Not China, This Time, The SU-35 Is Going To Fight Against China
据俄罗斯《军工信使》周刊7月30日报道,作为俄罗斯武器装备的可靠订户,越南经常需要引进先进的歼击机、潜艇、护卫舰和军事技术,实现武器装备的更新换代,增强军事实力,从而担保保障国家安全,保护南海油气田,对抗中国。
根据美国能源信息局的数据,2012年越南在南海的天然气田储量总计24.7万亿立方英尺,油田储量44亿桶,而在一年前仅为6亿桶。美国分析师解释称,越南正在加紧勘探和开发沿自然资源和油气田,44亿桶的石油储量使越南成为亚洲地区仅次于印度和中国的第三石油大国。至于天然气储量,从2007年以来同样大幅增加,其中2005-2010年天然气开采量基本实现翻番。不排除相关数字今后再次大幅增加的可能,因为越南的地质勘探工作强度只会提高,不会下降。
近期中国在南海和一些邻国的领土争端不断激化,主要围绕南沙、西沙群岛和黄岩岛。专家预测,南海争议水域大陆架蕴藏着大量的石油、天然气和矿产。越南、中国台湾、马来西亚、文莱和菲律宾都在和中国争夺领土,特别是越南和菲律宾。专家担心南海领土争端可能会演变成地区冲突。现在各方都面临两难选择:如果不巡逻,不捍卫自己的专属经济区权利,那么将面临可能丧失自然资源的危险;如果进行巡逻,可能会有对峙风险。不过,这些国家都在积极引进现代化武器系统。
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中国南海对整个亚太地区具有重要战略意义,因为一些重要的海上交通运输线经过南海水域,包括从波斯湾向东亚国家运输石油的航线。南海局势也令美国极其不安,美方多次干涉南海冲突,悍然声称南海是国际水域,否认任何国家的主权要求。
当前的地区局势客观上促使越南增加军事支出。根据简氏集团分析部的信息,2013-2017年越南GDP年均增幅将达到6.5%,能够负担需要水平的军事支出。如果说不久前越南军事拨款在GDP中约占3%的话,那么近期前景内这一比例将会增至5%。根据预测,2013-2017年越南军事预算将增加30%,由38亿美元增至49亿美元。
为了实现武器装备的更新换代,越南领导层准备继续奉行巩固与俄罗斯军事技术合作的方针,巩固越南作为俄罗斯第4武器进口大国的地位。最近4年的统计数据表明,印度成为俄武器最大进口国,约占35%,之后依次是中国(15%)、阿尔及利亚(14%)、越南和委内瑞拉。根据瑞典斯德哥尔摩国际和平研究所的统计,与2003-2007年相比,在2008-2012年间,东南亚国家军事产品总体进口规模增加了169%。主要刺激因素是地区海上边界争端导致关系紧张,特别是中国和越南或菲律宾的南海冲突。俄越加强军事技术合作的另外一个刺激因素是越南国防部长冯光青计划今年8月访问俄罗斯。在今年3月俄防长绍伊古访越时,越方强调准备继续深化与俄军事技术领域的合作,积极采购俄武器和军事装备。4月12日越南国防部副部长阮志咏在河内会见俄联邦军事技术合作局副局长济尔卡恩,赞同巩固和进一步发展越俄军事技术联系,讨论落实两国政府间军事技术合作委员会第14次会议协定的进程,一致认为近期两国在军事和军事技术领域的合作取得了重要成果,另外还还讨论了今后几年进一步深化两国军技合作伙伴关系的途径。
总之,毫无疑问,越南成为俄武器第四大进口国绝非偶然。最近十年越南大幅增加了苏式歼击机数量,目前越空军编成中已有12架苏-27SK/UBK和24架苏=30MK2V歼击机。第一项4架苏-27SK和1架苏-27UBK供应合同于1994年签订,在1995-1996年落实。第二项2架苏-27SK和4架苏-27UBK采购合同于1996年12月签订,在1997-1998年履行。2003年越南又采购了4架苏-30MK2V,于2004年接装。2009年签订了8架苏-30MK2V采购合同,于2010-2011年交付。2010年签订了最大规模的12架苏-30MK2V供应合同,于2011-2012年履行。目前越南还是苏-35新型歼击机的潜在用户。中国可能是苏-35的第一个进口国,中俄目前仍在继续谈判24架苏-35供应事宜。如果这项合同得到落实,越南空军将需要从数量和质量上进一步增强自己的航空武器库,为了达到与中国空军实力的均衡,不排除越南至少采购24架苏-35歼击机的可能。
