Chinese semiconductor industry

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Coalescence

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I guess the idea here is to "coordinate" banning of semi equipment to China.

If only US equipment are banned, this may be not strong enough and allows free hands to competitors, mainly Japanese. But if all these regions are "coordinated" then US can ban almost all semi equipment to China. I guess we are heading in that direction. The best countermove by China is to keep localizing equipment as fast as possible, because clock is ticking...

Another and more subtle goal is to prevent Chinese equipment manufacturers from selling outside China, creating a de-facto decoupling in semiconductor market that can be even more dangerous in the long term. It won't be easy for China to avoid that.
Coordinating a equipment ban between allies against China will likely be limited in success. Because sure, banning may disrupt the semiconductor industry in China, but this will spur the incentives and investment into developing a domestic alternative, which is worse for US and their allies in the long run. Its better to continue selling equipment to stifle the growth of a domestic alternative and gain more leverage by having the industry be depended on foreign equipment.

Preventing sales of Chinese equipment manufacturers from selling outside of China is a better idea, it will stifle their growth even further combined with the previous strategy. But China's objective should be mainly self-sufficiency, and development of leading edge ones second. I suggest China to pro-actively support the industry through subsidies and collaboration between semiconductor industries, ban imports for foreign equipment when a domestic one is available and production is enough to meet domestic needs, in order to give them more and maintain the current market share, which will help the sustainability and development of their company.

Once China reaches a certain level of self-sufficiency and US still belligerently pursue their strategy of decoupling, they can do the nuclear option of completely unrecognizing patents related to semiconductors from foreign countries that worked with US on the decoupling strategy, because a lot of semiconductor research currently in China is just finding another way to do the same thing. Though this is a major escalation on its own, so I don't think will China do such a thing, unless they want to or have already completely break from the West.
 

ansy1968

Brigadier
Registered Member
Coordinating a equipment ban between allies against China will likely be limited in success. Because sure, banning may disrupt the semiconductor industry in China, but this will spur the incentives and investment into developing a domestic alternative, which is worse US and their allies in the long run. Its better to continue selling equipment to stifle the growth of a domestic alternative and gain more leverage by having the industry be depended on foreign equipment.

Preventing sales of Chinese equipment manufacturers from selling outside of China is a better idea, it will stifle their growth even further combined with the previous strategy. But China's objective should be mainly self-sufficiency, and development of leading edge ones second. I suggest China to pro-actively support the industry through subsidies and collaboration between semiconductor industries, ban imports for foreign equipment when a domestic one is available and production is enough to meet domestic needs, in order to give them more and maintain the current market share, which will help the sustainability and development of their company.

Once China reaches a certain level of self-sufficiency and US still belligerently pursue their strategy of decoupling, they can do the nuclear option of completely unrecognizing patents related to semiconductors from foreign countries that worked with US on the decoupling strategy, because a lot of semiconductor research currently in China is just finding another way to do the same thing. Though this is a major escalation on its own, so I don't think will China do such a thing, unless they want to or have already completely break from the West.
@Coalescence bro what @european_guy meant to say is that the US will not allow its allies to use Chinese equipment. It's a bargain that Netherlands impose on denying the sales of EUVL to SMIC. Will it succeed? ASML need to address its supply chain issues first as posted by @tinrobert, the expansion of FABS in the US is a way to help them BUT for me it will become a vanity project cause the cost alone is high. The FABS will be finished in 2025, by that time SMEE SSA800 and SSA900 is in mass use, together with 3D stacking Chiplet technology China will flood the market, Now which country is the largest market for semiconductors, will SK and Taiwan company decouple and follow the US diktat? Of course not cause there is an alternative which is SMEE and whatever agreement they sign those businessman follow where the money is. "Money talks, Bullshit walks"
 

Coalescence

Senior Member
Registered Member
@Coalescence bro what @european_guy meant to say is that the US will not allow its allies to use Chinese equipment. It's a bargain that Netherlands impose on denying the sales of EUVL to SMIC. Will it succeed? ASML need to address its supply chain issues first as posted by @tinrobert, the expansion of FABS in the US is a way to help them BUT for me it will become a vanity project cause the cost alone is high. The FABS will be finished in 2025, by that time SMEE SSA800 and SSA900 is in mass use, together with 3D stacking Chiplet technology China will flood the market, Now which country is the largest market for semiconductors, will SK and Taiwan company decouple and follow the US diktat? Of course not cause there is an alternative which is SMEE and whatever agreement they sign those businessman follow where the money is. "Money talks, Bullshit walks"
Yup, I understood what european_guy said, what I meant to say is if they don't allow them to buy Chinese equipment overseas then China should do the same, if they have domestic alternative with enough production available. Thinking further, China doesn't technically have to do the nuclear option, they could selectively give semiconductor companies that got overseas sales banned, immunity in breaking foreign patents secretly, after all what's there to lose, when they aren't allowed to sell it overseas in the first place. If they somehow found out the company illegally did patent infringement, China could prolong the investigation or court process for 10 yrs or more, maybe burn that foreign company's money in court and lawyer fees as much as they can.
 

