@dengyeye only for EUVL BUT not DUVL, Now that SMEE SSA800 DUVL is out, combine with 3D stacking tech and focusing on advance packaging they will able to keep pace until 2025 when the expected Chinese EUVL arrived.
Chinese semiconductor industry
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Chinese firms that aid Russia may be cut off from U.S. equipment -commerce secretary
If the United States were to find that a company like Semiconductor Manufacturing International Corporation was selling its chips to Russia, "we could essentially shut SMIC down because we prevent them from using our equipment and our software," she was quoted as telling the New York Times.Edit: Already posted by Mossen .. sorry
antiterror13
Brigadier
Actually only 2 companies that can produce 7nm, Intel hasn't done it, the latest desktop CPU is at 10nm even intel says it is Intel 7 process, which used to be referred to as '10nm Enhanced SuperFin
so is this an empty threat?
The threat here is not to stop selling new US equipment, but to shutdown existing ones. This kind of high-tech equipment is remotely monitored for maintenance and correct operation, I don't know if it is also possible to remotely control it (I'd guess it is). So US, according to secretary of commerce's statement could in theory force stopping all the already installed US equipment (mostly AMAT and LAM Research). This would effectively completely block SMIC (and mostly any other Chinese fab)....ASML may even not be involved in all this madness, and I guess it would not be, because this is the "nuclear option" button for US.
Until today common wisdom was that China needs to urgently localize all US technology...now it seems Chinese fab have to figure out a plan to also replace existing US equipment huge installed base...some more homework here.
My personal comment is that these kind of statements from such high level US officials have a long term very deep impact. My view is that they are shouted too thoughtlessly and boldly. Of course I am none compared to them.
Intel 7 (former 10 nm) is equivalent to TSMC's 7 nm in node density as far as I know.
antiterror13
Brigadier
maybe equivalent to TSMC's 7nm in density, but the process is not 7nm
You comply with US demand as much as possible until you have a viable path for everything domestically and then you show the middle finger. You don't do it while you are not 100% sufficient. SMIC is doing well. I'm sure it knows what are the most logical choice. Just don't expect US to not catch you in act.
@dengyeye bro the threat is real, IF there is NO alternatives, that's the reason why DUVL is allowed to be exported cause there is a local equivalent available (SMEE SSA800 DUVL) while the EUVL are not cause ASML had a Monopoly. From this year onward, we will hear and learn a lot of progress China had achieved , those back breaking years of toiled had finally bearing fruits and many of us will be shock and surprise that what we are speculating and discussing here are coming to fruition...lol
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I think she's referring to future sales and services like software upgrades, they think SMIC might not be able to expand in the future. I don't think those SME have an off switch because that would be a really bad PR move for U.S. semi companies.
The problem now is that the ban is mostly for Russian military ICs and that's such a small customer that even if SMIC were almost 100% independent, they're going to wonder if it's worth the risk of losing potential customers in Europe, because remember this is a European conflict, for such a small customer in Russia BUT and this is when US foreign policy comes to bite them in the back, by launching sanctions against Chinese companies left and right, the US is forcing China's semiconductor industry to localize most of its equipment, software, and materials. That means the US is losing one of its greatest assets inside China: Transparency.
There is a US-sanctioned company that not only manufactures advanced semiconductor equipment such as ion implanters for 28nm nodes and below, but can also purchase any type of ICs, equipment, software, and materials in China from companies such as SMEE, AMEC, Naura, etc. without any kind of transparency and that company is CETC, they could offer a very good lifeline to the Russian military to get advanced electronics and semiconductors by collaborating with Russian companies. They are already sanctioned and had little to lose. They could help Russia to get good in Areas were they really lack like advanced drones.
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