Chinese purchase of Su-35

thunderchief said:

Well , currently China doesn't have engine comparable to 117S , nor radar with average and peak power comparable to Irbis-E . Things could change in couple of years , but I doubt these new engines and radars would end up in J-11 series . You need time to transit from design to prototype , then to initial production and finally to full scale production .And when that happens I expect J-20 and J-31 to be first recipients of new technologies , not 4th gen fighters like J-11 and J-10.

In the meantime , Su-35 could serve nicely , countering potential F-35 sales in the region .

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China already has a radar in service that would boast better performance than the irbis e, and since China was not interested in the engines when they were offered during the Zhuhai Airshow, it is assumed that they have something similar up their sleeves. There is no reason why China can't use the J-11B, J-15, and J-16 to fill that gap until J-20 and J-31. By the time Su-35 is delivered, the new stealth combat aircraft would have entered service already.

Bltizo said:

@sinosoldier

Irbis-E isn't a radar to dismiss despite being "merely" PESA, and we have no evidence to suggest any SAC flankers are equipped with said AESAs as of yet, so franco's statement stands.

Even if SACs flankers are equipped with AESAs, that doesn't change the fact that they're the equivalent of an F-15C being refitted with APG 63v3 to reach parity or slight superiority with Su-35s irbis. Su-35 is still kinematic ally superior, equipped with rear facing radar, and currently, a greater weapons suite.

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The Russian radar is very powerful, yes, but it is not something that China really wants at this moment. They already have a radar that provides better specifications. The J-11B, J-15, and J-16 most likely adopt AESA radars since (1) it was revealed during an exhibition, (2) there is a report released online from the manufacturer itself that suspiciously is similar to rumors about the radar, (3) it is widely reported that 607 institute, afte rlosing out to the J-10B radar bid, sent their radars to the J-11B, J-15, J-16 program instead, (4) PLAAF official Lei Qiang have stated that the J-15 has an AESA.

The J-11B, J-15, and J-16 are upgrades of older airframes, yes, but so is the Su-35.

Anyways, the radar:

SinoSoldier said:

China already has a radar in service that would boast better performance than the irbis e, and since China was not interested in the engines when they were offered during the Zhuhai Airshow, it is assumed that they have something similar up their sleeves. There is no reason why China can't use the J-11B, J-15, and J-16 to fill that gap until J-20 and J-31. By the time Su-35 is delivered, the new stealth combat aircraft would have entered service already.

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They could use SAC flankers to fill the gap... but SAC are busy with lots of other projects and PLAAF may have timed SAC's wind down of J-11Bs a bit early so need something to fill the gap.
Su-35s could definitely do nicely.

As to the qualitative superiority of one plane versus another, let's just put it this way -- at the present moment and for the forseealbe future, Su-35's radar/electronics suite, engines, and weapons suite will be greater than that of J-11B. J-15 and J-16 aren't fair comparisons, as J-15 is a carrier based aircraft and won't be deployed on land like J-11Bs or J-16s, and J-16 is heavily orientated towards strike.

SinoSoldier said:

The Russian radar is very powerful, yes, but it is not something that China really wants at this moment. They already have a radar that provides better specifications. The J-11B, J-15, and J-16 most likely adopt AESA radars since (1) it was revealed during an exhibition, (2) there is a report released online from the manufacturer itself that suspiciously is similar to rumors about the radar, (3) it is widely reported that 607 institute, afte rlosing out to the J-10B radar bid, sent their radars to the J-11B, J-15, J-16 program instead, (4) PLAAF official Lei Qiang have stated that the J-15 has an AESA.

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We still don't quite have concrete proof any of these aircraft are equipped with AESA, and I don't think you or I are in a position to claim what PLAAF does or doesnt' want.
Even if J-11B/15/16 are equipped with AESA, at best that will give them parity with Irbis E or maybe put them at an advantage. The russian plane has numerous other advantages which gives it an edge, and its much superior engines alone can put it in the lead.

I'd like to point out that J-15 and J-16 aren't fair comparisons to Su-35 given their roles.

The J-11B, J-15, and J-16 are upgrades of older airframes, yes, but so is the Su-35.

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Actually with the F-15C AESA refit comparison I was referring to J-11B only.
That is to say a J-11B without AESA is akin to the F-15C without AESA. vice versa.
Su-35 on the other hand is sort of an F-15C + F-15E weapons suite + F-119 engines + rear facing radar

Bltizo said:

They could use SAC flankers to fill the gap... but SAC are busy with lots of other projects and PLAAF may have timed SAC's wind down of J-11Bs a bit early so need something to fill the gap.
Su-35s could definitely do nicely.

