Chinese semiconductor industry

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ansy1968

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european_guy said:
I think China maybe should fix a point target in the future and work backward.

In November 5, 2024 there will be the elections in US, there is a high probability (according to current polls) that some very hawkish republican will be the new president. So maybe starting 2025 there will be very possibly a strong ban on China high-tech. With that target in mind:
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@european_guy bro 2025 is an infection point for China cause 2024 is also the date of Taiwan Presidential election.
european_guy said:
1) In which (realistically) state of local semiconductor ecosystem China wants to be at that time target of early 2025?
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TO many to mention If you read this thread the following are the indigenous 28nm mass production had been achieved last year and within this year the 14nm, others like the introduction of SMEE SSA800 DUVL and Huawei 14nm 3D Stacking chiplet with SMIC having completed its 7nm chip project. So all the tools for self sufficiency up to 7nm chips are there with SMIC two prong approach of using foreign equipment in realizing its Core competency and then switch to local equivalent (SMEE SSA800 DUVL) when the equipment have been improve.
european_guy said:
2) Which step are needed? Which is the plan to reach the target at point 1 starting from current situation?
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all expert points to 2025 for the eventual introduction of either SMEE or CETC EUVL powered by SSBM and it's not only SMIC, Huawei will be producing 28nm and 22nm chips this year in their new FAB in Shanghai. It may sound arrogant BUT I think China will achieve a full spectrum IC independence by 2024 (up to 7nm chips).
european_guy said:
P.S: Eventually a ban could be enforced also earlier if the election campaign gets tough and current administration needs some "tough on China" show off.
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@european_guy bro you gave the main reason why Europe will not cooperate with China, The EU by extension is a pawn of the US by refusing to sell an EUVL manufactured by ASML upon the request of the American.
 
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tokenanalyst

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european_guy said:
I think China maybe should fix a point target in the future and work backward.

In November 5, 2024 there will be the elections in US, there is a high probability (according to current polls) that some very hawkish republican will be the new president. So maybe starting 2025 there will be very possibly a strong ban on China high-tech. With that target in mind:

1) In which (realistically) state of local semiconductor ecosystem China wants to be at that time target of early 2025?

2) Which step are needed? Which is the plan to reach the target at point 1 starting from current situation?


P.S: Eventually a ban could be enforced also earlier if the election campaign gets tough and current administration needs some "tough on China" show off.
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1- Depends who you ask, for the government, independent as possible, for companies, secure as possible.

2- Collaboration between suppliers, fabs and chips designers. EUVL is the collaboration between ASML, Intel, TSMC, Samsung and others. If SMIC and others would have collaborate with SMEE from early on, SMEE would have catch up with international players at least in immersion and dry frontend lithography, but if nobody wants to buy their machine they can't make it better, also would make perfect sense for SMEE just to focus in the niche areas were they are making money like advance packaging, mems, power and FPD.
Before the sanctions almost all China semi players EDA and equipment companies were making their money in niches areas, like packaging, solar, led. power and so on. But after the sanctions that is changing really fast.
 
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tokenanalyst

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european_guy said:
P.S: Eventually a ban could be enforced also earlier if the election campaign gets tough and current administration needs some "tough on China" show off.
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More complicated than that, the only two reasons the US hasn't changed the rule from "Unique" to "Capable" and gone unilateral on export control is because the existence of domestic Chinese suppliers like AMEC and Naura and the unwillingness of the EU and Japan go beyond the Wassenaar deal, as someone in the defense department says "the problem with multilateral export controls is that US allies see the risk differently", that's mean the U.S. could take all the losses while their competitors like TEL or Naura will reap the benefits.
EUV is easy because China is in the research stage and everyone assumes that they won't have an EUV machine for at least 10 years.

You are correct, even if don't happen they should prepare themselves for a full ban.
 
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AndrewS

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european_guy said:
I think China maybe should fix a point target in the future and work backward.

In November 5, 2024 there will be the elections in US, there is a high probability (according to current polls) that some very hawkish republican will be the new president. So maybe starting 2025 there will be very possibly a strong ban on China high-tech. With that target in mind:

1) In which (realistically) state of local semiconductor ecosystem China wants to be at that time target of early 2025?

2) Which step are needed? Which is the plan to reach the target at point 1 starting from current situation?


P.S: Eventually a ban could be enforced also earlier if the election campaign gets tough and current administration needs some "tough on China" show off.
Click to expand...

Or the US quietly de-escalates the trade war import tariffs, so that American consumers gain respite from high inflation.

Plus I expect the Chinese economy is be larger than the US in exchange rate terms around 2025.
Then it should be obvious that a trade/technology war against a larger economy with more R&D spending is a losing proposition.
 
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ansy1968

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AndrewS said:
Or the US quietly de-escalates the trade war import tariffs, so that American consumers gain respite from high inflation.

Plus I expect the Chinese economy is be larger than the US in exchange rate terms around 2025.
Then it should be obvious that a trade/technology war against a larger economy with more R&D spending is a losing proposition.
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@AndrewS Ohh I forget by 2025 China may have reach parity with the US in Nominal GDP.
 
manqiangrexue

manqiangrexue

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Zli said:
It's a correct assumption as well b/c even if China had an EUVL prototype today; it would take years for China to learn how to use the prototype and create the entire toolchain to be able to use EUVL effectively - masks, photoresists, etc. China being forced to stop its development at ArF immersion (when that *ever* comes 2021! No 2022! but this time its real!) is more or less a given for a decade+ now
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They're being developed concurrently, not one after the other. Every assumption (or rather, empty hope) the West makes about China was, is, and will continue to be wrong.
 
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tokenanalyst

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Zli said:
It's a correct assumption as well b/c even if China had an EUVL prototype today; it would take years for China to learn how to use the prototype and create the entire toolchain to be able to use EUVL effectively - masks, photoresists, etc. China being forced to stop its development at ArF immersion (when that *ever* comes 2021! No 2022! but this time its real!) is more or less a given for a decade+ now
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That is an assumption, nobody should get things for granted, China is not a new player in EUVL.
The commercialization of the immersion Lithography machine has its own unique players like Cheertech and the EUVL will have their own unique set of players like companies that will make the multilayers mirrors, ultra high vacuum, and CO2 lasers and if Tsinghua hit the jackpot with SSMB as a light source they too will be a able to commercialize that. So there is not too much overlapping between between the EUVL and Arfi in China............................ For now. As a integrator SMEE will keep their focus in optical lithography for now until all the sources companies for the EUVL machine are available. From my point of view it could happen sooner than most people think.
 
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