Chinese purchase of Su-35

SinoSoldier said:

1. If China's problem really is production rate, then they can simply invest the money that then perhaps they should invest the money in expansion of a production line itself or upgrading those old Su-27 rather than retiring them. With their huge variety of programs, there is no reason for 601 to be stuck due to shortage of options.

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Investing in increasing SAC's production will take how many years to reap a greater effective production rate?
Upgrading those old Su-27s to further divert SAC's resources from J-11B/15/16 production and its numerous other programs?

There's no shame in buying russian.

2. None of the technologies on the Russian jet is used by the Chinese. But how much of technologies does China need? 117S? China did not buy it when it was offered to them during Zhuhai 2012. Radar? China has tested multiple AESA radars and judging from both the manufacturers' claims, it is not needed. Rear facing radar? If the PLAAF has the option to choose its AESA radars through competition and selection, a rear facing radar shouldn't be hard to hammer out. Ability to use multiple types of weapons? J-15 and J-16 does that. Even if the irbis e has an advantage over hte AESA in testing, then that gap would be small and the Chinese would definitely have a better option sooner or later.

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I believe the PLAAF acquiring Su-35 is not because Su-35 is necessarily "superior" to existing SAC flankers, but rather they just want to make up the numbers because their own producit cannot produce enough in the projected procurement schedule. the fact that Su-35 has certain superior capabilities which SAC flankers lack is merely incidental.

So I feel like there are two sides to my argument:
1: Su-35 is superior to current and near term SAC flankers in kinematics, electronics, weapons suite
2: The reason PLAAF are procuring Su-35s IS NOT exclusively due to the above reasons, but more to make up a shortfall in numbers. That is to say, if Sukhoi didn't have Su-35 but a plane more like J-11B (lacking Al-41, rear facing radar, etc), PLAAF may still have gone for it, just to make up SAC's own slow producit

3. Russia's jet is simply too similar to the J-11B to make much of a difference or change in procurement patterns.

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That doesn't even make sense.

Even if the J-11B doesn't have a comparable engine or rear facing radar, that difference should be rendered null when it comes to how much money China has to pay compared to how much it can spend upgrading her own fleet.

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How will upgrading the existing fleet of J-11Bs or trying to add airframe hours to old J-11As or SKs solve the problem that SAC simply can't produce enough flankers for the PLAAF in the time scale?
You mentioned investing to increase production rate.

Fine good. It may take 5 years for that to kick in.
But PLAAF sees a shortfall in flankers after just 3 years. How will they solve that?

4. China's MoD made it clear. It not only stated that such reports were untrue, but also that the plane did not fit China's situation.

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The fact that a chinese delegation recently viewed an Su-35 performing for them suggests otherwise.




I don't believe as of yet the PLAAF will necessarily buy Su-35s, but bad timing + SAC's own slow produciton rate makes a compelling reason. the fact that Su-35 is better than SAC flankers is almost irrelevant.

thunderchief said:

Why wouldn't they ? You have French and Israeli avionics as well some indigenous systems on Indian Migs and Suhois . It is all just a question of time and money , and China as a customer could choose what ever it needs .

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So far I have not seen any mig-29 or Su-27 flanker series aircraft capable of firing French Mica or AIM-120 BVRAAM. Those avionics you mention install are just jamming device , not radar, datalink which PLAAF demanded. While datalink and radar compatibility with yr desire weapon are critical in solving logistic and doctrine problem.

As for Russian, doing that will for Chinese will mean losing a source of revenue for ammunition support and greater leverage for their product.

The J-11B compatible with domestic Chinese ammunition is carry out completely by Chinese themselves. Russian never approve such move or involve.

Bltizo said:

Investing in increasing SAC's production will take how many years to reap a greater effective production rate?
Upgrading those old Su-27s to further divert SAC's resources from J-11B/15/16 production and its numerous other programs?

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Photos show that the J-15 and J-11BH fighters were being built simultaneously; production lines are likely closely linked.

Bltizo said:

There's no shame in buying russian.

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There isn't.

Bltizo said:

I believe the PLAAF acquiring Su-35 is not because Su-35 is necessarily "superior" to existing SAC flankers, but rather they just want to make up the numbers because their own producit cannot produce enough in the projected procurement schedule. the fact that Su-35 has certain superior capabilities which SAC flankers lack is merely incidental.

