Chinese semiconductor industry

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Fedupwithlies

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The US ban on the AI chip, or that Graphics Processing Unit, the GPU, that already was a rather flaky move.

I don't know too much about a GPU today, but back in the old days when they first came out, the whole thing was big. It fit into one of the slots on the motherboard inside the personal computer. The extra chip was needed, the GPU, so the load would lessen on the CPU, so people could play their games.

The same principle here with the AI. The computer with the CPU doing some AI calculation, they can stick in a GPU into the machine to make it go faster.

But there is a salient point I believe. That GPU is an accessory, even though it is a very important accessory. That is why it is called a Graphics Processing Unit and not Central Processing Unit.

The design of the GPU has gotten better over time, but that does not mean China cannot do it. China is a world leader in chip design. So design is not a problem for China. The problem is the hardware to manufacture the chip, blah blah blah.

That was why the GPU ban was odd. What difference will it make? The biggest loser is AMD and Nvidia. They probably going to be the only loser in the long run.


That is why this talk of another ban on server chips for data centers and chips for supercomputing, is even more weird.

If they want to ban the sale of server chips and supercomputing chips to China, that is like saying the Americans do not want to sell any chips to China. This is a total desperation move.

So ... what exactly is a server? If you are using a PC, and get another PC, and use them together, then you got a server configuration going already, install some server software and you're admin!

So ... what exactly is a supercomputer? Seems like that is a computer will a lot of chips inside it! Almost like a server configuration!

Okay, to be fair, server chips are designed to be optimized for those tasks required more of servers, whatever that is. But we can say that about all chips in general. Such as RF chips (radio frequency), or power chips, etc.

This ban on server chips and supercomputing chips is more silly that the ban on the GPU.

The former, could probably be purchased off the shelf. The latter, just design your own.


The only way a chip ban can work against China, is for the Americans to forbid anyone from selling any chip to China.

The irony is that we are moving in that direction because the Chinese cannot fool around with unreliable suppliers, and they got to think for themselves. In the meantime, they still willing to do business, until the day they can cut off the Americans permanently from the China market.

:D

That is why this chip war stuck me as being very odd.

Here we have China working on cutting off the Americans.

In the meantime while they pursue their work in the background, the stop gap measure is to continuing buying chips from the Americans.

And for the most part, the Americans are perfectly fine with that.

Until the day they aren't.

The problem is that for the Americans, is that when that day comes that they realize they are not fine with that anymore, it is already too late.

But they go ahead with the ban anyways, like a total retard. Haha!

If we understand the technology, and what is happening, then this is comedy. It is a total joke.

:)
The US has been doing a lot of very strange things lately that do not seem to make sense in the long term. And in the short term it doesn't seem to be having the effect it claims.
 

tphuang

Lieutenant General
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Can't be aggressive if you don't actually possess an advantage. Their only hope is that down the road for non-EUV based tech they can achieve independence and then at that point feel free sanction away and make sure your product in that space is priced at break-even to put US/JP/TW biz on the backfoot...
What do you mean they don't possess an advantage? They are probably now the leading neon producer in the world as well as other noble gas. They are largest silicon producer in the world. There are probably a lot more in the semiconductor supply chain that depends on China. The Koreans are extremely dependent on the Chinese supply chain for their semiconductors.

Now, I don't think they should try to sanction any country, because that's bad for their own industries. However, they can make the companies that do participate in sanctions pay. If you cannot sell me your best stuff, then you can't sell to me. That's a pretty fair law to have. Intel/Nvidia/AMD/Qualcomm without 30% of their revenue in the middle of a major recession is a disaster.

I'm not sure what your second point is? SMIC's roadmap (that was posted earlier this thread) had them starting production of 3 nm node using domestic EUV as early as 2025. While that maybe overly optimistic, they are pretty far along in this entire process.

