SinoSoldier
Colonel
In 2005 the Su35S would have been a great plane for the PLAAF. Not so much these days.
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Chinese purchase of Su-35
- Thread starter flyzies
- Start date
In 2005 the Su35S would have been a great plane for the PLAAF. Not so much these days.
Given the masses of J-7s and J-8s still in service, as well as incompatible Russian Su-27/UBKs nearing retirement age, and SAC's inability to mass produce Flankers in sufficient number to meet the exacting demands (J-11B/ J-15 and J-16s are all needed)... I don't see the Su-35 as a bad choice and if delivered within the next 3-5 years is bound to deliver a substantial boost in capability. Just think of them as replacements for the early Su-27s currently in service and try to tell me it's not a net positive.
Not saying it'll happen.
vesicles
Colonel
As USAF0314 said above, China has its own fighter program now. Even if China's own fighters are slightly inferior to the Su-35, it makes sense for China to deploy its own fighters instead of someone else's. It seems that most of the Su-35 proponents look at things in the short term. Yes, having the Su-35 will fill in the gap and will help China in the next couple years. However, China is not looking at only the next couple years. It is looking at the next couple decades and the next couple centuries. China is not in any immediate danger. There is no need for China to rush and fill any potential gap. China's goal and priority is to develop a mature domestic fighter program of its own. And they are close to the finish line. This is the time when they need to have that tunnel vision and focus and focus on that single most important goal: their own domestic fighter program from snout to tail. Anything else is just distraction. For instance, if China buys Su-35 now, a significant amount of money will have to go into buying the planes, logistics and personnel etc. This WILL compromise their domestic programs as the funds/talent that could be used to develop/modify domestic fighters would have to be diverted to Su35. That means valuable resources diverted away from their domestic programs (engines, etc) and they would have to wait even longer to achieve their goals.
Additionally, China is/should be much more ambitious that having a "modern" fighter fleet. About 20 years ago, China's goal was to catch up. Now, China's goal is to lead. That's why they are pouring so much money into developing the stealth fighters. that's why they declined to join the PAK-FA program. It would be a lot easier and quicker for the Chinese if they jointly develop PAK-FA with the Russians. To use the logic of those Su-35 proponents, it would "fill in the gap" a lot quicker. But China declined and chose to develop its own stealth fighters. It demonstrates one thing: China's goal is not simply having some modern planes, but develop its own domestic programs so that sometime down the road, China will lead the world in designing and manufacturing military planes.
The pace may be a bit slower in the short term, but in the long run, going all domestic will benefit China all the way. And having Su35 can only distract them and hurt their bottom line.
It's like you are digging a well. Someone comes over and tells you that they got a case of bottled water. Now, you still have enough water of your own to keep everyone alive, but having more water will definitely help. And your well is close to be done as it is already half full. Should you stop some of your diggers and send them to get the bottled water, or should you ignore the guy and keep digging the well that will give you infinite amount of the water forever?
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Engineer
Major
The idea that Su-35 will boost capability of PLAAF is simply an assumption that only bases on quantity. Such idea completely fails to take in account of logistic incompatibility that will decrease capability, such as inability to communicate with AWACs. Moreover, China can always go with more J-10 if SAC cannot produce enough J-11B, so the argument of using Su-35 as a stop gap measure simply isn't sound.
thunderchief
Senior Member
- Primary (more important) reason for China to buy Su-35 would be to ensure steady supply of 117S engines in case that WS-15 gets in trouble . Just like Su-27S and Su-30MKK ensured steady supply of AL-31s (and therefore J-10 project) , so would Su-35 ensure the same with 117S .
-Secondary (less important) reason to buy Su-35 could be potential "gap" if lets say Japan gets F-35 and India gets Rafale but J-20 gets delayed .
Therefore , if China declines to buy Su-35 it would be because :
a) They think that WS-15 is mature enough and will be in production in time
or
b) gap developed before the induction of J-20 won't be long or severe enough to warrant buying Su-35
Talk about incompatibility is , pardon my expression , pure hogwash . Russians on demand integrated French , Israeli and Indian equipment on Su-30 MKI and Mig-29K , so there is no reason they wouldn't do the same on potential Chinese Su-35s .
-Secondary (less important) reason to buy Su-35 could be potential "gap" if lets say Japan gets F-35 and India gets Rafale but J-20 gets delayed .
Therefore , if China declines to buy Su-35 it would be because :
a) They think that WS-15 is mature enough and will be in production in time
or
b) gap developed before the induction of J-20 won't be long or severe enough to warrant buying Su-35
Talk about incompatibility is , pardon my expression , pure hogwash . Russians on demand integrated French , Israeli and Indian equipment on Su-30 MKI and Mig-29K , so there is no reason they wouldn't do the same on potential Chinese Su-35s .
Engineer
Major
Neither of your reason makes sense, especially the first one.
Purchase of Su-35 would just means there will be Su-35 delivered, nothing more. It does not mean extra 117S for equipping another aircraft type. If China wants 117S for other purpose, then those additional engines will have to be negotiated separately just like when China orders extra Al-31F. Moreover, purchasing and equipping an engine for a plane is not like grocery shopping where you instantly get the items. An engine ordered today will take at least a year to be manufactured. Then, both aircraft and flight control system will have to be redesigned then tested accordingly to accommodate the new engines. These are extra work and require extra time, so will only cause further delay to the J-20 program. They are not going to speed up the engineering process. Given that there is no confirmed agreement to deliver Su-35 to China, any talk of extra 117S engines is just premature.