So I feel like there are two sides to my argument:
1: Su-35 is superior to current and near term SAC flankers in kinematics, electronics, weapons suite
2: The reason PLAAF are procuring Su-35s IS NOT exclusively due to the above reasons, but more to make up a shortfall in numbers. That is to say, if Sukhoi didn't have Su-35 but a plane more like J-11B (lacking Al-41, rear facing radar, etc), PLAAF may still have gone for it, just to make up SAC's own slow producit

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Fair enough. However, it doesn't make much sense for the PLAAF to purchase planes to make up for their own numerical gaps, all the while producing the J-15 and J-16 at the same time. If their aim is to induct their new technology as fast as they can, then adding another new J-15 production line would solve the problem. If their goal to get fighters in numbers, they can stop retiring old ones. If the PLAAF were not producing any similar planes, then it would make sense for them to purchase. However, that is not the case.

Bltizo said:

How will upgrading the existing fleet of J-11Bs or trying to add airframe hours to old J-11As or SKs solve the problem that SAC simply can't produce enough flankers for the PLAAF in the time scale?
You mentioned investing to increase production rate.


Fine good. It may take 5 years for that to kick in.
But PLAAF sees a shortfall in flankers after just 3 years. How will they solve that?

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Or perhaps they can stop scrapping old ones. Or perhaps they can increase their land based J-15s by a couple of regiments. Increasing J-15 production shouldn't be such a big issue even if the first batches are delivered to the navy instead.

Bltizo said:

The fact that a chinese delegation recently viewed an Su-35 performing for them suggests otherwise.

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If that was the case then Sukhoi would certainly have reported it; they haven't.

Bltizo said:

I don't believe as of yet the PLAAF will necessarily buy Su-35s, but bad timing + SAC's own slow produciton rate makes a compelling reason. the fact that Su-35 is better than SAC flankers is almost irrelevant.

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Chinese Flankers should more or less in the same league with the Russian jet and might even have an electronic advantage should the reports be accurate. However there has not been a single case in any country when something is purchased to make up for a domestic unit, all the while producing a newer variant of that domestic unit.

Forgive my ignorance, but is there a lack of J-11B production? if there is, what makes people think that isnt intentional? Is china supposed to indefinetly build sukkois?

if there were a lack of production, im sure that china could simply ramp production if it wanted. its not a lack of Money, but a lack of will. They have overcapacity in many industry áreas.

kroko said:

Forgive my ignorance, but is there a lack of J-11B production? if there is, what makes people think that isnt intentional? Is china supposed to indefinetly build sukkois?

if there were a lack of production, im sure that china could simply ramp production if it wanted. its not a lack of Money, but a lack of will. They have overcapacity in many industry áreas.

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Agreed. The evidence that definitely slims the chance of production problems is the fact that they are building J-15 fighters at full speed and will soon start on the J-16.

SinoSoldier said:

Photos show that the J-15 and J-11BH fighters were being built simultaneously; production lines are likely closely linked.

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That is not relevant because if PLAAF does want Su-35, it means SAC still cannot meet PLA's demand for new flankers.

Fair enough. However, it doesn't make much sense for the PLAAF to purchase planes to make up for their own numerical gaps, all the while producing the J-15 and J-16 at the same time.

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Um how doesn't it make sense?

Let's say they need 60 new fighters for year 2014.
They can produce 40 of those, including J-15 and J-16. but they can't squeeze out that extra 20 and investment this year into expanding the production line won't kick in until 2016. They can't put anymore life into their J-11As and SKs, and if they just keep flying them they'll end up as flying coffins. What can they do?

If their aim is to induct their new technology as fast as they can, then adding another new J-15 production line would solve the problem.

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1: That doesn't make sense. Increasing J-15 production has nothign to do with inducting new technology?
2: adding a new J-15 production line is easy, is it? how many years will it take to actually kick in, after tooling and training up the entire new production line?

If their goal to get fighters in numbers, they can stop retiring old ones.

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What makes you think they haven't already exhausted all their other options such as refurbishing old planes? Or do you want them to fly coffins?

If the PLAAF were not producing any similar planes, then it would make sense for them to purchase. However, that is not the case.