ansy1968

Brigadier
Registered Member
Yup, I understood what european_guy said, what I meant to say is if they don't allow them to buy Chinese equipment overseas then China should do the same, if they have domestic alternative with enough production available. Thinking further, China doesn't technically have to do the nuclear option, they could selectively give semiconductor companies that got overseas sales banned, immunity in breaking foreign patents secretly, after all what's there to lose, when they aren't allowed to sell it overseas in the first place. If they somehow found out the company illegally did patent infringement, China could prolong the investigation or court process for 10 yrs or more, maybe burn that foreign company's money in court and lawyer fees as much as they can.
@Coalescence bro China needs to produced an alternative, a cheaper one, IF they able to do that the floodgates will open. The Collective West knew it thus the embargo, BUT they pick a wrong country, China with its hundred years of humiliation will not forget and also how many millions are there in the Collective West 800 million what about the Global South and of Turkey, Russia and Iran, nearly 5billion, those country, majority of them can't afford an Iphone, well even those from the West can't, so China can provide and produce affordable consumer goods. Bro that's power for you, It's one of China soft power.
 

tphuang

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Staff member
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It totally makes sense for America to pressure Japan, SK and Taiwan to build chips in America and to hand over technology to America. They can use the PRC boogeyman as the reason behind the push to get politicians on board. But in reality, what America wants is it to dominate the chip industry. It doesn't want Asian or European countries to be at the forefront of chip industry. This is what gives America power. Just as having troops in the Middle East gave America power in the past 70 years.

The best way forward for China is to develop its own supply chain and undercut America on pricing. That strategy has worked everywhere else.

of course, China also lucked out that America has too many culture wars going on to embrace the other great change of this century, which is the rise of renewable energy and EVs.
 

AndrewS

Brigadier
Registered Member
It totally makes sense for America to pressure Japan, SK and Taiwan to build chips in America and to hand over technology to America. They can use the PRC boogeyman as the reason behind the push to get politicians on board. But in reality, what America wants is it to dominate the chip industry. It doesn't want Asian or European countries to be at the forefront of chip industry. This is what gives America power. Just as having troops in the Middle East gave America power in the past 70 years.

The best way forward for China is to develop its own supply chain and undercut America on pricing. That strategy has worked everywhere else.

of course, China also lucked out that America has too many culture wars going on to embrace the other great change of this century, which is the rise of renewable energy and EVs.

"Undercut America on pricing" AND develop better technology in the long term
 

weig2000

Captain
One of the countermoves from China is to require multinational corporations to cultivate or develop local supply chain in China, in order for them to access Chinese market ...

I guess the idea here is to "coordinate" banning of semi equipment to China.

If only US equipment are banned, this may be not strong enough and allows free hands to competitors, mainly Japanese. But if all these regions are "coordinated" then US can ban almost all semi equipment to China. I guess we are heading in that direction. The best countermove by China is to keep localizing equipment as fast as possible, because clock is ticking...

Another and more subtle goal is to prevent Chinese equipment manufacturers from selling outside China, creating a de-facto decoupling in semiconductor market that can be even more dangerous in the long term. It won't be easy for China to avoid that.

... like Apple or Tesla.

YMTC will supply NAND flash to Apple

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european_guy

Junior Member
Registered Member
One of the countermoves from China is to require multinational corporations to cultivate or develop local supply chain in China, in order for them to access Chinese market ...



... like Apple or Tesla.

Contrary to opinion of majority here, I think this "rumor" of YMTC entering Apple supply chain is not good for YMTC.

First of all this is still a rumor, something under discussion at the moment, Apple has not confirmed it and there is no fixed deal for what I can read around. It means this can be derailed at any time.

The political pressure and monitoring of US administartion will raise on YMTC (if is not already enough) and there is the serious possibility for US to finally put YMTC on the entity list for the sole reason to derail this project.

It seems to me a very "ambitious" and not cautious enough move by YMTC: it can backfire hugely. A more prudent move would have been to start first supplying some Chinese smartphone manufacturer (there are many). But going to Apple as first it means "to poke in the eye" US administration. Too dangerous, not good for a firm that since years walks on the edge of the ban like YMTC.
 
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