Chinese semiconductor industry

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ansy1968

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I know SN1 didn't run in full potential due to sanctions. Let's hope domestic equipment catch up quickly.
You mean American supplied materials? BUT ASML had delivered all the machines? IF Yes, then it obliged ASML to work with local suppliers to ensure their smooth operation?
 

ansy1968

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You know what brother ansy1968?

If this was real warfare, then the internal build up of the EUV research in China, is like preparing for a full frontal attack.

Meanwhile, the production from mature nodes, that is how to outflank them.

Here we have the Americans thinking they are safe.

This is not much of a war the way it is going.

And there is little chance for a course correction.

Maybe we should call it the Gordan Chang disease. Comrade Chang did his job well.

:p
Yes, from @tphuang previous post China can produce 80% of older nodes today surpassing the 70% benchmark set for Made in China 2025, maybe we read it wrong and that was the very goal from the beginning and from there to upscale their mass production capability to 7nm, commoditizing it and flood the world market. It's like the Peoples War, overwhelm the cities from all side.
 

olalavn

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The Chinese especially GT (usually the Chinese are not upfront and boastful) are becoming expert in trolling the Americans....lol

Bro, I'm looking forward next year, I'm excited, what IF Huawei release both 14nm 3D chiplet and 7nm chip together with SMIC announcement of 5nm N+3 chip, The American will go berserk....lol the threat and sanction didn't work, an obvious sign of a declining empire and I'm thinking by 2026 the US will isolate themselves like what the Ming and Qing dynasty did, cumulating in the hundred years of humiliation.
the high-end semiconductor war will start from 2024... 2026, China will complete their high-end semiconductor supply chain... ready for popcorn and watch drama
 
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ansy1968

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it's not exactly war, it's just the beginning of the semiconductor IP split
So Sir It seems the strategy of using sanction and forming alliances to force the Chinese to the negotiating table had failed miserably. :) There will NO Plaza Accord 2 or any discriminating and onerous trade policy, as the Chinese market are so crucial to the world semiconductor industries and like you said by 2026 it will become bigger than the Collective West combine (as the recession fear and economic downturn affect customer confidence and purchasing power). To make it short by 2025 the Chinese will win and win decisively as the American had throw everything BUT the kitchen sink.;)
 

olalavn

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So Sir It seems the strategy of using sanction and forming alliances to force the Chinese to the negotiating table had failed miserably. :) There will NO Plaza Accord 2 or any discriminating and onerous trade policy, as the Chinese market are so crucial to the world semiconductor industries and like you said by 2026 it will become bigger than the Collective West combine (as the recession fear and economic downturn affect customer confidence and purchasing power). To make it short by 2025 the Chinese will win and win decisively as the American had throw everything BUT the kitchen sink.;)
I'm just saying, who doesn't want to enter the world's largest semiconductor market? including Korea have decided to sign an MOU to reinforce collaboration in supply chain network and set up Collaborative Supply Chain Council with China... Japanese companies need China market more than U.S.

I think someone pro-China lobbied Trump to ban Huawei from using U.S. technology...
 

ansy1968

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I'm just saying, who doesn't want to enter the world's largest semiconductor market? including Korea have decided to sign an MOU to reinforce collaboration in supply chain network and set up Collaborative Supply Chain Council with China... Japanese companies need China market more than U.S.

I think someone pro-China lobbied Trump to ban Huawei from using U.S. technology...
So Sir we may see the United State of Anglo Saxon (5 eyes) isolating themselves and EU may diverge as shown by ASML. ;)

So 2 standard, One for English speaking countries and the others for the Global South plus Russia with EU, SK and Japan using both. That seems to me a total defeat for the Americans. ;)
 
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AndrewS

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So Sir It seems the strategy of using sanction and forming alliances to force the Chinese to the negotiating table had failed miserably. :) There will NO Plaza Accord 2 or any discriminating and onerous trade policy, as the Chinese market are so crucial to the world semiconductor industries and like you said by 2026 it will become bigger than the Collective West combine (as the recession fear and economic downturn affect customer confidence and purchasing power). To make it short by 2025 the Chinese will win and win decisively as the American had throw everything BUT the kitchen sink.;)

I think 2026 is optimistic in terms of the China market being larger than the Collective West.

Personally, I would put it between 2030-2035.
 

ansy1968

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I think 2026 is optimistic in terms of the China market being larger than the Collective West.

Personally, I would put it between 2030-2035.
I know bro BUT at the older and higher node it's possible as seems by numerous FABS expansion of mature nodes of 28nm and above. (China will flood the Market taking in market share as they commoditized the price) Your timetable is correct for 14nm up to 5nm nodes though and I'm seeing that both TSMC and SK will to continue to sell and seek for a compromise as seen by constructing FABS in the US.
 
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