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I'll repeat this. PLAAF are buying Su-35 not for the technology but for the numbers. The fact that it's similar to J-11B/16 if anything is a positive

Or perhaps they can stop scrapping old ones.

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So you end up with a regiments of old J-11As and SKs that may fall out of the sky at any moment.

Or perhaps they can increase their land based J-15s by a couple of regiments. Increasing J-15 production shouldn't be such a big issue even if the first batches are delivered to the navy instead.

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And how long will it take for "the not big issue" to actually kick in? A year? two? three? In that time the fleet will be shrinking if numbers don't make up for it.

If that was the case then Sukhoi would certainly have reported it; they haven't.

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The first few pictures here show Su-35 being displayed to a chinese delegation (difficult to tell of course, but there have been numerous russian military posters over on the other forums mentioning such a demonstration flight from reliable sources so I do not dout their reliability)


And fighters get displayed to everyone all the time. They've already heaped media with reports of how china is already going to buy su-35 (premature imho) so why would they bother to report a to-be-expected demonstration flight

Chinese Flankers should more or less in the same league with the Russian jet and might even have an electronic advantage should the reports be accurate.

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Yes and Su-35 is superior in practically every other aspect, and that's only if J-11B/15/16 are equipped with AESA with the stats you posted.
Oh and Su-35 is in a superior league to chinese flankers kinematically due to 117S.

However there has not been a single case in any country when something is purchased to make up for a domestic unit, all the while producing a newer variant of that domestic unit.

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That's because there has never been a single case in any country quite like China and russia vis-a-vis SAC flankers, has there?



So here are the points we've covered:
1: Su-35 > SAC flankers in most regards and definitely in the kinematic dimension. None of the superiorities are "game changers" like stealth, but they are superior nonetheless.
2: PLAAF would not be seeking Su-35 if they haven't exhausted other options for retaining fleet life or upping SAC's production
3: The fact that PLAAF are seeking out Su-35 which is a derivative of an aircraft which PLAAF has made an indigenous copy of is not illogical. It may be unprecedented, but it's also unprecedented for China to have effectively created their own flanker industry independent of the aircraft's home country.

kroko said:

Forgive my ignorance, but is there a lack of J-11B production? if there is, what makes people think that isnt intentional? Is china supposed to indefinetly build sukkois?

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It may well be intentional, as sinosoldier said they are shifting production to J-15 and J-16. But there's a good chance PLAAF miscalculated how many J-11B they'd need. In conjunction wiht PLANAF's demand for J-15, PLAAF's need for J-16, and the need for more J-11B-esque aircraft, they decided to forfeit J-11B production for the other two and procure Su-35s to lessen SAC's load and rebalance their fleet

If they could produce J-11B, J-15 and J-16 all simultaneously and at numbers the PLAAF find satisfactory, then they would and there would be no need for Su-35

if there were a lack of production, im sure that china could simply ramp production if it wanted. its not a lack of Money, but a lack of will. They have overcapacity in many industry áreas.

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Simply ramping up production probably isn't as easy as you make it sound.
And the chinese aircraft industry is not like the naval industry. the latter is highly capable and may have overcapacity. The former, in producing aircraft and high performance fighters definitely does not have over capacity.

AeroEngineer said:

You know what I think ?

It is WS-10A's fault. China is going to use AL-31FN for the initial J-20 production, but J-10B using AL-31FN is not good enough, so 117S come into play. But Russia is not going to sell 117S unless China buys 24 Su-35. So basically the 24 Su-35 is trashed from the beining, China will not even use them ! Just spend 1.5 billdion USD to open doors for 117S, thats it !!!

Then use 117S to equib J-10B, even J-20A.

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Such a preposterous theory highlights how there is no logical reason for China to sign a Su-35 deal in the first place. It reminds me of how early astronomers observed that Earth is orbiting the sun, only to have people came up with ever more ridiculous ideas to justify the faulty assumption that Earth is located at the center of the solar system.

As for J-20, the intended engine for the production version has always been WS-15. The existence of such a project indicates how there has never been any intention of involving Russian engines in the final products.

AeroEngineer said:

Again, you can go to Chao da and check it out. Everyone believes that the deal for 24 Su-35 is certain !

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This is a fallacy called , where you are asserting that something is true because many people are believing it to be true.