This is great for SMIC and HLMC. any domestic firms that have been relying on TSMC/Samsung for those advanced chip node should know that the next step in the sanction will be to prevent TSMC/Samsung from making chips for Chinese chip designers. As such, they will be more incentivized than ever to work with domestic chip makers for their new chips.
 

tokenanalyst

Brigadier
Registered Member
You can stop or you can double down. It looks like the US government is always going to double down. Very predictable.
This are the moderates, most of things announced to be banned is "high end" stuff, "equipment for below 10nm" whatever that means, EDA for niche processes like GAAFET and materials that are not even commercialized yet. In my personal opinion feels more like fearmongering that is just accelerating China localization craze. The real challenge for China will be when the lunatics take over the asylum again if the democrats get obliterated by Trump in 2024. Chinese companies and research institutes shouldn't be distracted by noise and not rest in their laurels, they should accelerate the development, localization and the commercialization of equipment, parts, subsystems, materials and software by whatever means necessary, 24/7. Their survival depends on their work.
 

horse

Colonel
Registered Member
I will say one thing about Chinese reaction to these sanctions. They have been quite passive and whiny about these sanctions. They probably should be trying to take advantage of them. A good thing to do is to make national security laws that prevent sales of any firms to China that participates in these sanctions. Any firms that cannot sell their best stuff to China should be able to sell anything to China. You can make exceptions on that, but there is no reason for China to buy older generation AMD or Intel chips. The sooner these companies can downsize in China and for those talents to join Chinese competitors, the better it would be for China.

I would say, just let it go.

No need to do too much about it.

5G.
Data centers.
Supercomputer.
GPU.

Those four items and its related tech, have been subjected to bans from the American government applied on to Chinese entities.

China is way far ahead of the Americans in 5G.
China has world leading data center vendors in terms of performance.
China has faster supercomputers than America, and more of them too.
China has comparable GPU to the best the Americans can, and according to some specs, the Chinese have a superior product.

Yet, in all those above categories, the Americans are instituting bans, in order to get ahead of the Chinese again.

Say what?!

I don't think the world works that way. If someone is already ahead of ourselves, how can we ban them back to our level?

That is exactly what the Americans are trying to do. Ban the leader from being the leader.

:D

Guess that is the reason for the chip war, and this IC thread. There is no other card to play for the Americans.

:p:D
 

Minm

Junior Member
Registered Member
What do you mean they don't possess an advantage? They are probably now the leading neon producer in the world as well as other noble gas. They are largest silicon producer in the world. There are probably a lot more in the semiconductor supply chain that depends on China. The Koreans are extremely dependent on the Chinese supply chain for their semiconductors.

Now, I don't think they should try to sanction any country, because that's bad for their own industries. However, they can make the companies that do participate in sanctions pay. If you cannot sell me your best stuff, then you can't sell to me. That's a pretty fair law to have. Intel/Nvidia/AMD/Qualcomm without 30% of their revenue in the middle of a major recession is a disaster.

I'm not sure what your second point is? SMIC's roadmap (that was posted earlier this thread) had them starting production of 3 nm node using domestic EUV as early as 2025. While that maybe overly optimistic, they are pretty far along in this entire process.

This is great for SMIC and HLMC. any domestic firms that have been relying on TSMC/Samsung for those advanced chip node should know that the next step in the sanction will be to prevent TSMC/Samsung from making chips for Chinese chip designers. As such, they will be more incentivized than ever to work with domestic chip makers for their new chips.
Unlike the Americans or Europeans, China can survive losing face and doesn't need to engage in acts of self harm just to avoid feeling humiliated. An escalation of the chip war would be bad for China if all DUV sales to China were banned. It's better to just let the US continue cutting off its own access to the largest market in the world and they even celebrate having damaged themselves
 

paiemon

Junior Member
Registered Member
Foreign direct product rule sanctions on supercomputing & data center. Essentially the US is starting the process of Huawei’ing the country
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Foreign direct product rule already existed on those items to China. It's an existing export control regulation and is superseded by the “de minimis” rule, 25% controlled U.S. origin content. Even if those items contained U.S.-origin content or were produced using U.S. technology, software, or equipment, such foreign produced items are not “subject to the export controls” so long as the underlying U.S. technology and foreign-produced item fell outside of the Direct Product rule as described above and fell below that threshold. Normally, the rare times that that the “de minimis” rule gets superseded is when the item is on special lists like for example military items or if the end destination is on an entity list like Huawei.

