Chinese semiconductor industry

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daifo

Major
Registered Member
China does not need to ban US chips, just place tariffs on them.

There is no good reason not to place tariffs on anything made by Qualcomm or Apple. I think China should have put tariffs on Qualcomm and Apple products the moment they sanctioned Huawei.

Doesn't make any sense to ban or tarrif until China has respectable performant and reasonable priced chips...
 

Topazchen

Junior Member
Registered Member
We were brainstorming how China should respond once she is sufficiently independent in I say in 5 years and the winning proposal was a troll of some sort.

An unreliable list (there was talk of such 3 years ago) that mirrors the American entity list.

If Nvidia has been banned from supplying GPUs, the Chinese government's unreliable list will specify that any Chinese firm that wants to buy Nvidia GPUs must seek authorization with a presumption of denial.

Then send a note to the Americans and tell them that your unreliable list's primary objective is to enforce their restrictions.
 

ansy1968

Brigadier
Registered Member
We were brainstorming how China should respond once she is sufficiently independent in I say in 5 years and the winning proposal was a troll of some sort.

An unreliable list (there was talk of such 3 years ago) that mirrors the American entity list.

If Nvidia has been banned from supplying GPUs, the Chinese government's unreliable list will specify that any Chinese firm that wants to buy Nvidia GPUs must seek authorization with a presumption of denial.

Then send a note to the Americans and tell them that your unreliable list's primary objective is to enforce their restrictions.
Bro, the American diversity plan is working, they adopted the Asian culture of "Losing Face"...lol they are projecting their problems to others making them look strong and mighty, in 2008 the Chinese come on board and help BUT NOW they giving the US the middle finger and told to buzz off...lol The urged to be notice is very strong among the Collective West, the more you ignored them the more obnoxious them become like a Karens and Kens in the US...lol You just can't win arguing with them, they want the last say and it just a waste of one's valuable time. :p
 

tphuang

Lieutenant General
Staff member
Super Moderator
VIP Professional
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I think we should wait a while and see what the new restrictions will be.

There are things that will slow China down for a couple of years.

if TSMC is prevented from making chips for Chinese chip designer, since they will need to take time to design chips using what SMIC has available. I see this as the least likely. TSMC likely has pretty strong influence over Taiwanese politicians and they are not going to be able to turn down mainland orders when they have EUVs sitting idle.

Stopping ASML from selling DUVi to China starting next year will also likely slow down certain SMIC/YMTC/HLMC/CXMT expansion plans. I tend to think this is possible, but not too likely given the recent ASML expansion plans in China. ASML should have pretty strong influence with Dutch government. Long term, I think having ASML competition in China is a good thing. I think even if Chinese chip makers can buy ASML DUVi (especially the latest NXT 2100i) for another year and half, they will basically suffer no real slowdown in this area.

Restriction of EDA software sales to China. This is most likely happening. It's unclear to me what that will do other than slow down development of certain new chips. I don't think this will stop any existing chip designs or stuff that are close to the market.

Preventing Alibaba/Baidu/Tencent/Inspur/China Mobile/China Telecom from putting American chips in its products. There are different levels of restrictions here too. Do they only stop sales of such CPUs for super computers and facilities. Or do they stop the sales of such chips to cloud service also. The latter would actually hurt the expansion plans for Alibaba and Huawei cloud business. It would also hurt Inspur and Lenovo in building data centers for different businesses. These things would be seen as measures to hobble the Chinese economy and to sink Chinese tech companies (and help American tech companies). In the short term, these things could really hurt Chinese competitiveness in oversea cloud and data center markets. Even in medium term, it would be a problem if Alibaba for example cannot offer intel CPUs in its cloud service. So depending on what this put through, this could be quite a nuisance for Chinese tech firm.

The best case scenario here is if Alibaba and Baidu get banned from offering certain high end server CPUs from Intel and AMD in their domestic data centers. In this case, the sanctions would barely hurt their operations, but would give them enough of a scare to push fully domestic server options. I think this scenario is actually quite plausible.

Anyways, did some math on what I think 70k wpm of SMIC wafers could output -> let's say 840k 12-inch wafers per year

assuming 50 GPGPUs per wafer (good for AI servers, high computation stuff)
120 high power chips for server/AI usage per wafer (good for super computers, cloud services, data centers and such)
120 high power auto chip on N+2 node per wafer (for something like Journey 6)
450 CPUs for desktop computers per wafer
450 GPUs for desktop computer per wafer
700 CPUs for smartphones per wafer.