AeroEngineer said:

And recently Chinese airforce reps went to Moscow to check out Su-35 !! Why would they want to do that if they are not going to buy Su-35 ?

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There were never any evidence of Chinese representative checking the Su-35. On the other hand, Russian military representatives were checking out the JF-17 in Pakistan a while ago. Now, why would Russians do that if they are not going to buy the JF-17?

AeroEngineer said:

You see, it is all Shengyang Liming's fault, their sh!t engine WS-10A ruined the J-10, and now caused huge damage to the J-20 project.

WS-15 is not going to be ready until 2019 the earliest !! This is a fact.

Initially, China plan to use WS-10A for the flight test of J-20, and then use WS-10G for the J-20A. Now it is going to ge 117S.

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No. China is already test flying the J-20 with AL-31 engines. There is no "going to use 117S" for flight tests.

AeroEngineer said:

As for WS-10A, it is not that it has realibility or quality problems, it is thrusts and high by pass ratio.

WS-10A has 125KN which was 5 KN less that the intended 130KN, it has a by pass ratio of 0.8 which was significantly larger than AL-31FN's BP ratio of 0.6. Because of these two issues, J-10B equibed with WS-10A has no speed advantages over AL-31FN and less accleration than AL-31FN.

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Yet China is building more WS-10 engines instead of buying the 117S engines.

AeroEngineer said:

Now, if J-10B uses 117S it will have far greater speed, accleration, and agility. Remember 117S has 142Kn, a BP ratio of 0.62 and 3D TVC. J-10B using 117S will be better than Rafale even Typhoon. J-20A will also use 117S, because WS-10G, according to the latest report will not be ready until 2018 which is the same as the mighty WS-15 !!

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117S only has 142kN, while WS-15 will have 180kN according to the . Of course, WS-15 is still a few years from being readied, but waiting for 117S engines to be delivered then perform redesign, integration and testing is going to take similar amount of time. So, not only does your argument on performance fail to work, your assumption that time being favorable to 117S would also be incorrect.

AeroEngineer said:

Now you go figure !!

Conclusion: China spends 1.5 billion USD gets 24 useless Su-35 then trashed them right away, China will not even buy weapons for the Su-35s. Then it opens doors for the 117S. J-10B use 117S and the early batch of J-20 (J-20A) uses 117S too until WS-15 come online in 2019 !

Period !

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The conclusion is that China is not going to induct any Su-35. Simple.

Bltizo said:

That is not relevant because if PLAAF does want Su-35, it means SAC still cannot meet PLA's demand for new flankers.

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And yet somehow it is able to keep producing the new J-15 and is about to produce more J-16. Sorry, but that doesn't add up in light of the fact that the problem being theorized here is production capability

Bltizo said:

Um how doesn't it make sense?

Let's say they need 60 new fighters for year 2014.
They can produce 40 of those, including J-15 and J-16. but they can't squeeze out that extra 20 and investment this year into expanding the production line won't kick in until 2016. They can't put anymore life into their J-11As and SKs, and if they just keep flying them they'll end up as flying coffins. What can they do?

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So they push back the J-15 and J-16. There were numerous cases such as the J-10B and J-8 in which the program was stalled, but all that did was to push the timeline further back.

Bltizo said:

1: That doesn't make sense. Increasing J-15 production has nothign to do with inducting new technology?
2: adding a new J-15 production line is easy, is it? how many years will it take to actually kick in, after tooling and training up the entire new production line?

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Increasing production of it will make up for any shortage of J-11B that is currently rumored. If they can build J-11BH and J-15 simultaneously, then retooling a J-11BH line for a J-15 line would be significantly easier than adding a brand new one.

Bltizo said:

What makes you think they haven't already exhausted all their other options such as refurbishing old planes? Or do you want them to fly coffins?

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China operates similar number of Flankers as Russia, which has more men flying than China. Simple math is all it takes to show that China's shortage of fighter planes is miniscule or nonexistent and even if the problem is true, then China definitely is in a safe place to solve that issue than to turn to a country that is more likely to need Flankers more than China does. Especially when considering that China has not even retired its J-8 or J-7 yet in significant numbers when compared to old Flankers.

Bltizo said:

I'll repeat this. PLAAF are buying Su-35 not for the technology but for the numbers. The fact that it's similar to J-11B/16 if anything is a positive



So you end up with a regiments of old J-11As and SKs that may fall out of the sky at any moment.



