@henrik bro read @tokenanalyst and @FairAndUnbiased post, since the Chinese were restricted to buy EUVL, the focus is now on the back end like packaging. Others look on 3d stacking tech. Bro innovation is a product of necessity, the more you restrict the more they find a solution.
Chinese semiconductor industry
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China will do to semiconductor products as it did to TV products, dramatic lowering of prices in the future.
Has been pretty much an Asian trend, the Japanese lowered the price of electronics a lot in the 80s, followed by the Koreans, Taiwanese and South Asian tigers in the 90s and then by the Mainland Chinese in the 2000s. People over the world can afford cheaper electronics because of that trend. It maybe a combination of goverment support, highly educated people, lower wages and cultural work ethic.
@SDtom bro the plan 25 new FABs until 2026 is a massive undertaking. BUT it still fall short and can't satisfy the target goal of 70% localization, It's a moving target, each year Chip demand increase 17%. So China will not experience a glut since most of the expansion centered on 28nm chips and will move on targeting the more lucrative 14nm , 12nm , 10nm and the most important 7nm. The 7nm is TSMC most profitable product and if SMIC can able to FAB it using SMEE SSA800 DUVL, they can able to capture a sizable market as the demand in China is huge. Lets focus on SMIC, Of the plan 25 new FAB, I can say SMIC Beijing FAB will be one of them, this FAB is huge capable of producing 150,000 WPM and are using all local equipment, I don't know about the other one in Shanghai the new SMIC SN2 FAB IF they're doing the same or use ASML. SMIC is doing a DUAL Strategy approach of using ASML to produce 12nm and 7nm Chips while using local equipment to produce 28nm and 14nm. In this way even without an EUVL they can able to strengthen their CORE Tech competency as the local equipment mature and are comparable to ASML (DUVL). SMIC is one of many Chinese Tech company striving to fill the technical gap.
Can't even get toilets right and they want to do semiconductors XD
before the sanctions, China was catching up in a few areas while failing in many others. Now China is trying to even things out and take a balanced approach to build the entire supply chain, while basically ignoring the top end. I think the additional 3 years gap is mostly in fabs. But more broadly, China probably has technical footholds in areas that SK simply doesn't touch as they are just using imports. At the end of the day, if they don't play their cards right, they will be completely shut out of the Chinese market. without profits, you can't improve as fast. it's a law you can't break no matter how you spin it.
While Samsung's share in DRAM will be secure, their share in NAND is a lot less safe. With regards to SK Hynix I expect them to switch their Chinese factories from DRAM to NAND production progressively because of the sanctions on EUV tool imports to Chinese soil. SK Hynix has made massive investments into their Chinese chip production operations and they seem to be there to stay. Although the lack of possibility of EUV imports is bound to bite them.
Like I said I think Samsung's logic position in the future is quite weak given their own problems with yields and the massive investment TSMC is putting into 5nm and lower process factories. TSMC is probably going to obliterate everyone else in that segment unless there is some kind of major event. From the current situation where you have TSMC, Samsung, and Intel as a distant third in logic, it will be just TSMC at resolutions lower than 5nm. Samsung will have so limited yields that if it wasn't for their other divisions, like consumer electronics, they might have closed down.
I would disagree that China gave up the leading edge in favor of spreading development more to all areas. The truth is they are massively ramping up in all areas and they only aren't pushing in cases where they can't because of sanctions or whatever. The Chinese stock exchange has also given their semiconductor sector a massive cash infusion to fund all of this.
With only TSMC as the leading edge monopoly that would be an extremely precarious situation for US fabless companies who will be forced to deal with monopoly pricing. This depends of course on Samsung's GAA situation. If they can get GAA to work better than they are doing with EUV based FinFET then they'll come back. Otherwise no.
Chinese fabless companies for SoC will be forced to deal with monopoly for leading edge nodes but will have plenty of choice for 14 nm and below i.e. for ASICs and chips designed from the ground up for advanced packaging.
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