Chinese semiconductor industry
- Thread starter Hendrik_2000
- Start date
- Status
Good. Chinese IC companies are fully booked for many years already. Its the big boys that are going to suffer from a semiconductors oversupply.
There is a gigantic (growing) demand for Chinese-made chips domestically
it is difficult to predict. The semiconductor downturn is not evenly distributed across sectors, there is still a shortage of mature chips, automakers still can't find enough chips for their cars, and even finding enough chips online is difficult. But it seems like everything high-end and PC is going down not only because of rising interest rates but also because of the bursting of the crypto bubble that will dampen demand for CPUs, GPUs, and motherboards, that's because an average crypto miner consumes many times more parts than a PC gamer, they will also flood the market with cheaper used parts. Most mature factories will probably do just fine. For YMTC we will have to wait. What's really scary is that some factories could start slowing down their expansion thinking a recession is coming before the current shortage subsides, that could create a vicious cycle and even wider shortage.
A side effect of US continuous threatening on semi equipment is that Chinese companies cannot really slowdown expansion, even if the market conditions change for the worse, because there is always the high risk of some new ban from US, and the risk will be even bigger after 2024. So maybe international companies will slowdown expansion, but never the Chinese ones, the danger of a new ban on equipment is too big for them to delay the investment.
manqiangrexue
Brigadier
Yup, beginning to vector that fast and dirty power into refined results with no fat.
Everything good is cultivated in China and every bad habit and bag of crap is reduced and cut. This is high level refined management.
No, it is as I said, and as history shows, the CCP keeping activities vectored towards national benefit rather than wild capitalism. Difference is, I'm backed by history and you can only repeat the same wrong crap unable to answer rebuttal.
Oh, but you can't have 15-20 years to harp your wrong views unharrassed. We can look 15-20 years into history when the CCP has closely regulated everything leading to China's growth to the top of the world. See? We don't need to wait till 2040; you're shown to be wrong today, right now!
We waited 20 years from the year 2000 hearing from fake patriots like you and the only damage done was to US hegemony and Western dominance.
Don't worry, you're always wrong and this will be no exception.
Let's hear it! No guarantees, Mr. Participation Prize.
Every time you post, it is.
That's a statement of fact, not a prediction. And the CCP regulates everything; you can't run wild and do your damage no matter what sector you're in. Why wouldn't they regulate semiconductor development?
Good faith? LOL Good faith is earned through content, not by begging. And it's not given to people who have never shown good faith coming here pretending to be a Chinese patriot while accusing China of instigating conflict, genocide, creating COVID, and all the while trying to convince people that China can't possibly compete with the US. At least people like Brat and Brumby had to courage to be clear on which side they stood. Every argument you are in, you are defeated, then you simply fail to rebut then repeat the same defeated points later. That kind of "debate" deserves good faith? Why should it be given to you? Just because you begged for it?
Oh you see no reason, despite them being pointed out to you. Well, good thing you're not in charge, eh? That's why you don't ask the blind guy for the next chess move... except this blind guy won't shut up about what he can't see.
It's got nothing to do with... COVID?
Do you know how many regulations and demands they operate under if American tech companies are allowed at all to operate in China? So many that a good number just quit. This is another case of what you can't see? LOL
I see. This is a vision problem. You don't even know how foreign tech companies are handled in China but you debate out of ignorance.
Xi has a free hand already to ban anything he sees (although you can't) as a threat to Chinese development as it is. He doesn't jump for joy when he sees weeds growing in his garden.
Last edited:
There is a thing called "逆周期投资" meaning invest more during a market down turn. It is famously employed by South Korean, especially Samsung in 1980s, 1990s and 2008. The down turn would reduce the price and profit, forcing many players to reduce production and R&D investment. Samsung by increasing investment and production capacity was making the situation even worse for everybody, some players bankrupted or quit the game like Japan as a whole and US partially. For Samsung it was also a lost. BUT so long as you have a deeper pocket you can withstand the loss, killing everybody else. At the end of the game, you are the only one standing, the next up turn would be all yours to take back your investment. Samsung's deep pocket is SK the state. After these times, Japan is essentially dead and US is severely wounded.
China has a much deeper pocket than South Korea, so China can play the same trick that SK did, only this time SK may become the victim instead of Japan and US.
An example is BOE. Many western smart-xxx were saying BOE was making big loss in its investments, using it as an example of China's inability to climb up the tech ladder. But after so many years loss, see where BOE is? BOE is providing Samsung with panels, pushing Samsung to a "higher end" market sector of panels. That higher end is as high as market of Ferrari but also much smaller than BMW's market.
Last edited:
This along with the EDA post are probably the more important pieces of info about the sector / instead we have pages of emotional conjecture that doesn’t go anywhere. I wish the mods would just purge the other posts.
Pretty good video, and I agree with his conclusion that the only thing the U.S. can really do is stop ASML from selling China DUV's to stall for time. The question is how long can the U.S. stall for and would it be enough for U.S. semiconductor companies to become the new leading edge. Personally, I don't think the U.S. will fail in stalling for time.
China doesn't have oversupply issue. China can increase tax to deal with this issue, just like LCD panel.
Good luck Taiwan and Singapore.
- Status