Chinese semiconductor industry

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ansy1968

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JewPizza said:
Pretty good video, and I agree with his conclusion that the only thing the U.S. can really do is stop ASML from selling China DUV's to stall for time. The question is how long can the U.S. stall for and would it be enough for U.S. semiconductor companies to become the new leading edge. Personally, I don't think the U.S. will fail in stalling for time.
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@JewPizza bro what irks the US is that SMIC can able to produce a 7nm Chip ahead of Intel even with all the restriction placed to hinder its progress, now what calm the nerves and anxieties of the Americans are the TSMC FAB which will produce 5nm chips in 2024, in the mind of the US with the restriction place on EUVL sales to China, they will stay ahead, BUT as @olalavn ,@PopularScience and Mr Liang Mong Song themselves said let's wait and see, they're been researching 5nm chips and may produced it using DUVL. And IF that happen the American will blow up once more as the optics of American Exceptionalism had taken a beating again...lol

From an excerpt in the article it say 2 generation behind the leading edge by 2024, so you get my drift. And here the author is talking nonsense, 5nm chip produce in the US will be expensive and a cheaper alternative like old node 28nm and 14nm can suffice especially in auto chips.

TSMC hopes to start production of 5nm chips in Arizona starting in 2024​


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, the next step is to bring in the equipment. The World's leading independent foundry hopes to start the production of 5nm chips inside the states by 2024. By the time that these components start shipping, TSMC's Taiwan fabs will be manufacturing 3nm chips with 2nm expected by 2026. The lower this process node number, the higher the transistor count for these chips. The higher the transistor count, the more powerful and energy-efficient these chips are.

TSMC celebrates the completion of the structure known as Fab 21 in Phoenix, Arizona - TSMC completes the construction of its Phoenix-based fab which will produce 5nm chips in 2024

TSMC celebrates the completion of the structure known as Fab 21 in Phoenix, Arizona
In other words, Fab 21 will be two process nodes behind the most cutting-edge process nodes by the time the Arizona facility starts the production of chips. That isn't terrible since many chips used in the auto industry are made using much older and mature technology and the 5nm process node is just now coming into its own for automobile manufacturing.


TSMC will start shipping 3nm chips later this year. Samsung has already started delivering 3nm chips to cryptocurrency minors using the gate-all-around transistor design that TSMC won't employ until it starts shipping 2nm product (expected by 2026).

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1 day ago — TSMC celebrates the completion of the structure known as Fab 21 in Phoenix, Arizona ... PhoneArena - Phone News, Reviews and Specs.
 
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hvpc

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PopularScience said:
China doesn't have oversupply issue. China can increase tax to deal with this issue, just like LCD panel.

Good luck Taiwan and Singapore.
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That's not what SMIC said in May 2022:
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"the CEO added that the demand slump is worse in China than elsewhere. He explained that US and European markets have experienced a "very quick recovery" but China's buyers have closed their wallets – a response to strict and sweeping COVID-19 lockdowns across the country. Between the war and China's troubles, Zhao said smartphone sales will slip by 200 million this year."

"Zhao expressed optimism about SMIC's prospects, saying that its diverse international clientele means it is in a better position than Chinese chipmaking rivals that focus solely on the domestic market."

On the other hand, UMC & tsmc in their latest 2022 Q2 investor calls are much more positive about their own business outlook.

The product mix for all foundries are different. So the impact from the "industry oversupply" will be different to each of them.
 
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PopularScience

PopularScience

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hvpc said:
That's not what SMIC said in May 2022:
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"the CEO added that the demand slump is worse in China than elsewhere. He explained that US and European markets have experienced a "very quick recovery" but China's buyers have closed their wallets – a response to strict and sweeping COVID-19 lockdowns across the country. Between the war and China's troubles, Zhao said smartphone sales will slip by 200 million this year."

"Zhao expressed optimism about SMIC's prospects, saying that its diverse international clientele means it is in a better position than Chinese chipmaking rivals that focus solely on the domestic market."

On the other hand, UMC & tsmc in their latest 2022 Q2 investor calls are much more about their own business outlook.

The product mix for all foundries are different. So the impact from the "industry oversupply" will be different to each of them.
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Read the second sentence.
 
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JewPizza

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ansy1968 said:
they're been researching 5nm chips and may produced it using DUVL
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I'm not very knowledgeable about semiconductors when it comes to the technical side(I'm more interested in the geopolitical side of things), but don't you need EUV for 5nm chips. It's already an amazing accomplishment for SMIC to make 7 nm N+2 using DUV. If SMIC wants to advance past 7nm, it's gonna have to find a domestically produced EUV machine. The question is how long would it take China to develop an EUV, and I believe people were saying about 10 years(could be wrong). So this brings me back to my point about the U.S. stalling for time. Hypothetically, the U.S. would have 10 years to build its own domestic chip manufacturing base. I know we like to make fun of the amerifats, but I don't think we should underestimate them.
 
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ansy1968

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JewPizza said:
I'm not very knowledgeable about semiconductors when it comes to the technical side(I'm more interested in the geopolitical side of things), but don't you need EUV for 5nm chips. It's already an amazing accomplishment for SMIC to make 7 nm N+2 using DUV. If SMIC wants to advance past 7nm, it's gonna have to find a domestically produced EUV machine. The question is how long would it take China to develop an EUV, and I believe people were saying about 10 years(could be wrong). So this brings me back to my point about the U.S. stalling for time. Hypothetically, the U.S. would have 10 years to build its own domestic chip manufacturing base. I know we like to make fun of the amerifats, but I don't think we should underestimate them.
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@JewPizza bro its the other way around, it's the American that underestimate the Chinese by restricting they think they had hinder the Chinese progress , the hubris and arrogance thus the unexpected rage and disbelief that follow...lol they're been embarrass, yes your right they need an EUVL to produce 5nm Chip BUT the same had been said about 7nm chips, necessity is the mother of innovation and invention and the US don't have the exclusive claimed on it.
 
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