Chinese semiconductor industry

techfrontier said:

That hyper-nationalist Dai Weiwei said that the ArF immersion failed

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1. The last time a nationalist said J-20 was going to take until after 2020, what happened?
2. He's not even a semiconductor insider/expert.
3. What is the definition of failed? Cannot produce anything or failed to match ASML's best in one leap?

techfrontier said:

Cool. The US blocking all intermediary and capital goods means China is unable to make anything in the upper-level of the supply chain for a long time.

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How long's a long time? You in a hurry? Going somewhere? We're not, and there's no finish line or bell at the end of the round. This competition doesn't need to end soon. So far, every time the US tries to embargo something to China, China becomes self-sufficient in it, without fail. Yet the US repeats this desperate move. Semiconductors/lithography are surely no exception. But I'm not blaming them; if I had a gun loaded with bullets that don't do shit except delay the inevitable by a few minutes, I'd shoot them all off too.

The Dutch firm that investors are going wild over is now creating a machine that could redefine electronics​

High NA is set to be even bigger, more expensive and more complicated than ASML’s current EUV machine.

“It includes a novel optics design and requires significantly faster stages,” an ASML spokesperson told CNBC. They added that the High NA machine has a higher resolution that will enable 1.7x smaller chip features and 2.9x increased chip density.

In July, Intel CEO Pat Gelsinger said the company expects to be the first recipient of ASML’s High NA machine.

techfrontier said:

That hyper-nationalist Dai Weiwei said that the ArF immersion failed

Cool. The US blocking all intermediary and capital goods means China is unable to make anything in the upper-level of the supply chain for a long time.

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Dai Weiwei. Do he work in any of the companies supplying for SMEE? Is he a CAS researcher? Do he work in the Chinese Semiconductor industry in China high level projects? of course no, i would take anything from twitter PRO OR CON with a truck load of salt. Twitter and social media in general is normally crap for information. If tomorrow an hyper-pro American idiot says that SMEE will develop EUVL in just a year, do you will take seriously? because i dont until i have done my own research, that is why i usually avoid posting from twitter or any social media.
I think the Chinese are more advanced in semiconductors than most people give them credit and some times you have to do to step back for a jump forward but U.S. semi companies are going to fight tooth and nail for that market.
If U.S politicians could have blocked the Chinese without consequences they would have done it a LONG TIME AGO because there are a lot of neocons desperate to stop the Chinese tech industry, but insiders in the industry, you know the people who REALLY know the dynamics of the semiconductor industry are the ones who are opposing any more sanctions, they know once the have lost the Chinese market, is over, they will never get it back and worse those Chinese companies that once where small like AMEC, Naura, kingsemi, ACM, SMEE and so on they will become global competitors because the Chinese market is huge and in an niche industry like semiconductor equipment and software the last thing you want is competition.

gadgetcool5 said:

The Dutch firm that investors are going wild over is now creating a machine that could redefine electronics​

High NA is set to be even bigger, more expensive and more complicated than ASML’s current EUV machine.

“It includes a novel optics design and requires significantly faster stages,” an ASML spokesperson told CNBC. They added that the High NA machine has a higher resolution that will enable 1.7x smaller chip features and 2.9x increased chip density.

In July, Intel CEO Pat Gelsinger said the company expects to be the first recipient of ASML’s High NA machine.

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Great, that cost will passed to your next graphics card, that is why competition is important.

tokenanalyst said:

Great, that cost will passed to your next graphics card, that is why competition is important.

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Monopolies are never a good thing.

techfrontier said:

Conditional on the US not placing them on the Entity List

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China is placing them on the sanctioned list.

techfrontier said:

placing who on what sanction list? China wants to buy something from the US, the US won't sell it. If China doesn't allow its firms to buy from the US, an even bigger win

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The sanctions would be on US companies.

techfrontier said:

Conditional on the US not placing them on the Entity List

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If that happens, then they'll become ahead and self-sufficient. The desperate trick backfires on the US time and time again when dealing with China but in a panic, that's still all they can think of and they run on fear-driven instinct to repeat the same mistakes...

techfrontier said:

placing who on what sanction list? China wants to buy something from the US, the US won't sell it. If China doesn't allow its firms to buy from the US, an even bigger win

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You mean even bigger than the trade war? LOLOL Only for China. China will make it ourselves. We are the largest population in the world with the highest STEM focus, the strongest performing mathematicians in all scholastic competitions, and with the fastest national growth. The only thing holding China back is laziness and foreign market penetration by established players in difficult/high barrier industries. When those forces are removed, China can only win and only China can win.

techfrontier said:

US GAO report from 2002: "Although the stated practice of U.S. export agencies has been to keep China two generations behind state of the art semiconductor production capabilities, U.S. regulations do not describe the level of allowable technology that can be exported to China relative to the commercial state of the art"

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Strategy made in 2002, and it was working too, until about 2018. And just like that with Trump, China's on its way to being the only nation on earth self-sufficient in every step of the semiconductor manufacturing process closing the gap with every top company in the world by the day. Pres. Xi tried to warn them to get to work on the lithographs/chips, but nobody listened. Chinese firms took national funding money, spent a bit of it pretending to do research, and partied the rest of it away. They needed an enemy to wake them up and now they finally got it. We really do owe the Ruskies one for putting Cadet Bone Spurs in the oval office...

techfrontier said:

It's been 4 years since 2018 and China still has no commercial ArF immersion scanner, a technology first deployed in 2004.

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4 years? That's all? How long did it take to originally develop it and get it to market? Why did you put "commercial" in there? Is it because prototypes are testing and being refined?

Don't worry about 4 short years; this is a marathon competition... if the US can hold on that long that is.

techfrontier said:

"SMIC has been negotiating with ASML since early 2021 to expand the size of DUV equipment purchases. However, the U.S. government’s tightening of regulations on semiconductor equipment has disrupted SMIC’s DUV purchases. However, as it was belatedly confirmed that DUV equipment was excluded from the U.S. sanctions, SMIC decided to increase imports of DUV equipment from ASML. Currently, 30 percent of ASML’s sales come from China and most of them are sales of DUV equipment to SMIC."

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Yeah, even after China's domestic commercial DUV is ready, it would take a while to make enough to meet demand. ASML purchases are still useful in the meantime. I thought that's obvious.