Your secondary reason was a rehash of the stop gap measure argument, which has already been retorted. As I have pointed out, if China wants stop gap measure, they can just go for additional J-10. In any case, the entire concept of stop gap measure makes no sense to begin with. First, given funding is limited, each inferior plane brought means one less J-20 can be purchased in the future. Second, those inferior planes will only be good as stop gap for 1~2 years, after which J-20 are still going to be needed. Third, those inferior planes aren't going to be retired just after 1~2 years. Those planes will see service for at least another 8 years, continuously sucking money from additional J-20 during all that time. So, not only does buying Su-35 for stop gap measure takes extra time and resources, it will going to make China further behind in a few years. I'm sure that's exactly what some wants to happen, but not from China's point-of-view.
As for what Russia did for the Indians on Su-30MKI and MiG-29K, that's entirely irrelevant. It does not change the fact that Su-35 is incompatible with China's existing infrastructure, thus acquiring the aircraft will decrease rather than increase the capability of the air force. Additionally, India can do nothing by itself, whereas China can pretty much do everything alone. There is no reason for China to pay extra to have someone else to do work that China itself can do. Most importantly, China isn't going to handover sensitive avionics to Russia to be installed. So, there is even less reason for China to go for the Su-35.
Purchase of Su-35 would just means there will be Su-35 delivered, nothing more. It does not mean extra 117S for equipping another aircraft type. If China wants 117S for other purpose, then those additional engines will have to be negotiated separately just like when China orders extra Al-31F. Moreover, purchasing and equipping an engine for a plane is not like grocery shopping where you instantly get the items. An engine ordered today will take at least a year to be manufactured. Then, both aircraft and flight control system will have to be redesigned then tested accordingly to accommodate the new engines. These are extra work and require extra time, so will only cause further delay to the J-20 program. They are not going to speed up the engineering process. Given that there is no confirmed agreement to deliver Su-35 to China, any talk of extra 117S engines is just premature.
Your secondary reason was a rehash of the stop gap measure argument, which has already been retorted. As I have pointed out, if China wants stop gap measure, they can just go for additional J-10. In any case, the entire concept of stop gap measure makes no sense to begin with. First, given funding is limited, each inferior plane brought means one less J-20 can be purchased in the future. Second, those inferior planes will only be good as stop gap for 1~2 years, after which J-20 are still going to be needed. Third, those inferior planes aren't going to be retired just after 1~2 years. Those planes will see service for at least another 8 years, continuously sucking money from additional J-20 during all that time. So, not only does buying Su-35 for stop gap measure takes extra time and resources, it will going to make China further behind in a few years. I'm sure that's exactly what some wants to happen, but not from China's point-of-view.
As for what Russia did for the Indians on Su-30MKI and MiG-29K, that's entirely irrelevant. It does not change the fact that Su-35 is incompatible with China's existing infrastructure, thus acquiring the aircraft will decrease rather than increase the capability of the air force. Additionally, India can do nothing by itself, whereas China can pretty much do everything alone. There is no reason for China to pay extra to have someone else to do work that China itself can do. Most importantly, China isn't going to handover sensitive avionics to Russia to be installed. So, there is even less reason for China to go for the Su-35.
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kwaigonegin
Colonel
I think everyone here is thinking too linearly i.e tunnel vision. We're looking at it strictly from a military/inventory/technical point of view. Remember generals don't buy SU-35s. It's the politicians who do.
While all the points given so far may be true to a certain extent, they are probably secondary in nature. IF china were to buy SU-35s it would be because of other 'factors' that would come with that deal and they may not necessarily be militarily or strategically related.
For all we know Putin may say to china, yeah buy a couple dozen SU 35s from us and I'll 'put in a good word' to my buddies at Gazprom about doing some joint ventures with Sinopec digging for some dinosaur bones in some gas fields in Siberia. (wink wink).
I can almost guarantee you that if this deal were to be penned it wouldn't be strictly just buying SU-35 with absolutely nothing more to it.
SinoSoldier
Colonel
1. A squadron of Su-35S is not worth a couple of 117S engines. When China bought the Al-31, they had not yet finished on the WS-10 and has nowhere near the number of engine programs it does at this moment.
2. Rafale does not need the Su-35S to be countered. A similar performing jet like the J-10B and J-15 would suffice. As for the F-35, many PLAAF fighters are upgraded with technologies found on 5th generation aircraft.
Equation
Lieutenant General
Perhaps, but than again the SU-35 will be nothing more than a political and economic bargaining chips for China to make deals with other countries, since it doesn't fit with any of China's avionics and weapons systems. The only places I can see China can us this bargaining chips are either Cuba, Venezuela, some parts of Africa and maybe Pakistan.
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thunderchief
Senior Member
Wrong . Russians know what is the main selling point of Su-35 . It is just a matter of bargaining : you need to buy X planes to get additional Y engines .
I said before , if China has confidence in WS-15 they would not buy Su-35 and 117S . And if they have their doubts , they would reconsider 117S (which btw is from the same famili as AL-31 already used on J-20 )
J-10B would not be good enough for F-35 (even Su-35 is not equivalent but could beat them in certain scenarios ) . And yes , J-10B currently needs Russian engines .
China will retain J-7s until 2020. and God knows how long will various versions of J-8 , J-10 and J-11 keep flying . I'm certain Su-35 is not inferior to these planes and could be used for long time even in the 5th gen environment .Yeah , like current Su-27 SK and Su-30 MKK hurt PLAAF badly
They are completely incompatible and should be scraped immediately You don't "hand" sensitive electronics . You provide blueprints for interface so they could communicate with other equipment . Do you think Israelis or French just handed over their secrets to Russia and India . Btw , if China ever wants to become big exporter of warplanes , it would have to provide this data to customers .