As to the qualitative superiority of one plane versus another, let's just put it this way -- at the present moment and for the forseealbe future, Su-35's radar/electronics suite, engines, and weapons suite will be greater than that of J-11B. J-15 and J-16 aren't fair comparisons, as J-15 is a carrier based aircraft and won't be deployed on land like J-11Bs or J-16s, and J-16 is heavily orientated towards strike.

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There is no reason why the J-15 cannot be used to fill the gap. There is also no reason why the J-11B can't be either especially when they are planning to spend money on a Russian jet that will certainly cost a lot heftier than the domestic planes. If China wants to upgrade Russian jet using her own technology, such a feat would be redundant since the same could be, and has been, done to the J-11B. China's is very likely to have upgraded her Flankers with AESA, in accordance with the newest revealings of company papers, the grey randomes, official statements, and that should fill the gap effectively.

Bltizo said:

We still don't quite have concrete proof any of these aircraft are equipped with AESA, and I don't think you or I are in a position to claim what PLAAF does or doesnt' want.
Even if J-11B/15/16 are equipped with AESA, at best that will give them parity with Irbis E or maybe put them at an advantage. The russian plane has numerous other advantages which gives it an edge, and its much superior engines alone can put it in the lead.

I'd like to point out that J-15 and J-16 aren't fair comparisons to Su-35... but even if they do have AE



Actually with the F-15C AESA refit comparison I was referring to J-11B only.
That is to say a J-11B without AESA is akin to the F-15C without AESA. vice versa.
Su-35 on the other hand is sort of an F-15C + F-15E weapons suite + F-119 engines + rear facing radar

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Well, the F-15C AESA refit is simply a refit, whereas the J-11B and the Russian subsequent variants are essentially new. Scroll down and you'll see the paper for a radar whose specifications exactly matches the J-11B AESA claims.

SinoSoldier said:

There is no reason why the J-15 cannot be used to fill the gap. There is also no reason why the J-11B can't be either especially when they are planning to spend money on a Russian jet that will certainly cost a lot heftier than the domestic planes.

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J-15 won't be built for PLAAF because there's a certain ex ukrainian carrier lacking an airwing.

J-11B seems to be winding down production, or perhaps SAC's production rate can't meet PLAAF's requirements (that alone is a justifiable reason to procure Su-35s)

If China wants to upgrade Russian jet using her own technology, such a feat would be redundant since the same could be, and has been, done to the J-11B.

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Su-35 has many technologies that Chinese fighters do not field atm. 117s, its radar, rear facing radar, ability to use mulitple types of weapons.
The PLAAF won't want to upgrade the Su-35 with its "own technology" at best they'll modify it so it can datalink effectively with the rest of PLAAF's assets. But there's no need to change anything beyond that.

China's is very likely to have upgraded her Flankers with AESA, in accordance with the newest revealings of company papers, the grey randomes, official statements, and that should fill the gap effectively.

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Even if J-11B/15/16 are, or will be, equipped with AESA, that gives it radar parity or slight superiority over Su-35's radar at best.


I think we should distinguish between why PLAAF may want to procure Su-35, and whether that has any connection to its "superiority" with current SAC flankers.
Why: because SAC can't produce up to PLAAF's demand. An easy, and simple reason. PLAAF needs something to fill the gap which J-11Bs can't make up.
But the PLAAF probalby isn't acquiring Su-35 because it has all these gizmos and capabilities the PLAAF currently doesn't have. I bet if knaapo or irkut or whoever can produce J-11Bs at the same cost as SAC, then PLAAF would've simply gone that route to make up the numbers, but Su-35 is the closest thing they can buy. And it just so incidentally happens to be superior to SAC's flankers in numerous dimensions.

SinoSoldier said:

Well, the F-15C AESA refit is simply a refit, whereas the J-11B and the Russian subsequent variants are essentially new. Scroll down and you'll see the paper for a radar whose specifications exactly matches the J-11B AESA claims.

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No I mean...

Su-27Sk/J-11A = F-15A (cold war, SARH BVRAAMs)
J-11B = F-15C (mature SARH, ARH BVRAAMs, mature fourth generation SRAAMs, other relatively small enhancements)

So a J-11B and F-15C refitted with AESAs are just that, refitted. J-11B wasn't introduced with AESA, so I'm not sure what you mean by

F-15C is only a refit

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Su-35 on the other hand is equipped with near 5th generation engines, topped with near 5th gen radar, rear facing radar, and converted into a multirole plane..

I don't doubt that an AESA is in development for J-11B/15/16, but whether they are present on the aircraft or soon will be is another matter. And even if they are, that only gives it parity/slight superiority compared to irbis e.
AESA doesn't somehow make up for the shortfall in other capabilities vis a vis Su-35

SinoSoldier said:

China already has a radar in service that would boast better performance than the irbis e, and since China was not interested in the engines when they were offered during the Zhuhai Airshow, it is assumed that they have something similar up their sleeves. There is no reason why China can't use the J-11B, J-15, and J-16 to fill that gap until J-20 and J-31. By the time Su-35 is delivered, the new stealth combat aircraft would have entered service already.