越南海军在进口俄罗斯武器增强实力方面同样特别主动,目前俄在2016年前向越供应6艘636型常规潜艇的合同正在落实之中,首批两艘计划在2014年交付。也有消息称,第一艘将在今年年底前交付。这项合同是在越南总理2009年访俄时签订的。除了建造潜艇之外,俄方还要培训越南艇员,供应必要的配套设备和技术物资。636型柴电潜艇属于第3代常规潜艇,升级潜力较大,能在潜艇上整合新型武器,包括“俱乐部”反舰导弹系统,扩大攻击目标范围。越南进口的该型潜艇首次安装新型艇员生命活动保障系统(舱室减压和氮气消防系统),以及新型计算机系统。
俄罗斯泽列诺多尔斯克造船厂还在为越南海军建造第二批两艘11661E型“豹-3.9”级轻型护卫舰,计划分别在2016年和2017年交付。这项合同于2011年12月签订。此前越南已经在2006年签订了采购两艘该型战舰的合同,并于2011年完成接装。
今年年底前,越南海军还应当接装根据俄方转让的技术组装生产的6艘12418型“闪电”级导弹快艇的首艘。俄罗斯雷宾斯克市“信号旗”造船厂为越南量产该型导弹艇提供帮助,根据事先确定的日程,生产和运送配件、组件,组装首批6艘“闪电”导弹艇。越南造船企业在研制商俄罗斯圣彼得堡市“金刚石”中央海军设计局,以及制造商“信号旗”造船厂的技术监督下组装生产。越南计划总共装备10艘许可生产的12418型导弹快艇,其中6艘已经签订了建造合同,俄方从2010年开始向越方供应价值3000万美元的组装部件,预计将在2016年结束。越南还拥有建造另外4艘“闪电”快艇的优先选择权,预计越南海军会在本国企业组装的首批快艇交付之后行权,签订正式合同。
在交付海军装备的同时,俄方还向越南海军供应教学设备,其中“阿芙乐尔”科学生产联合体向越南供应了艇员模拟训练器,近期将会开始安装,预计今年秋天投入使用。越南还为“豹-3.9”级轻护舰和“闪电”级导弹快艇采购了模拟训练器,各有36个和56个战斗岗位。俄方在金兰湾援建艇员培训教学中心的工作也将要结束,今年11月将接收首批学员。“阿芙乐尔”科学生产联合体公司总经理希洛夫透露,俄方共有越南援建了两幢大楼,使用面积超过1万平方米,所有设备和装置目前正在安装之中。
俄对越南的军事技术转让并不局限于“闪电”级导弹快艇。俄“战术导弹武器”集团公司正在与越南合作,实现KH-35“天王星”反舰导弹生产的本土化。伊尔库特集团公司也将向越南航空航天协会转让“伊尔库特-200”无人机系统的生产技术。 越南在落实提高军队实力的战略框架内,不仅与俄罗斯合作,还从捷克、波兰、罗马尼亚、乌克兰、白俄罗斯和西欧国家进口武器装备,尽管最近十年来大约90%的进口武器来自俄罗斯。
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According to Russia's "military Messenger" magazine reported on July 30, as a reliable Russian weaponry subscribers, Vietnam often requires the introduction of advanced fighters, submarines, frigates and military technology, upgrading weaponry, military strength, which guarantees protection national security, protection of the South China Sea oil and gas fields, against the Chinese.
