Chinese semiconductor industry

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tphuang

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Article for people that would want to look at some specific benchmarks for the phytium D2000. The reviewer is a bit too critical though and might have a "bug" in his head when he writes:

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"In the short term, I don’t think D2000 helps China. Its performance is extremely uncompetitive even against desktop chips from a decade ago, to the point that China would be better off dumpster diving for old Intel and AMD chips. Personally I’d hate to be stuck using a D2000 even for everyday web browsing, let alone more demanding use cases like photo and video editing. Grabbing old desktop chips off the used market would cost less while providing a more usable computing experience, and give China better resistance against possible sanctions."


Using a older processor for comparison can help gauge how far development is but it also help project "china backwards" type of racial bias. If one already knows that these chips are low performing, it would be also beneficial to be comparing it against more recent lowly celeron n5095 , i3u , or mediatek p60... processors that you would find in new computers and find still usable for dad 2 day tasks.

It's kind of weird to me that Phytium got mentioned in there since they are already on entity list and have been able to keep producing S2500 and D2000 chips. In fact, their sales have never been better since the sanctions, lol.

Joke is on the guy replying on that tweet that said "no product releases". Lol, like Phytium is going to be loud about product release given the current environment.

As for D2000, it's not great, but it's fully domestic. With Kylin OS, it meets the requirement of fully domestic desktop. They are getting a lot of orders. D3000 should be coming soon and it will be more performant.

Foreign direct product rule sanctions on supercomputing & data center. Essentially the US is starting the process of Huawei’ing the country
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Just as one would expect, sanctions on data center and supercomputing was going to come after the AI chips. This is probably a short term inconvenience, but all the big tech companies in China have their own server chips. Phytium S2500 is quite competitive actually and is getting wider adoption.

you can look up S2500 in this benchmarking list.
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I would be curious to see if this ban Alibaba and Huawei from putting AMD/Intel server chips for their cloud services. That would actually be a real annoyance for a coupe of years. But after that, AMD/Intel can say goodbye to any CPU sales in China, lol

Depending on how encompassing the sanctions are, it could be anywhere from barely meaningful to short/medium term inconvenience.
 

Pkp88

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It's kind of weird to me that Phytium got mentioned in there since they are already on entity list and have been able to keep producing S2500 and D2000 chips. In fact, their sales have never been better since the sanctions, lol.

Joke is on the guy replying on that tweet that said "no product releases". Lol, like Phytium is going to be loud about product release given the current environment.

As for D2000, it's not great, but it's fully domestic. With Kylin OS, it meets the requirement of fully domestic desktop. They are getting a lot of orders. D3000 should be coming soon and it will be more performant.


Just as one would expect, sanctions on data center and supercomputing was going to come after the AI chips. This is probably a short term inconvenience, but all the big tech companies in China have their own server chips. Phytium S2500 is quite competitive actually and is getting wider adoption.

you can look up S2500 in this benchmarking list.
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I would be curious to see if this ban Alibaba and Huawei from putting AMD/Intel server chips for their cloud services. That would actually be a real annoyance for a coupe of years. But after that, AMD/Intel can say goodbye to any CPU sales in China, lol

Depending on how encompassing the sanctions are, it could be anywhere from barely meaningful to short/medium term inconvenience.
If they can’t pull off a complete competitive DUV based process with this incentive at play … they’re running out of time at this point.
 

tphuang

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If they can’t pull off a complete competitive DUV based process with this incentive at play … they’re running out of time at this point.
did you miss the news that they've developed 28 nm lithography machine?

Also a ban on server chips doesn't directly link to DUVs. SMIC likely already has all the ASML Arfi scanners it needs for all domestic server CPU and GPU production. That's if we assume TSMC will stop producing chips for companies like Alibaba. Given the current drop in demand, I doubt TSMC is in a position to turn down orders.
 

Pkp88

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did you miss the news that they've developed 28 nm lithography machine?

Also a ban on server chips doesn't directly link to DUVs. SMIC likely already has all the ASML Arfi scanners it needs for all domestic server CPU and GPU production. That's if we assume TSMC will stop producing chips for companies like Alibaba. Given the current drop in demand, I doubt TSMC is in a position to turn down orders.
At this point have to assume the worst eventually. At some point US is likely to even sanction BATs directly (datacenter sanctions essentially lower their competition profile globally). From a demand standpoint SMIC has enough equipment to supply Chinese consumer needs? What about equipment supply chain (subject to US sanctions)? An IC process immune to US sanctions should be more than just a stop-gap process it needs to be holistic and encompass EDA / inputs and actual equipment.
 

tphuang

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At this point have to assume the worst eventually. At some point US is likely to even sanction BATs directly (datacenter sanctions essentially lower their competition profile globally). From a demand standpoint SMIC has enough equipment to supply Chinese consumer needs? What about equipment supply chain (subject to US sanctions)? An IC process immune to US sanctions should be more than just a stop-gap process it needs to be holistic and encompass EDA / inputs and actual equipment.

So there are quite a few points you asked about here. I don't claim to know much of anything thing, so take this with a grain of salt. First, there is the question of how much advanced chips SMIC can produce. Up to this point, I would say it's reasonable that they will be able to take delivery of the latest DUVi equipment from ASML until at least the end of the year. Based on that, I would say they will have enough equipment for at least 50k wpm of advanced node production N+1/N+2. Given that ASML continues to expand in China, I think it's likely that they believe they can keep selling DUVi to China. In all likelihood, SMIC will be able to take delivery of enough ASML DUVi for the full 70k wpm of advanced node production (which should take no more than middle of next year to deliver). At the same time, YMTC, HLMC and CXMT are also likely to receive all the DUVi they need for their immediate expansion plans. Beyond that, I would have to assume that domestic DUVi can take over.

