Chinese semiconductor industry

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tokenanalyst

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hvpc said:
Very nice that they were able to make this work. I wonder if this is production ready with acceptable yield? It also look like they use foreign HBM since no one in China could do D1y yet.
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U-Precision sell Hybrid Bonding Machines.

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My guess is like everything new some refinements may still needed but the trend is clear get more performance out of mature nodes.
 
FairAndUnbiased

FairAndUnbiased

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hvpc said:
maybe I mislead you. hybrid bonding today is mostly between silicon/silicon wafers, but the bonding pad material is copper.

I'm not following/understanding the "types" of wafer bonding you mentioned. Could it be that we are talking about the same thing but using different terminology?? everything you listed, I'm just calling Hybrid Bonding.

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maybe we are indeed getting terminology confused. when you mentioned Van Der Waals force as what is holding the wafers together, that made me think immediately of direct Si bonding, not Cu-Cu bonding which is a metallic bond. Cu-Cu metallic bonding is typically achieved through metallic interdiffusion, which is basically
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(well, warm welding in real processes).
 
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antiterror13

Brigadier
hvpc said:
Well, I think everyone on this forum would certainly hope so.

Since I'm closer to the industry than most of you, I'm a bit more skeptical based on what I'm see and hear. But, I'd love if I' proven wrong. : )

How old is the info in the link you provided? I'm surprised at these two statements as it seems to differ from what was shared I this forum recently:

"A completely operational SSMB source has still to be demonstrated."

"If funding is forthcoming, the Tsinghua team hope to construct a dedicated SSMB storage ring in Beijing, says Tang.“If things go well, we plan to build it in the following five to six years.”"

What's your interpretation/take on this?
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Well, currently China developing all DPP, LPP and SSMB EUV machine at the same time

Currently only DPP EUV machine is produced by ASML and ASML is the only company producing EUV machine. I see that LPP has a potential that better than DPP. But SSMB would be a game changer as it could produce kilowatt-level radiation source for EUV, much much higher than current EUV machine from ASML, I wouldn't be surprised that China may be the first to produce EUV machine with SSMB EUV sourced light in late 20s or early 30s. When I said China could make EUV machine in 2026-27, I was referring to DPP or LPP EUV machine, which is possible in my opinion
 
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hvpc

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tokenanalyst said:
U-Precision sell Hybrid Bonding Machines.

View attachment 87558
My guess is like everything new some refinements may still needed but the trend is clear get more performance out of mature nodes.
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I just checked out this Hybrid Bonding tool's spec. This still need improvement to be used for advanced packaging. The alignment accuracy of 200nm & throughput of 12-18wph is not competitive for manufacturing. But it is a good foundation to build on.

For integration of very advanced chips with dense bonding pads of small pitch (<1um), the leading Hybrid bonding tool is spec'ed at <50nm & >50wph and still improving per mandate from the likes of tsmc and Intel.
 
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Topazchen

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hvpc said:
I don't dispute anything you said. I'm in complete agreement. It IS just a matter of time for China semiconductor to catchup and even lead. But, I think we may have different view on what "short term" means. : )


Oh, by the way, I think you all misinterpret my post in response to @Topazchen. What I tried to point out was the US market is still very big and heavily reliant on tsmc, and case in point that US companies swooped in and filled the void left by the lose of Huawei business.

tsmc's top-10 customers accounts for ~80% of their business. 7 of 10 are US companies. With new Intel business, tsmc will make even more $ from the Us. Unless someone can catchup to tsmc in terms of capability and capacity, there's no way that US government will stop tsmc from selling to US customers (which was what @Topazchen said).

I was merely disputing the validity assumption that "Uncle Sam will stop tsmc from selling to both US and China". Doing so would kill off the US fabless companies, of course unless someone (Intel?) can replace tsmc (and this will not be any time soon). So,
1. if US market remains big, tsmc's future would be fine;
2. if China market surpasses US, tsmc could always switch allegiance and start selling to the China market (this of course unless SMIC can catch up to tsmc).

Either way, I just don't see how tsmc's future would be bleak...unless assumption I provided comes true.
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While what you are saying in this reply is correct , I think you also did not get my main point.
I did not say that there will be US restrictions on TSMC but a mandate that all electronics/electricals sold in the US contain only US made chips.

TSMC will happily supply those chips from the Fabs in Arizona and Oregon but what about the Fabs in Taiwan which now can't supply to US and China bound electronics ?

Will the rest of the world be enough to support the gigantic investments in Taiwan?
 
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hvpc

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Topazchen said:
While what you are saying in this reply is correct , I think you also did not get my main point.
I did not say that there will be US restrictions on TSMC but a mandate that all electronics/electricals sold in the US contain only US made chips.

TSMC will happily supply those chips from the Fabs in Arizona and Oregon but what about the Fabs in Taiwan which now can't supply to US and China bound electronics ?

Will the rest of the world be enough to support the gigantic investments in Taiwan?
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No, I got your point. Again, the US demand is larger than what AZ can supply. Until someone can replace tsmc's capability and the capacity, US government would not mandate US made chips.

200Kwpm 7nm, 200Kwpm 5nm, and expected 200Kwpm 3nm....who in the U.S. can supply these wafers? AZ has only 20K/month at 5nm, even if tsmc invest more to complete all six phases, that's only 120Kwpm.

Even if the US do want to invest 600K wpm, where will the EUV & DUV scanners come from? ASML could not produce enough tools to meet demand, how many years will it takes for any US fab to acquire enough scanners to support 600K wpm expansion?
 
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gelgoog

Lieutenant General
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Brazil tried that with huge tariffs on imports of electronics and consumer electronics. So how advanced is Brazil's electronics industry? Right.
They have had the tariffs for decades.

In practice Brazil has some assemblers of sub par consumer electronics and next to no chip fabrication. Most people prefer electronics imports but the prices are eye watering. Try checking out the price of smartphones in Brazil.

Asia, and China in particular, is such a huge electronics market it cannot be ignored. Once China solves the machine tool issue I am pretty sure this kind of discussion will stop. China will become the world's largest semiconductor manufacturer.
 
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