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And what radar would that be ? Bear in mind that currently public data shows that Irbis-E beats even AN/APG-77 on F-22 . Irbis-E detects 3 m2 RCS target at 350-400 km , which translates to 265 - 303 km against 1 m2 RCS . AN/APG-77 has something like 200–240 km against 1 m2 RCS .

Again , I'm not saying China could not produce comparable or better radar , I'm saying it is not in service ,and it would take few years to get there . Same thing about engines .

Currently , J-11B is slightly better then latest F-15s . But , if neighboring countries get F-35 before China gets J-20 and J-31 (and there is a good possibility for that) , PLAAF would be at disadvantage . J-11 (even the B version) is just a late 4th gen fighter and it could not stand on its own against 5th gen fighter . But , with Su-35 China would get force multiplier , so even the 4th gen fighters would have a fighting chance .

Bltizo said:

J-15 won't be built for PLAAF because there's a certain ex ukrainian carrier lacking an airwing.

J-11B seems to be winding down production, or perhaps SAC's production rate can't meet PLAAF's requirements (that alone is a justifiable reason to procure Su-35s)



Su-35 has many technologies that Chinese fighters do not field atm. 117s, its radar, rear facing radar, ability to use mulitple types of weapons.
The PLAAF won't want to upgrade the Su-35 with its "own technology" at best they'll modify it so it can datalink effectively with the rest of PLAAF's assets. But there's no need to change anything beyond that.



Even if J-11B/15/16 are, or will be, equipped with AESA, that gives it radar parity or slight superiority over Su-35's radar at best.


I think we should distinguish between why PLAAF may want to procure Su-35, and whether that has any connection to its "superiority" with current SAC flankers.
Why: because SAC can't produce up to PLAAF's demand. An easy, and simple reason. PLAAF needs something to fill the gap which J-11Bs can't make up.
But the PLAAF probalby isn't acquiring Su-35 because it has all these gizmos and capabilities the PLAAF currently doesn't have. I bet if knaapo or irkut or whoever can produce J-11Bs at the same cost as SAC, then PLAAF would've simply gone that route to make up the numbers, but Su-35 is the closest thing they can buy. And it just so incidentally happens to be superior to SAC's flankers in numerous dimensions.

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1. If China's problem really is production rate, then they can simply invest the money in expansion of a production line itself or upgrading those old Su-27 rather than retiring them. With their huge variety of programs, there is no reason for 601 to be stuck due to shortage of options.

2. None of the technologies on the Russian jet is used by the Chinese. But how much of technologies does China need? 117S? China did not buy it when it was offered to them during Zhuhai 2012. Radar? China has tested multiple AESA radars and judging from both the manufacturers' claims, it is not needed. Rear facing radar? If the PLAAF has the option to choose its AESA radars from multiple corporations, a rear facing radar shouldn't be hard to hammer out. Ability to use multiple types of weapons? J-15 and J-16 does that. Even if the irbis e has an advantage over hte AESA in testing, then that gap would be small and the Chinese would definitely have a better option sooner or later.

3. Russia's jet is simply too similar to the J-11B to make much of a difference or change in procurement patterns. Even if the J-11B doesn't have a comparable engine or rear facing radar, that difference should be rendered null when it comes to how much money China has to pay compared to how much it can spend upgrading her own fleet.

4. China's MoD made it clear. It not only stated that such reports were untrue, but also that the plane did not fit China's situation.

thunderchief said:

And what radar would that be ? Bear in mind that currently public data shows that Irbis-E beats even AN/APG-77 on F-22 . Irbis-E detects 3 m2 RCS target at 350-400 km , which translates to 265 - 303 km against 1 m2 RCS . AN/APG-77 has something like 200–240 km against 1 m2 RCS .

Again , I'm not saying China could not produce comparable or better radar , I'm saying it is not in service ,and it would take few years to get there . Same thing about engines .

Currently , J-11B is slightly better then latest F-15s . But , if neighboring countries get F-35 before China gets J-20 and J-31 (and there is a good possibility for that) , PLAAF would be at disadvantage . J-11 (even the B version) is just a late 4th gen fighter and it could not stand on its own against 5th gen fighter . But , with Su-35 China would get force multiplier , so even the 4th gen fighters would have a fighting chance .

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Scroll page; the paper clearly said that the radar is in service. J-11B is not superior to the F-15SE, however it is capable enough to hold out for a couple of years even against stealthy aircraft; the radar company released specifications for it and the calculations are 450 km detection range for 1 m^2 target, 281 km detection range for 0.4 m^2 target, and 250 km detection range for 0.1 m^2 target, the 450 km range matches rumors of the J-11B radar made years earlier.