With 50k wpm of N+1/N+2 production. Assume 500 mm^2 die for server chips and 1000 mm^2 for advanced AI GPUs, each 12 inch wafer can hold maybe 150 server chip and 70 to 75 AI chips. If we go with 80% yield on the smaller chip and 70% yield on the larger chip, then each wafer can produce 120 good server chip and 50 good AI chip.

So, they said that there is demand for 50 million domestic computers. I'm assuming the demand for server CPU is a fraction of that. Let's say 5 million a year + 500k a year of AI GPUs. They need 41667 wafers for server chips and 10000 wafers for GPUs. As you can see, 50k wpm of 12-inch wafer production is probably 10 times the capacity they will need for these HPC chips.

70k wpm of N+1/N+2 node is enough for all demand in China outside of high end smartphone CPUs.

As for EDAs, I could be entirely wrong here, but my impression is that they should be able to continue to manufacturing existing chips even if they get cut off there. That will give them time to work with Chinese EDAs for future design. Chinese chip designers have actually designed quite a few industry leading chips there. Even if they go without American EDAs for a couple of years, I think they should be fine.

On the other hand, you might want to think about the impact of Intel/Qualcomm/Nvidia/AMD losing 1/4 to 1/3 of their market in the middle of a recession. That will mean huge downsizing in these firms. And if the domestic players play their cards right, they will be able to recruit those people that these firms will inevitably have to let go. This is a major brain drain from American to Chinese tech firms.
 

tphuang

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I will say one thing about Chinese reaction to these sanctions. They have been quite passive and whiny about these sanctions. They probably should be trying to take advantage of them. A good thing to do is to make national security laws that prevent sales of any firms to China that participates in these sanctions. Any firms that cannot sell their best stuff to China should be able to sell anything to China. You can make exceptions on that, but there is no reason for China to buy older generation AMD or Intel chips. The sooner these companies can downsize in China and for those talents to join Chinese competitors, the better it would be for China.
 

Pkp88

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I will say one thing about Chinese reaction to these sanctions. They have been quite passive and whiny about these sanctions. They probably should be trying to take advantage of them. A good thing to do is to make national security laws that prevent sales of any firms to China that participates in these sanctions. Any firms that cannot sell their best stuff to China should be able to sell anything to China. You can make exceptions on that, but there is no reason for China to buy older generation AMD or Intel chips. The sooner these companies can downsize in China and for those talents to join Chinese competitors, the better it would be for China.
Can't be aggressive if you don't actually possess an advantage. Their only hope is that down the road for non-EUV based tech they can achieve independence and then at that point feel free sanction away and make sure your product in that space is priced at break-even to put US/JP/TW biz on the backfoot...
 

horse

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There have been growing skepticism about whether the US semiconductor bans and sanctions on China will work or even backfire.

For example, this report:

The US ban on the AI chip, or that Graphics Processing Unit, the GPU, that already was a rather flaky move.

I don't know too much about a GPU today, but back in the old days when they first came out, the whole thing was big. It fit into one of the slots on the motherboard inside the personal computer. The extra chip was needed, the GPU, so the load would lessen on the CPU, so people could play their games.

The same principle here with the AI. The computer with the CPU doing some AI calculation, they can stick in a GPU into the machine to make it go faster.

But there is a salient point I believe. That GPU is an accessory, even though it is a very important accessory. That is why it is called a Graphics Processing Unit and not Central Processing Unit.

The design of the GPU has gotten better over time, but that does not mean China cannot do it. China is a world leader in chip design. So design is not a problem for China. The problem is the hardware to manufacture the chip, blah blah blah.

That was why the GPU ban was odd. What difference will it make? The biggest loser is AMD and Nvidia. They probably going to be the only loser in the long run.


That is why this talk of another ban on server chips for data centers and chips for supercomputing, is even more weird.

If they want to ban the sale of server chips and supercomputing chips to China, that is like saying the Americans do not want to sell any chips to China. This is a total desperation move.

So ... what exactly is a server? If you are using a PC, and get another PC, and use them together, then you got a server configuration going already, install some server software and you're admin!

So ... what exactly is a supercomputer? Seems like that is a computer will a lot of chips inside it! Almost like a server configuration!

Okay, to be fair, server chips are designed to be optimized for those tasks required more of servers, whatever that is. But we can say that about all chips in general. Such as RF chips (radio frequency), or power chips, etc.

This ban on server chips and supercomputing chips is more silly that the ban on the GPU.

The former, could probably be purchased off the shelf. The latter, just design your own.


The only way a chip ban can work against China, is for the Americans to forbid anyone from selling any chip to China.

The irony is that we are moving in that direction because the Chinese cannot fool around with unreliable suppliers, and they got to think for themselves. In the meantime, they still willing to do business, until the day they can cut off the Americans permanently from the China market.

:D

That is why this chip war stuck me as being very odd.

Here we have China working on cutting off the Americans.

In the meantime while they pursue their work in the background, the stop gap measure is to continuing buying chips from the Americans.

And for the most part, the Americans are perfectly fine with that.

Until the day they aren't.

The problem is that for the Americans, is that when that day comes that they realize they are not fine with that anymore, it is already too late.

But they go ahead with the ban anyways, like a total retard. Haha!

If we understand the technology, and what is happening, then this is comedy. It is a total joke.

:)
 
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