That is why Intel for example can make HPC or data center chips in say Israel, with designs that partially source from the US and US origin equipment and sell them to China no problem. I doubt they will amend the “de minimis” rule because that would remove alot of wiggle room which will send a bad message to industry. The new rules would have to supersede the existing foreign direct product rules and only apply to those firms. This is essentially a nuclear option and what happened to Huawei. However, it remains to be seen if they would be willing to use it again, since like I said it sends a bad message to industry and imho will only motivate companies with global aspirations (if they aren't already) to move key operations outside of US jurisdiction.

Anyways, it remains to be seen how this will actually be implemented so no point in blowing up the forums with speculation. I am sure the multinationals have been expecting potential changes and China's firms probably have stockpiles they can draw on for operations even if the US put out an "interim rule" tomorrow. The bottom line is that a non-US technology stack is coming closer and closer to fruition and eventually, the only losers will be American workers (except for maybe the ones dealing with government regulations lol) as their employers adjust to preserving their profits.
 

Appix

Senior Member
Registered Member

U.S. Said to Plan New Limits on China’s A.I. and Supercomputing Firms​

The new rules could be the most sweeping action taken yet by the Biden administration to thwart China’s access to American technology that powers data centers and supercomputers.

The Biden administration is expected to announce new measures to restrict Chinese companies from getting access to technologies that enable high-performance computing, according to several people familiar with the matter, the latest in a series of moves aimed at hobbling Beijing’s ambitions to craft next-generation weapons and automate large-scale surveillance systems.

The measures, which could be announced as soon as this week, would be some of the most significant steps taken by the Biden administration to cut off China’s access to advanced semiconductor technology. They would build on a
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to the Chinese telecom giant Huawei by prohibiting companies around the world from sending it products made with the use of American technology, machinery or software.

A number of Chinese firms, government research labs and other entities are expected to face restrictions similar to Huawei, according to two people with knowledge of the plans. In effect, any firm that uses American-made technologies would be blocked from selling to the Chinese entities that are targeted by the administration. It’s not yet clear which Chinese firms and labs would be affected.

The broad expansion of what is known as the foreign direct product rule is just one part of Washington’s planned restrictions. The administration is also expected to try to control the sale of cutting-edge U.S.-made tools to China’s domestic semiconductor industry.

Washington also plans to limit U.S.-made microchips from being sold to China’s most powerful supercomputing and data center projects, the people said. That limitation could end up inhibiting the ability of major academic institutions and internet firms like Alibaba and Tencent from getting the parts they need to build leading data centers and supercomputers.

Over time, as supercomputer performance levels rise, the cap could seriously hinder China’s ability to develop the powerful number-crunching technology that forms the building block of innovations across an array of fields, including the biosciences, artificial intelligence and missile engineering. Curbs on chips and chip-making tools were
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.

The Biden administration has also been readying an executive order that would allow the government to scrutinize the investments that U.S. companies made abroad for national security risks, and considering other measures that could apply to the Chinese memory chip maker Yangtze Memory Technologies Company, or YMTC, several people familiar with the discussions said.

Orville Schell, a longtime China scholar at the Asia Society, said the American government was moving to separate American and Chinese supply chains on semiconductors and semiconductor technology, given their importance not just for national economies but also weapons systems and other military applications.

In the last one to two months, U.S. officials have become increasingly concerned with Chinese companies that make midrange semiconductors, not just the smallest, most cutting-edge technology, Mr. Schell said. That’s because those older products are still critical components for weapons, and officials do not want Chinese chip makers to use technology from the United States or partner nations to produce those chips. And they do not want the Chinese companies to become global suppliers.

“That’s quite a remarkable expansion of our concerns,” he said, adding that YMTC was a prime example of this kind of company.

The White House declined to comment on the planned restrictions. A spokesperson for the Bureau of Industry and Security at the Commerce Department, which has authority over the types of technology that companies can export out of the United States, said they could not confirm anything at this point.

