Chinese semiconductor industry

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horse

horse

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ansy1968 said:
@henrik especially IF the mythical SMEE 22nm DUVL do come in service, then what can ASML sell? EUVL? will they risk the ire of the US?
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Who knows brother.

Another strong possibility is that the Dutch would think the Americans are fools.

The Americans want the Dutch to ban any machine capable of 14nm process manufacturing from the Chinese, when the Chinese already have ASML machines that can do 7nm.

How does this make any sense?

Maybe the Dutch is better off abandoning American demands, and go for more Chinese business.

SMIC at 7nm, is better than what any American fab can do, for at least two years.

Reality is reality.

The Americans are in denial.

They are arguing with reality.

Arguing with reality, we know who always wins.

:oops::D
 
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tokenanalyst

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ASML trims outlook in headwinds and hints price hikes due to inflationary pressure​

Broadcom, TI plan price increases​

Chip Cycle Downturn Nearing As Growth Slows, Analyst Says​


Fabs close ->Chip Shortages ->Price hikes -> Built more fabs ->No enough-> Chip Shortages ->Prices hikes -> consumer demand slow ->Built less fabs -> Chip Shortages -> Price hikes.


Stagflation?
 
A

ansy1968

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horse said:
Who knows brother.

Another strong possibility is that the Dutch would think the Americans are fools.

The Americans want the Dutch to ban any machine capable of 14nm process manufacturing from the Chinese, when the Chinese already have ASML machines that can do 7nm.

How does this make any sense?

Maybe the Dutch is better off abandoning American demands, and go for more Chinese business.

SMIC at 7nm, is better than what any American fab can do, for at least two years.

Reality is reality.

The Americans are in denial.

They are arguing with reality.

Arguing with reality, we know who always wins.

:oops::D
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@horse bro especially when SMIC with all the restriction imposed on them are able to produce a 7nm chip while Intel even with the help of Big Daddy is still stuck at 14nm and they over promise a lot, the favored son sure know how to manipulate showing the Exceptionalism, the whining and unfair play that exemplify the American way of doing business ...lol
 
horse

horse

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You know what brother?

The Dutch knew about this, about this 7nm capacity at SMIC.

Already we cannot prove it, as no one will admit to it, but they knew.

According to the press reports, last couple of weeks the Americans were talking to the Dutch about restricting all machines to China. The Dutch acknowledged those talks.

They acknowledged those talks to ban 14nm machines, when they knew the Chinese were at 7nm already.

Those talks are not going anywhere.

As far as the Dutch are concerned, maybe this problem solved itself?

Time is valuable. Time is money.

No one has too much time for fools.

:p
 
FairAndUnbiased

FairAndUnbiased

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Rettam Stacf said:
Could it also be possible that TSMC "shared" the technology with SMIC ? After all, it is a "Chinese" company and has to position itself for post unification.

TSMC is too big a player in the global supply chain that even the US may not be able to risk disrupting its operation without serious repercussion to the US semiconductor/electronics industries.
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Not directly and not at the organizational level. Only by hiring individuals. Even if the principle is the same, the specifics of the process are so different between different companies due to different tool vendors, different fab layouts, different customer demands, etc.
 
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BlackWindMnt

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tokenanalyst said:

ASML trims outlook in headwinds and hints price hikes due to inflationary pressure​

Broadcom, TI plan price increases​

Chip Cycle Downturn Nearing As Growth Slows, Analyst Says​


Fabs close ->Chip Shortages ->Price hikes -> Built more fabs ->No enough-> Chip Shortages ->Prices hikes -> consumer demand slow ->Built less fabs -> Chip Shortages -> Price hikes.


Stagflation?
Click to expand...
Probably just want grab a bigger share of that US CHIPS for America act. I don't think that the US company will buy Chinese semi equipment?
 
H

hvpc

Junior Member
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PopularScience said:
How many DUVi machines needed by an advanced node fab?
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It varies between DRAM, Logic, 3D-NAND and also between nodes. If we are talking SMIC's new Beijing fab, then it'll need something like 1 million to 1.3M exposures per month. So number of tools required would depends on how many exposures SMEE SSA800 can pump out per month (this would depend intrinsically on the SSA800's wafer-per-hour capability, its uptime, & the fab's utilization).

I don't know what SSA800's specification is so can't speculate.

For ASML, I found this on semiwiki.com:

1658419405373.png

If we take 2019 data, take median number, then I estimate up to 10 ASML immersion systems needed.

For SMEE, again, I don't want to get into trouble and accused of being biased. So allow me to trouble you to do your own speculation & math based on how fast you think SSA800 is relative to ASML's tool. ; )
 
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tokenanalyst

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hvpc said:
It varies between DRAM, Logic, 3D-NAND and also between nodes. If we are talking SMIC's new Beijing fab, then it'll need something like 1 million to 1.3M exposures per month. So number of tools required would depends on how many exposures SMEE SSA800 can pump out per month (this would depend intrinsically on the SSA800's wafer-per-hour capability, its uptime, & the fab's utilization).

I don't know what SSA800's specification is so can't speculate.

For ASML, I found this on semiwiki.com:

View attachment 93690

If we take 2019 data, take median number, then I estimate up to 10 ASML immersion systems needed.

For SMEE, again, I don't want to get into trouble and accused of being biased. So allow me to trouble you to do your own speculation & math based on how fast you think SSA800 is relative to ASML's tool. ; )
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So 180-200 WPH will be good enough for the Chinese market? like 15 SMEE tools? In case of ASML DUVi being banned.
 
H

hvpc

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horse said:
Who knows brother.

Another strong possibility is that the Dutch would think the Americans are fools.

The Americans want the Dutch to ban any machine capable of 14nm process manufacturing from the Chinese, when the Chinese already have ASML machines that can do 7nm.

How does this make any sense?
Click to expand...
SMIC doesn't have lots of 7nm wafer capacities right now. They need way more systems in order to to support domestic 7nm needs. So USG banning more system going to SMIC would still be effective.
horse said:
Maybe the Dutch is better off abandoning American demands, and go for more Chinese business.
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If Intel goes through with all of their claimed fab builds, that business may be bigger than Chinese business. Many high price tag EUV system demands.
horse said:
SMIC at 7nm, is better than what any American fab can do, for at least two years.
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I kept reading many people say this on SDF. Intel has process equivalent to tsmc/Samsung 7nm for at least 3 or 4 years now. Is it because of the confusion with the way Intel and tsmc names their process nodes?
horse said:
Reality is reality.

The Americans are in denial.

They are arguing with reality.

Arguing with reality, we know who always wins.

:oops::D
Click to expand...
 
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