Chinese semiconductor industry

AndrewS said:

"Undercut America on pricing" AND develop better technology in the long term

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This is by far the best approach.

China, as the rest of the world, simply cannot oppose US with the same tactics / behaviors of US. US is bullying, but would love if China would reply in a questionable, not legal way. So that US would have a good excuse to go full steam against China.

The reality is that US is the superpower nation, the hegemonic nation in the world, and this gives US huge privileges. See what happened to US when went to Afghanistan and see what is happening now to Russia for Ukraine crisis. Totally different response by "the world" and totally different price to pay, although both wars have been unjustified to great extent.

The US is the boss now! So currently the hard reality is "rules for thee and not for me". China cannot avoid to following the rules, as it has always done til today. Breaking the rules to counter US with same weapons is a trap. Us would love it!

european_guy said:

Contrary to opinion of majority here, I think this "rumor" of YMTC entering Apple supply chain is not good for YMTC.

First of all this is still a rumor, something under discussion at the moment, Apple has not confirmed it and there is no fixed deal for what I can read around. It means this can be derailed at any time.

The political pressure and monitoring of US administartion will raise on YMTC (if is not already enough) and there is the serious possibility for US to finally put YMTC on the entity list for the sole reason to derail this project.

It seems to me a very "ambitious" and not cautious enough move by YMTC: it can backfire hugely. A more prudent move would have been to start first supplying some Chinese smartphone manufacturer (there are many). But going to Apple as first it means "to poke in the eye" US administration. Too dangerous, not good for a firm that since years walks on the edge of the ban like YMTC.

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Lmfao, what a ridiculous stance, if US wants to put YMTC on the entity list, it will do so regardless whether this deal goes through. Just invent a reason and the job is done. China's existence is a "poke in the eye" of the US administration. Time to stop walking on eggshells, all eggshells have already been thoroughly trodden on the moment China became a peer competitor.

huemens said:

Huawei 2021 net profits surge 75.9% amid US government sanctions, firm now ‘more capable in dealing with uncertainties’

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The last two sentences is interesting. Granted it’s not by Huawei itself but it’s a comment that seems to indicate something may happen next year since GT included it in their article.

"Last year was a difficult year for Huawei, just as the poster of the press conference showed. It displayed a ship sailing forward and breaking ice," Xiang Ligang, director-general of the Information Consumption Alliance, an industry association, told the Global Times on Monday.

"2022 will still be difficult, but maybe we can expect a 'glorious return' in 2023," Xiang said.

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FriedButter said:

The last two sentences is interesting. Granted it’s not by Huawei itself but it’s a comment that seems to indicate something may happen next year since GT included it in their article.

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@FriedButter bro connect the dotted, Huawei Shanghai FAB completed in May 2022, plus Hisilicon 14nm 3D chiplet = The Return of the King in 2023.

european_guy said:

Contrary to opinion of majority here, I think this "rumor" of YMTC entering Apple supply chain is not good for YMTC.

First of all this is still a rumor, something under discussion at the moment, Apple has not confirmed it and there is no fixed deal for what I can read around. It means this can be derailed at any time.

The political pressure and monitoring of US administartion will raise on YMTC (if is not already enough) and there is the serious possibility for US to finally put YMTC on the entity list for the sole reason to derail this project.

It seems to me a very "ambitious" and not cautious enough move by YMTC: it can backfire hugely. A more prudent move would have been to start first supplying some Chinese smartphone manufacturer (there are many). But going to Apple as first it means "to poke in the eye" US administration. Too dangerous, not good for a firm that since years walks on the edge of the ban like YMTC.

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Why stop at that? They should just dissolve the business to avoid offending the Americans. What about Huawei? Do you think Ren should pull out of all the countries where they operate and focus on the Chinese market in return of sanctions lifting ?

dengyeye said:

Lmfao, what a ridiculous stance, if US wants to put YMTC on the entity list, it will do so regardless whether this deal goes through. Just invent a reason and the job is done. China's existence is a "poke in the eye" of the US administration. Time to stop walking on eggshells, all eggshells have already been thoroughly trodden on the moment China became a peer competitor.

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Indeed. YMTC becoming an Apple supplier is a good thing for it. Apple is a well-oiled machine which requires extreme reliability from its suppliers. YMTC will surely learn a lot of things from it.

If Huawei ever wants to be successful with its phones again then it needs to put as much resources as possible into its AppGallery. There are not much differences between high-end phones nowaday, and people will not choose Huawei phones if it doesn't have good apps. It is one of the reason why Blackberry failed.

SDtom said:

If Huawei ever wants to be successful with its phones again then it needs to put as much resources as possible into its AppGallery. There are not much differences between high-end phones nowaday, and people will not choose Huawei phones if it doesn't have good apps. It is one of the reason why Blackberry failed.

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@SDtom with the Russian onboard, it shall be done.

AndrewS said:

"Undercut America on pricing" AND develop better technology in the long term

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I don't think we are at that point yet. I think develop good enough technology for most of chip demand and undercut in pricing is what they can realistically aim in the next couple of years. And it would be a pretty great achievement.

ansy1968 said:

@FriedButter bro connect the dotted, Huawei Shanghai FAB completed in May 2022, plus Hisilicon 14nm 3D chiplet = The Return of the King in 2023.

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I don't have the same love for Huawei here. Doesn't matter who succeeds. Just need someone to succeed in all part of the supply chain. Given all the sanctions on Huawei, I think it's more likely other Chinese companies succeed here.

Overbom said:

Indeed. YMTC becoming an Apple supplier is a good thing for it. Apple is a well-oiled machine which requires extreme reliability from its suppliers. YMTC will surely learn a lot of things from it.

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Right, becoming Apple supplier makes it far less likely to be sanctioned. Apple has significant lobbying power inside the congress. Make no mistake, this is a great thing if true.

SDtom said:

If Huawei ever wants to be successful with its phones again then it needs to put as much resources as possible into its AppGallery. There are not much differences between high-end phones nowaday, and people will not choose Huawei phones if it doesn't have good apps. It is one of the reason why Blackberry failed.

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Doesn't really work that way. Most of the apps are developed by app developers once they know enough people are using that OS. That's why Windows phone never succeeded. Nobody developed apps for it, because nobody used it. Certainly, having Russians use Harmony is a great thing for Huawei.

Overbom said:

Indeed. YMTC becoming an Apple supplier is a good thing for it. Apple is a well-oiled machine which requires extreme reliability from its suppliers. YMTC will surely learn a lot of things from it.

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YMTC needs to watch out because Apple has had an history of killing suppliers. One sapphire crystal company for example went bankrupt. They will ask for cut down prices and huge production volume. A company without the fabrication facilities might feel tempted to expand their facilities to meet the contract then get it pulled out from under their feet if they delay even for the shortest time.
I think YMTC would be better off using their limited production to hook as many clients as possible. Instead of a monopsony client as fickle as Apple.

There is also a chance they might try to extract corporate secrets from YMTC which will then get leaked to someone else. YMTC can do a deal but need to come with both eyes open. Personally I think it is too early and they should wait until they expand fab capacity.