Chinese semiconductor industry

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tokenanalyst

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"And even SMEE’s 90 nm tool is only a prototype, generating no sales"
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Do yourself a favor and do not quote from that guys, they are just 3 guys from a National security think tank group with no knowledge in the industry or China in general. i would recommend to find a more official source.
 

FairAndUnbiased

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"And even SMEE’s 90 nm tool is only a prototype, generating no sales"
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Really? You can have exactly 0 sales from 90 nm tools while having 40% market share in packaging, power, MEMS and LED lithography? Exactly 0 sales? You do realize that sales information is always held extremely tightly by any company?

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Meanwhile, SMEE has made a great deal of progress in the back-end advanced packaging and LED/MEMS/power devices area. In the former segment, the company holds over 80% of the domestic and nearly 40% of the global market; its share in the global LED/MEMS/power devices lithography equipment industry is around 20%.
 

tokenanalyst

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Really? You can have exactly 0 sales from 90 nm tools while having 40% market share in packaging, power, MEMS and LED lithography? Exactly 0 sales? You do realize that sales information is always held extremely tightly by any company?

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I still remember that CSET guys are getting those assertions from from the blog of Chinese guy name Doug Fuller don't even related to the industry, he even said that SMEE didn't even have a Arf lithography machine and when people told him he was wrong, he immediately changed his position and said "that although they have an ArF machine, it is said that they only use it for laboratory experiments" without obviously presenting official evidence.
 

FairAndUnbiased

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I still remember that CSET guys are getting those assertions from from the blog of Chinese guy name Doug Fuller don't even related to the industry, he even said that SMEE didn't even have a Arf lithography machine and when people told him he was wrong, he immediately changed his position and said "that although they have an ArF machine, it is said that they only use it for laboratory experiments" without obviously presenting official evidence.
Why would they advertise it as a sales product if it's only for lab experiment? There's even equipment for production in my lab that aren't for sale because they are highly customized and used for QC benchmarking. An experimental equipment wouldn't be anywhere near the sales website.
 

tokenanalyst

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Why would they advertise it as a sales product if it's only for lab experiment? There's even equipment for production in my lab that aren't for sale because they are highly customized and used for QC benchmarking. An experimental equipment wouldn't be anywhere near the sales website.
Exactly, also this machines are pretty hefty, they required a lot of power and a lot of secondary equipment, having a 90nm machines without the rest of the of a multi million dollar fab is a joke and more when the machine alone cost more than your lab. Is more when easier for a university manufacture their chips in a commercial fab.
Maybe the are misinterpreting a very likely client for this kind of machine as a university lab, the Chinese military, Norinco, Cetc, Poly Technologies, AVIC and so on. I think SMEE front-end machines are used a lot for the Chinese military companies to make their chips.
 

manqiangrexue

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here is substantial dependence across a substantial base of Chinese industry for foreign technology: aerospace, semiconductors, instrumentation, chemicals, etc...
Most of which is due to free market forces (making the matter usage choice rather than true dependence) but all of which are closing rapidly due to the hostilities that Trump initiated. West's dependence on Chinese manufacturing in order to sustain an attractive lifestyle, however, is growing judging by the export trends.
75% was an underestimation. Its actually 85% foreign according to this source
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China has the technology to build this aircraft but very few components such as the engine still need to be brought up to world commercial standards while others deliberately use foreign sources for market access. China's goal was not to make a passenger jet that would corner the Chinese market but it was to have global penetrance. One needs look no further than the Y-20 to see what China can actually make.
The point is to show some incremental progress (concrete) that is solid enough to be announced publicly in reports and news articles, and not be stuck in the same spot since 2016.
That's not the point at all; the point is bring Chinese lithography to the highest standards of the world as smoothly and quickly as possible and that does not mean to accurately announce realtime progress to the public. The same strategy was used to make the US miscalculate on the timeline for the J-20.
 

dfrtyhgj

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Chinese lithography is done, that's why the US demanded customer list out of TSMC and Samsung, they thought China was fabbing it there. No, China is fabbing it 100% domestically already and there will be no announcements. We'll be able to buy the products in the nearest future.
 

coolieno99

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That’s unfortunate. I hope this doesn’t become like the COMAC C919 when we expect it to come out anytime but keeps getting delayed. Do you guys think this was what the other older nationalist was referring to on Weibo urging China not to decouple and even suffer humiliation to prevent decoupling? I wonder if he said it because he felt China is behind and is testing the waters to allow the government to concede on some aspects in the future.

this directly contradicts Tom fowdy saying EUV coming in 2023.
China is doing the right thing by going slow in the certification of COMAC C919 . After the 2 fatal crashes involving the new BOEING 737MAX killing over hundred passengers(caused by flight control software problem), it's better be slow and cautious in certifying a new plane like the C919. It probably take most of 2022 to complete the remaining certification tests . This is China's first mid-size passenger jet, and it's better be overly cautious and thorough in certification tests to prevent a 737MAX type accident.
 
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