According to the U.S. Energy Information Administration data, in 2012 the Vietnamese in the South China Sea gas field reserves total 24.7 trillion cubic feet, oil reserves of 44 billion barrels, while only 6 million barrels a year ago. U.S. analysts explained that Vietnam is stepping up exploration and exploitation of natural resources and oil and gas fields along the 44 billion barrels of oil reserves make Vietnam Asia after India and China's third big oil. As natural gas reserves, the same since 2007, a substantial increase in the amount of natural gas in 2005-2010 which basically doubled. The corresponding figures in the future does not rule out the possibility of a substantial increase again because the intensity of geological exploration work in Vietnam will increase, not decrease.
Recently China and some of its neighbors in the South China Sea territorial disputes continue to intensify, mainly around the Nansha, Xisha and the Huangyan Island. Experts predict that the continental shelf waters of the South China Sea dispute vast deposits of oil, gas and minerals. 越南, China Taiwan, Malaysia, Brunei and the Philippines and China are competing territorial, especially Vietnam and the Philippines. Experts worry that the South China Sea territorial disputes may evolve into regional conflicts. All parties are now faced with a dilemma: If you do not patrol, do not defend their right to the exclusive economic zone, it will face the risk of possible loss of natural resources; patrol if there may be risks confrontation. However, these countries are now actively introduce modern weapons systems. - South China Sea to the entire Asia-Pacific region has important strategic significance, because some important maritime transport lines through the South China Sea waters, including East Asian countries from the Persian Gulf to oil transportation routes. The situation in the South China Sea also make the United States is extremely disturbing, the U.S. interference in the South China Sea conflict repeatedly, brazenly claiming the South China Sea is international waters, denying any country's claim to sovereignty. The current situation in the region objective to promote Vietnam increased military expenditures. According to Jane's Information Group Analysis Division Vietnam, 2013 - 2017 average annual GDP growth rate will reach 6.5 percent, can afford the level of military spending needs. If we say that not long ago the Vietnamese military funding accounts for about 3% of GDP, then the near-term prospects within this proportion will increase to 5%. According to projections, 2013 - 2017 Vietnamese military budget will increase by 30%, from $ 3.8 billion to $ 4.9 billion. In order to achieve the upgrading weaponry, Vietnamese leaders prepared to continue to pursue the consolidation of military-technical cooperation with Russia's policy to consolidate Vietnam as a major importer of Russian weapons fourth position. Last four years, statistics show that India became the largest importer of Russian weapons, accounting for 35%, followed by China after (15%), Algeria (14%), Vietnam and Venezuela. According to the Stockholm International Peace Research Institute, compared with 2003-2007, in 2008-2012, the Southeast Asian countries overall size of imports of military goods increased by 169%. Stimulating factor is the main maritime border dispute led to strained relations, especially in China and Vietnam or the Philippines, South China Sea conflict. Russia and Vietnam to strengthen military-technical cooperation is another stimulus plan Vietnamese Defense Minister Phung Quang Thanh's visit to Russia in August this year. In March this year, Russian Defense Minister Sergei Shoigu visit to Vietnam, the Vietnamese side stressed prepared to continue to deepen cooperation with the Russian military-technical cooperation, actively purchasing Russian weapons and military equipment. April 12 Vietnamese Deputy Defense Minister Nguyen Chi Yong met with the Russian Federation in Hanoi Deputy Secretary for Military and Technical Cooperation economic Er Kaen, agreed to consolidate and further develop the more Russian military technical contact to discuss the implementation of the military-technical cooperation between the two governments Committee on 14th The process of conference agreements, the two countries agreed that the recent military and military-technical cooperation has achieved important results, in addition to also discussed the next few years to further deepen bilateral military technology partnership approach. In short, there is no doubt that Vietnam became the fourth-largest importer of Russian weapons accident. A substantial increase in recent years in Vietnam the number of Soviet fighter, currently more than 12 Air Force compiled in Soviet -27SK/UBK and 24 Su = 30MK2V fighter. The first four Su-27SK and Su-27UBK a supply contract signed in 1994, implemented in 1995-1996. The second two Su-27SK and four Su-27UBK procurement contract signed in December 1996, in 1997-1998 fulfilled. 