevice down 8.8% etc. Is it time to buy? Shouldn't Chinese semiconductor equipment makers become more valuable now that they'll have the whole market to themselves?

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I would think the latest US action also makes it impossible for US investors to invest in these companies. Meaning funds that hold these stocks would have to sell or face US bans.

Minm said:

AMEC stock down today 19.4%, NAURA 10%, SMIC 4%, Kingsemi down 16.9%, GigaDevice down 8.8% etc. Is it time to buy? Shouldn't Chinese semiconductor equipment makers become more valuable now that they'll have the whole market to themselves?

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this is how stock market works. after sanctions this trend is normal. all these firms will bounce back with a bang in coming days.

Blitzo said:

Posting those articles is not an instant bannable offense.

I am well aware of the links he has posted in this thread, and I have yet to take action because I do not think it yet warrants it.

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But this does, doesn't it?
Is it not true regarding the IP match? I think having multiple accounts is an instant permanent ban here, no?

So does anyone know why China hasn't also been stockpiling Canon/Nikon DUVs? Those should have no American content in them whatsoever.

Japan dominates the EUV infrastructure