Chinese semiconductor industry

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gadgetcool5

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tokenanalyst said:
75% percent? citation needed. The number i heard from asia nikkei was 40% mostly from US European joint ventures, in my opinion buying from Europeans is fine as long they behave, i don't China think should isolate itself, but the problem is the U.S, they have demonstrated again and again that they are not a trusted economic supplier and they are very prone to irrational behavior, in that case Chinese companies should de-Americanize their technological supply chains as much as possible before 2024-2025 if they want to survive. Why? because of the high probability of Trump winning a second term. I think There is high probability of the Chinese hawks in the Trump administration to try to impose a tech embargo to China. Because they are irrational and they don't care how many high paying jobs the U.S. they lose as long as they convince themselves that they are winning.
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75% was an underestimation. Its actually 85% foreign according to this source
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Yes China should de-americanize its semiconductor supply chains but it should focus first on commercializing the 90nm SMEE lithography machine and publish statistics on annual sales trends for this machine. If there are positive sales trends this year with sales increasing over last year, that's a good sign. Then it can prototype a 65nm machine. 28nm is too ambitious IIRC. The point is to show some incremental progress (concrete) that is solid enough to be announced publicly in reports and news articles, and not be stuck in the same spot since 2016.
 
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tokenanalyst

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gadgetcool5 said:
75% was an underestimation. Its actually 85% foreign according to this source
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Yes China should de-americanize its semiconductor supply chains but it should focus first on commercializing the 90nm SMEE lithography machine and publish statistics on annual sales trends for this machine. If there are positive sales trends this year with sales increasing over last year, that's a good sign. Then it can prototype a 65nm machine. 28nm is too ambitious IIRC. The point is to show some incremental progress (concrete) that is solid enough to be announced publicly in reports and news articles, and not be stuck in the same spot since 2016.
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Notes:
*limits of the methodology: each supplier is considered of equal importance, therefore putting on equal footing landing gear, harness, avionics and winglet manufacturers (among others). A part (2/2) of this blog post will attempt to correct this by correlating each supplier with their importance.
Another limit consists of the number of suppliers for each aircraft, especially for the COMAC C919. Are most/all suppliers present in the database? For the A320 and B737 this is most likely the case, considering the number of suppliers present in the database for each aircraft. There are significantly fewer suppliers listed for the C919 (3 times less), but still enough to deem likely that most tier-1 and tier-2 suppliers are included. But this difference between the C919 and the two other aircraft is another factor that could add a discrepancy in the results.
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Forget about sales, that for now that is absolutely irrelevant. For now is about yield and performance, if they can make a machine that can deliver decent yield and decent performance, sales will come. In fact SMIC and most Chinese semi manufacturers have no other option than collaborate with SMEE to make a decent machine or face bankruptcy once the Americans ban the sales of ARFi machines to SMIC or China in general. Unlike the Comac This is not and i repeat this not a Chinese government issue alone anymore, this is about survival.
 
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Wangxi

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gadgetcool5 said:
75% was an underestimation. Its actually 85% foreign according to this source
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Yes China should de-americanize its semiconductor supply chains but it should focus first on commercializing the 90nm SMEE lithography machine and publish statistics on annual sales trends for this machine. If there are positive sales trends this year with sales increasing over last year, that's a good sign. Then it can prototype a 65nm machine. 28nm is too ambitious IIRC. The point is to show some incremental progress (concrete) that is solid enough to be announced publicly in reports and news articles, and not be stuck in the same spot since 2016.
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An article (with C919 chief designer Wu Guanghui) answered this claim yesterday
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Pkp88

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Based on this link which we've seen earlier we know they're capable of 4kHz 40W KrF lithography devices (
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) I also found this link helpful which addresses the suppliers for SMEE (
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) - here it confirms what I've seen from recruiting announcements on the suppliers is that 2023 is the target year for mass production of various components needed for 28nm level.
 
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xypher

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techfrontier said:
ArF immersion would have to have an ArF laser, my point is that if the KrF was only stable enough in 2020, then the ArF light source stability is going to be a few years out
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I don't understand what are you trying to say actually. SMEE SSA600/20 is a dry lithographic machine for 90 nm nodes that uses ArF excimer source. It has been produced since 2016.
 
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xypher

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techfrontier said:
oh, I thought the S&T award was awarded concurrently with technological development (it doesn't lag) and haven't there been well documented stories, from @gadgetcool5 and others on the SMEE SSA600/20's lack of commercial sales?
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Well documented? I don't think so, as far as I'm aware no one has posted SMEE's sales backlog or something equally credible. I think you posted some rumors from one of your previous twinks but that's not well-documented. Not that it would be realistically possible since the information on suppliers and vendors within the supply chain is not publicly available, leaking it would lead to a breach of NDA. That's why the US had to coerce TSMC & Samsung to provide their vendor lists.
 
FairAndUnbiased

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tokenanalyst

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techfrontier said:
ArF immersion would have to have an ArF laser, my point is that if the KrF was only stable enough in 2020, then the ArF light source stability is going to be a few years out
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They have it working for a years now. In fact they have a working ArF laser (20W 4KHZ) since 2011, by now the ArF ligth source is about 60W 6khz laser. The precision of the wafer stage and the low NA of the optics have been the biggest issue for SMEE with their front-end lithography machines. which has affected throughput. And because nobody was using the machine they didn't dedicated enough resources to solve the issues until Trump hit the with sanctions.
 
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