2003 Vietnam has purchased four Su-30MK2V, tipping in 2004. 2009 signed eight Su-30MK2V procurement contracts for delivery in 2010-2011. 2010 signed the largest 12 Su-30MK2V supply contracts in 2011-2012 fulfilled. Currently Vietnam is the new Su-35 fighter of the potential users. China may be the first Su-35 importing countries, Russia is continuing negotiations supply 24 Su-35 matters. If this contract have been implemented, the Vietnamese Air Force will need to further enhance the quantity and quality of their air arsenal in order to achieve equilibrium with the strength of the Chinese Air Force, does not exclude the Vietnamese at least 24 Su-35 fighter purchase possible. Vietnamese Navy in the import of Russian weapons equally special initiative to increase their strength, currently Russia in 2016 to more supply 6 636 conventional submarines of the contract being implemented, the first batch of two planned delivery in 2014. The good news is that the first one will be delivered before the end of the year. The contract is in Vietnamese Prime Minister's visit to Russia in 2009 when signed. In addition to the construction of submarines, the Russian side also trained Vietnamese crew, supply the necessary equipment and technical supplies. 636 diesel-electric submarines belonging to the 3rd generation of conventional submarines, upgrade potential, able to integrate new weapons and submarines, including the "Club" anti-ship missile system, expanding target range. Vietnam imports of the submarine crew first installed a new security system life activities (cabin decompression and nitrogen fire systems), as well as new computer systems. 俄罗斯泽列诺多尔Gdansk Shipyard is also building a second batch of the Vietnamese Navy two 11661E-type "Leopard -3.9" class corvettes, plans were in 2016 and 2017 delivery. The contract signed in December 2011. Earlier in 2006, Vietnam has signed a purchase two warships of this type of contract, and in 2011 completed tipping. Before the end of this year, the Vietnamese Navy should also tipping technology transferred under Russia's six 12418 assembly-type "lightning" class missile boats of the first vessel. 俄罗斯雷宾Minsk City "flag" for the Vietnamese shipyard production of this type of missile boats to help, according to a predetermined schedule, production and delivery of parts, components, assembly of the first six "Lightning" missile boats. Vietnam shipbuilding enterprises in the development of Russia's St. Petersburg business "diamond" Central Naval Design Bureau, as well as manufacturers, "flag" under the technical supervision shipyard assembly. Vietnam plans to equip a total of 10 licensed production of 12 418-type missile boats, of which six have signed a construction contract, Russia from 2010 to the Vietnamese side to supply $ 30 million worth of assembly parts, is expected to end in 2016. Vietnam also has to build another four "Lightning" right of first refusal boats are expected to Vietnamese Navy will assemble in their enterprises after delivery of the first boat trip right, signed a formal contract. In the delivery of naval equipment, while Russia also supply teaching equipment to the Vietnamese Navy, where "Aurora" Scientific Production Union supplied to the Vietnamese crew training simulators, the recent installation will start, is expected to put into use this fall. Vietnam also "Leopard -3.9" class corvettes and "Lightning" class missile boats procured training simulators, each with 36 and 56 combat roles. Russian crew training and teaching at Cam Ranh Bay reconstruction work of the Centre will be the end of November this year, will receive the first batch of students. "Aurora" Scientific Production Association general manager Shirov said Vietnam had built two Russian total building area of over 10,000 square meters with all equipment and installations currently being installed. Russia's military technology transfer to Vietnam is not limited to "Lightning" class missile boats. Russia "tactical missile weapon" group of companies working with the Vietnamese cooperation to achieve KH-35 "Uranus" anti-ship missile production localization. Irkut Corporation Aerospace Association, Vietnam will also be transferred "Irkut -200" UAS production technology. Vietnam increased military strength in the implementation of the strategic framework of cooperation not only with Russia, but also from the Czech Republic, Poland, Romania, Ukraine, Belarus and Western European countries, the import of weapons and equipment, although about 90 percent over the past decade the import of weapons from Russia.