If enacted, the measures will be the strongest push to date by the United States to hit at China’s flourishing supercomputer and data center market. Many Chinese universities, state-run companies and internet firms run supercomputers that have a range of abilities. Plenty are used for important, if prosaic, tasks like analyzing road traffic, managing social networks or predicting weather, but analysts and researchers have shown how others are used for more malign purposes.

China
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to power invasive surveillance systems that target ethnic minorities. Others have been used by Beijing to model nuclear blasts and design next-generation weapons that could evade American defenses.

For instance, in the western Chinese region of Xinjiang, where hundreds of thousands of minority Uyghurs have been interned and surveilled, a supercomputer built
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has been used to process footage collected from ubiquitous video cameras in the area. Both Intel and Nvidia have said they were unaware of what they called misuse of their technology.

The U.S. government has sought to curb the flow of technology to projects like these in recent years, but those efforts have been frustrated by the wide availability of powerful microchips.

Many such products that are sold to China are manufactured outside the United States, meaning the U.S. government’s traditional methods of regulation, which focus on products exported from the United States, don’t apply. So officials in the Trump and Biden administrations have turned to leveraging the foreign direct product rule, a sweeping regulation that prevents products made anywhere in the world with the help of U.S. technology, machinery or software from being sold to China. Even semiconductors manufactured in other countries are often made with the use of U.S. equipment and software.

The Biden administration has faced some criticism that it has moved slowly to curb China’s access to cutting-edge U.S. technology. For many administration officials, China’s recent progress in
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in semiconductor manufacturing underscored the urgent need for more expansive regulation in the industry, people familiar with the discussions said.

The export controls are part of a bigger strategy from the Biden administration to starve China of key technologies while
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. The measures come as Beijing
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, which produces almost all of the world’s advanced semiconductors.

In remarks at the White House last month, Jake Sullivan, the national security adviser,
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that the U.S. government had previously tried to stay a few generations ahead of competitors in certain key technologies, but that the approach was no longer tough enough.

“Given the foundational nature of certain technologies, such as advanced logic and memory chips, we must maintain as large of a lead as possible,” he said.

The Biden administration has cited its
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as a powerful tool to punish Russia for its invasion of Ukraine, saying it will cripple Russia’s defense, technology, energy and other critical sectors in the long term. American officials say they can apply the same tool to other rival nations, notably China, to address national security challenges. The officials say the Trump administration’s use of export controls aimed at hobbling Huawei served as a model for how they formulated the controls on Russian companies.

Last month, the Biden administration
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on the sale of some sophisticated computer chips to China and Russia. Those limits focused on high-end models of chips known as graphic processing units sold by Silicon Valley companies like Nvidia and Advanced Micro Devices. The products, originally made to render images in video games, have become critical for large computers that are used to train artificial intelligence algorithms.

Paul Triolo, senior vice president for China at Albright Stonebridge Group, a strategy firm, said that the move was “probably the strongest sort of regulatory and export control statement that the U.S. government has made with respect to China’s access to U.S. technology,” and that it was coming at a sensitive time for the Chinese leadership, ahead of a meeting of the 20th congress of the Communist Party, which will begin Oct. 16.

“The administration,” he said, “is putting its foot down here.”

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ansy1968

Brigadier
Registered Member
I will say one thing about Chinese reaction to these sanctions. They have been quite passive and whiny about these sanctions. They probably should be trying to take advantage of them. A good thing to do is to make national security laws that prevent sales of any firms to China that participates in these sanctions. Any firms that cannot sell their best stuff to China should be able to sell anything to China. You can make exceptions on that, but there is no reason for China to buy older generation AMD or Intel chips. The sooner these companies can downsize in China and for those talents to join Chinese competitors, the better it would be for China.
Sir they're waiting for those US FABS to be finished as well as their owned expansion and then implement a total ban on American made Chips. Just look at the timeline, both expansion plan is due to finished in 2024 and operate in 2025. In these way the CCP can leverage both against the US...lol Must think and acted rationally to Woke up the Americans. :p
 
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