500k GPGPUs -> 10k wafers
5 million server/AI (HPC) chips -> 42k wafers
10 million auto chips (5 million high end cars and 2 chips per car) -> 84k wafers
45 million CPUs for desktops -> 100k wafers
45 million GPUs for desktops -> 100k wafers
350 million CPUs for smartphones ->457k wafers

What I'm trying to say is that 70k wpm for N+1 (8 nm??) and N+2 (5nm??) is a lot of capacity for advanced nodes. If they can get 70k wpm by 2025 (let's say 70% of that is N+2 and 30% is N+1), that's almost enough to serve all of the high end chips + smartphones and desktops. SMIC is probably only a year away from getting all the equipment it needs for this type of expansion. To me, the biggest challenge is for the Chinese chip designers to shift from TSMC/Samsung to SMIC/Huahong and for HPC users to work with chip designers to install/utilize them in their data centers.
 

proelite

Junior Member
The US ban on the AI chip, or that Graphics Processing Unit, the GPU, that already was a rather flaky move.

I don't know too much about a GPU today, but back in the old days when they first came out, the whole thing was big. It fit into one of the slots on the motherboard inside the personal computer. The extra chip was needed, the GPU, so the load would lessen on the CPU, so people could play their games.

The same principle here with the AI. The computer with the CPU doing some AI calculation, they can stick in a GPU into the machine to make it go faster.

But there is a salient point I believe. That GPU is an accessory, even though it is a very important accessory. That is why it is called a Graphics Processing Unit and not Central Processing Unit.

The design of the GPU has gotten better over time, but that does not mean China cannot do it. China is a world leader in chip design. So design is not a problem for China. The problem is the hardware to manufacture the chip, blah blah blah.

That was why the GPU ban was odd. What difference will it make? The biggest loser is AMD and Nvidia. They probably going to be the only loser in the long run.


That is why this talk of another ban on server chips for data centers and chips for supercomputing, is even more weird.

If they want to ban the sale of server chips and supercomputing chips to China, that is like saying the Americans do not want to sell any chips to China. This is a total desperation move.

So ... what exactly is a server? If you are using a PC, and get another PC, and use them together, then you got a server configuration going already, install some server software and you're admin!

So ... what exactly is a supercomputer? Seems like that is a computer will a lot of chips inside it! Almost like a server configuration!

Okay, to be fair, server chips are designed to be optimized for those tasks required more of servers, whatever that is. But we can say that about all chips in general. Such as RF chips (radio frequency), or power chips, etc.

This ban on server chips and supercomputing chips is more silly that the ban on the GPU.

The former, could probably be purchased off the shelf. The latter, just design your own.


The only way a chip ban can work against China, is for the Americans to forbid anyone from selling any chip to China.

The irony is that we are moving in that direction because the Chinese cannot fool around with unreliable suppliers, and they got to think for themselves. In the meantime, they still willing to do business, until the day they can cut off the Americans permanently from the China market.

:D

That is why this chip war stuck me as being very odd.

Here we have China working on cutting off the Americans.

In the meantime while they pursue their work in the background, the stop gap measure is to continuing buying chips from the Americans.

And for the most part, the Americans are perfectly fine with that.

Until the day they aren't.

The problem is that for the Americans, is that when that day comes that they realize they are not fine with that anymore, it is already too late.

But they go ahead with the ban anyways, like a total retard. Haha!

If we understand the technology, and what is happening, then this is comedy. It is a total joke.

:)

What's stopping Chinese companies from buying a bunch of GPUs off eBay. Pricier?
 

phrozenflame

Junior Member
Registered Member
I would say, just let it go.

No need to do too much about it.

5G.
Data centers.
Supercomputer.
GPU.

Those four items and its related tech, have been subjected to bans from the American government applied on to Chinese entities.

China is way far ahead of the Americans in 5G.
China has world leading data center vendors in terms of performance.
China has faster supercomputers than America, and more of them too.
China has comparable GPU to the best the Americans can, and according to some specs, the Chinese have a superior product.

Yet, in all those above categories, the Americans are instituting bans, in order to get ahead of the Chinese again.

Say what?!

I don't think the world works that way. If someone is already ahead of ourselves, how can we ban them back to our level?

That is exactly what the Americans are trying to do. Ban the leader from being the leader.

:D

Guess that is the reason for the chip war, and this IC thread. There is no other card to play for the Americans.

:p:D

I would say, just let it go.

No need to do too much about it.

5G.
Data centers.
Supercomputer.
GPU.

Those four items and its related tech, have been subjected to bans from the American government applied on to Chinese entities.

China is way far ahead of the Americans in 5G.
China has world leading data center vendors in terms of performance.
China has faster supercomputers than America, and more of them too.
China has comparable GPU to the best the Americans can, and according to some specs, the Chinese have a superior product.

Yet, in all those above categories, the Americans are instituting bans, in order to get ahead of the Chinese again.

Say what?!

I don't think the world works that way. If someone is already ahead of ourselves, how can we ban them back to our level?

That is exactly what the Americans are trying to do. Ban the leader from being the leader.

:D

Guess that is the reason for the chip war, and this IC thread. There is no other card to play for the Americans.

:p:D
Please, enlighten us also about the superior GPU.

The powerful supercomputers and vast data centers you talk of are literally based on the tech that is going to be restricted.

Anyway, I think it's nearly impossible to restrict commerical hardware from being easily accessible vis indirect channels.

GPU market right now is super over supplied as-is.
 
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