And how long will it take for "the not big issue" to actually kick in? A year? two? three? In that time the fleet will be shrinking if numbers don't make up for it.

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Recent photos show that J-11BH production is still continuing. So why are they shutting it down? To make room for J-15? Out of money? Why are they buying fighters then? Isn't it wise to stick with the J-11BH instead of spending money to retool the line for the J-15 and J-16 which are also being built simultaneously?

Bltizo said:

The first few pictures here show Su-35 being displayed to a chinese delegation (difficult to tell of course, but there have been numerous russian military posters over on the other forums mentioning such a demonstration flight from reliable sources so I do not dout their reliability)

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And fighters get displayed to everyone all the time. They've already heaped media with reports of how china is already going to buy su-35 (premature imho) so why would they bother to report a to-be-expected demonstration flight

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The sources have been repeating the same old story for years now and so far their claims on other military purchases have been falsified. So far government and company sources have either not reported it or have outright denied it.

Bltizo said:

Yes and Su-35 is superior in practically every other aspect, and that's only if J-11B/15/16 are equipped with AESA with the stats you posted.
Oh and Su-35 is in a superior league to chinese flankers kinematically due to 117S.

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The Russian jet will mainly have a kinematic advantage while the Chinese one will have an electronic upper hand.

Bltizo said:

That's because there has never been a single case in any country quite like China and russia vis-a-vis SAC flankers, has there?

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Such a predicament does not require the same exact mentioned circumstances, does it? China is not the only country that has faced domestic shortage problems.

Bltizo said:

Investing in increasing SAC's production will take how many years to reap a greater effective production rate?
Upgrading those old Su-27s to further divert SAC's resources from J-11B/15/16 production and its numerous other programs?

There's no shame in buying russian.

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The benefits of investing locally are long term. The benefits of buying foreign is extremely short term, and arguably there will be loss as Russian weapons would have to be restocked and consulting fees would have to be paid to Russia over the lifetime of purchased aircraft.

Bltizo said:

I believe the PLAAF acquiring Su-35 is not because Su-35 is necessarily "superior" to existing SAC flankers, but rather they just want to make up the numbers because their own producit cannot produce enough in the projected procurement schedule. the fact that Su-35 has certain superior capabilities which SAC flankers lack is merely incidental.

So I feel like there are two sides to my argument:
1: Su-35 is superior to current and near term SAC flankers in kinematics, electronics, weapons suite
2: The reason PLAAF are procuring Su-35s IS NOT exclusively due to the above reasons, but more to make up a shortfall in numbers. That is to say, if Sukhoi didn't have Su-35 but a plane more like J-11B (lacking Al-41, rear facing radar, etc), PLAAF may still have gone for it, just to make up SAC's own slow producit

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My retorts are as follow. First, the newest SAC Flankers are not lacking in electronics and weapon suite vs. the Su-35. In fact, if we include criteria such as reliability instead of focusing on hard number in brochures, Chinese avionics would be better given China's healthy and mature IC industry. Second, PLAAF can always go for CAC if SAC is so incompetent. CAC is competent enough that there is no need to go foreign.

Bltizo said:

That doesn't even make sense.



How will upgrading the existing fleet of J-11Bs or trying to add airframe hours to old J-11As or SKs solve the problem that SAC simply can't produce enough flankers for the PLAAF in the time scale?
You mentioned investing to increase production rate.

Fine good. It may take 5 years for that to kick in.
But PLAAF sees a shortfall in flankers after just 3 years. How will they solve that?

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One should remember that investing domestically does not equate to investing into SAC.

Bltizo said:

The fact that a chinese delegation recently viewed an Su-35 performing for them suggests otherwise.

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Said by Russian media, the same media that have been saying China is buying the Su-35 and Tu-22 for a couple of years already. We have yet to see any contract being inked.

Bltizo said:

I don't believe as of yet the PLAAF will necessarily buy Su-35s, but bad timing + SAC's own slow produciton rate makes a compelling reason. the fact that Su-35 is better than SAC flankers is almost irrelevant.

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You are right that the issue of performance is irrelevant. The fact that Russians themselves stated any exported Su-35 will be fitted with Russian avionics pretty much rules out Chinese procurement.