Chinese semiconductor industry

I very much dislike this trend of posting claims from various Twitter accounts that clear track records on this topic.

gelgoog said:

I doubt we would hear of it on the SSME site that soon. Given the sanctions and their initial limited production.
The sanctions would not impact their supply situation but might hamper their clients. Who knows which sanctions the US would use.

It takes time to do these sorts of machine tools and it would require massive investment and multiple concurrent efforts on the level of the ones on the atomic bomb program to make up the lag in technology up to EUV. Yes it is that hard.

I think they will eventually get the immersion lithography DUV machine working, as well as the EUV one, the question is will it be soon enough to have an impact or not.

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They will probably announced it in the news site of the company like they did with their new packaging lithography machine, a very low key announcement before they publish the machine in their product menu.

Bltizo said:

I very much dislike this trend of posting claims from various Twitter accounts that clear track records on this topic.

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does this Dai WeiWei guy have a good track record?

With the previously reported failure to match the 2000i Asml machine along with the previous report on this thread that the smee machine has not been put into the production line, it seems like these rumours add up to lack of success by SMEE. At this point I think we will have to wait and see official announcements and not but into rumours.

MortyandRick said:

does this Dai WeiWei guy have a good track record?

With the previously reported failure to match the 2000i Asml machine along with the previous report on this thread that the smee machine has not been put into the production line, it seems like these rumours add up to lack of success by SMEE. At this point I think we will have to wait and see official announcements and not but into rumours.

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Rumours are fine, so long as we apply some common sense and discipline.

Have a look at this guy's Twitter account and see what he sort of content he tends to tweet, and his record of making technically relevant posts, and think about what the likelihood is that he has accurate and up to date knowledge about the Chinese semiconductor industry.


In this thread we routinely chide mainstream English language media for their relative inability to report on up to date developments of the Chinese semiconductor industry -- but that doesn't mean it is okay to take every random tweet and rumour and entertain their potential plausibility.
The first question should always be -- are they worth our time in the first place

MortyandRick said:

does this Dai WeiWei guy have a good track record?

With the previously reported failure to match the 2000i Asml machine along with the previous report on this thread that the smee machine has not been put into the production line, it seems like these rumours add up to lack of success by SMEE. At this point I think we will have to wait and see official announcements and not but into rumours.

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I've been following this person for over a year on Twitter (He's Pro- China). He isn't some definitive source on Semiconductors or for that matter any specialized field. He's more like a commentator & usually posts his opinion on news that are already out there.

He most likely read somewhere that SMEE is struggling and decided to give his opinions on the subject. So nothing much to look here.

MortyandRick said:

does this Dai WeiWei guy have a good track record?

With the previously reported failure to match the 2000i Asml machine along with the previous report on this thread that the smee machine has not been put into the production line, it seems like these rumours add up to lack of success by SMEE. At this point I think we will have to wait and see official announcements and not but into rumours.

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I think the guy is referring to a post posted here months ago from this link and this rumor has been used a lot by some people in twitter to say that the SMEE machine "failed" without defining "failure.", like, failed against the 2000i model but bested the 1980i model???? I wouldn't be surprised if he read it from this site.

MortyandRick said:

this directly contradicts Tom fowdy saying EUV coming in 2023.

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I don't see how both are related. One is Huawei, the other is SMEE.

Xsizor said:

I don't see how both are related. One is Huawei, the other is SMEE.

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Yes but the way I looked at it, if they can’t make I’m wrong a 28 nm DUV machine, how are they going to make an EUV machine. SMEE also had experience with these machines, while huawei has not. So logically it would be related. I hope I’m wrong.

tokenanalyst said:

I think the guy is referring to a post posted here months ago from this link

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and this rumor has been used a lot by some people in twitter to say that the SMEE machine "failed" without defining "failure.", like, failed against the 2000i model but bested the 1980i model???? I wouldn't be surprised if he read it from this site.

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That page is gone. Is it the same source from 马督工？

MortyandRick said:

Yes but the way I looked at it, if they can’t make I’m wrong a 28 nm DUV machine, how are they going to make an EUV machine. SMEE also had experience with these machines, while huawei has not. So logically it would be related. I hope I’m wrong.

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I hope you are wrong too. To be frank, we have to assume some extremely nice things happening AND we have to assume Huawei has been working on it for some time.

Remember that SMEE's role is often to source and bring together many components and systems from other core equipment manufacturers. In that case, I don't see why Huawei would face difficulties in sourcing supplies from the same providers or other companies competing with them.